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Submitted ⁨⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago⁩ by ⁨fossilesque@mander.xyz⁩ to ⁨science_memes@mander.xyz⁩

https://mander.xyz/pictrs/image/4b46efac-bc14-4b99-a227-8e97409140f4.png

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  • LovableSidekick@lemmy.world ⁨43⁩ ⁨minutes⁩ ago

    I know the world has more than enough resources and productivity for everyone on it to live comfortably without overworking, but 30% is the lowest figure I’ve ever seen. Would like to know where that came from. I’ve seen so many widely varying estimates of everything.

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  • daniskarma@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨7⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

    Reading the study I get the following remarks:

    Living space, not great. 60m2 for a 4 person family. That’s tight. I live alone in a 90m2 house and I could use more space, do they want me to live in a 15m2 house or do they want to force to share living space? Sorry but I won’t compromise there. I prefer people having less children that me having to live as ants in a colony.

    That is just a personal pick with the DLS minimum requirements chosen.

    But still forgetting that. The reasoning is extremely faulty. Most of their argumentation heavy lifting is just relied to Millward-Hopkins (2022) paper establishing that 14.7 GJ per person anually is enough. That paper is just a work of fantasy. For reference, and taking the same paper numbers. Current energy usage (with all the exiting poverty) is 80 GJ/cap. Paleolitic use of energy was 5 GJ. Author is proposing that we could live ok with just triple paleolitic energy. That paper just oversees a lot of what people need to live in a function society to get completely irrational numbers on what energy cap we could assume to produce a good life.

    Then on materials used. The paper assumes all the world shifting to vegetarian diet, everyone living on multiresidential buildings, somehow wood as the main building material (I don’t know how they even reconcile that with multiresidential buildings…). And half of cars usage shifting to public transport How to achieve this in rural areas it’s not mentioned at all).

    A big notice needs to be done that both papers what are actually doing is basically taking China economy (greatly praised in the introduction) and assuming that all the world should live like that. And yes, probably the world could have 30 billion inhabitants if we accept to be all like China, who would we export to achieve that economic model if we all have a export based economy? who knows, probably the martians. And even then, while a lot of “ticks” on what a decent level of life quality apparently seems to be ticked, many people in western countries would not consider that quality life, but a very restrictive and deprived life standard.

    I’m still on the boat the people having less children is a better approach to great lives without destroying the planet. At some point a cap on world population need to be made, it really add that much that the cap is 30 billion instead of maybe 5 billion? It’s certainly not a cap in the number of social iterations a person can have, but numbers give for plenty of friends. And at the end it’s not even a cap on “how many children” can people have, as once the cap is reach the number of children will be needed to cap the same to achieve stability. It’s just a cap on “when people can still be having lots of kids”. Boomer approach to “let’s have children now” and expect that my kids won’t want to have as many children as I have now.

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    • Atlas_@lemmy.world ⁨7⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      You mad?

      Yes, to support everyone on what our economy outputs today will involve the quality of life decreasing for a lot of people. And the economy will have to change, to build the things that people need but are currently unable to pay for. This is unsurprising.

      Probably the living space is more to show this is feasible over it being the expected/desired solution. It would be very counterproductive to tear down good houses, but small apartments work well for “house single unhoused people”.

      Rural transport is a rounding error compared to the number of private cars that could be converted with minimal fuss in cities.

      Why would an export economy be a bad model? They literally have a surplus; all you need to do to fix it is… Make less?

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      • daniskarma@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨7⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        I’m not mad. I will just not allow anyone to reduce my living standards because they don’t want to use a rubber.

        A export model is not bad. I just said that’s unreasonable to think that all the world could follow that model. Because then “who would we export to?”. It’s like liberals thinking that the tax rate in a tax heaven are proof that every country could have those tax haven rates.

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      • tacosanonymous@mander.xyz ⁨6⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        They’re not mad, they’re just a bad person. Don’t use empathy in argument with someone who has none.

        Also, those numbers are like averages. Some places would have high rises to accommodate the sheer numbers of people, working or non-working.

        But yeah, I’d tear down my own fucking home right meow if it was for equality on a massive scale.

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  • Asswardbackaddict@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨hour⁩ ago

    Genocide normalization

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  • Iapetus@slrpnk.net ⁨6⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

    Imposing such a drastic change in living conditions for the the whole population of this planet is impossible. The rich will not allow it and everybody who isn’t worse off than the conditions suggested here will fight it. Most people won’t even consider going vegetarian, for fucks sake.

    Using this study as proof that there are enough resources to support billions more people is beyond stupid. Humans are not an altruistic species. We already have the money and resources to adequately support everyone already existing, but conservatives flat out refuse to and always have.

    Adding more people to this hellworld because some naive study assumes that at the last second of the eleventh hour before we hit 3c warming and run out of fresh water and arable land, we will evolve into a species capable of physics defing magic and perfect communism… is really, really, REALLY, fucking stupid.

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    • IndustryStandard@lemmy.world ⁨5⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      If we had less people companies would dump twice the amount of plastics in the ocean

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  • truthfultemporarily@feddit.org ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago

    Yeah but DLS would be a significant downgrade for many people, who already fight the suggestion to only eat meat six days a week tooth and nail.

    pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6013539/

    pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10537420/

    pubs.acs.org/doi/suppl/…/es3c03957_si_001.pdf

    Things that count as DLS:

    • 10 m² of personal living space + 20 m² for every 4 ppl as bathroom / kitchen
    • 2100 kcal/day
    • 1400 kWh/year, but this already includes public services (education/healthcare)
    • 1 washing machine per 20 ppl
    • 2.4 kg clothing / year
    • wear tops for three days and bottoms for 15 days without washing
    • 1 laptop per 4 people with a yearly power consumption of 62 kWh. (bizzarely they talk about an 800 MHz computer and seem to confuse HDD and RAM). If your gaming computer used 400 W you could use it for 150 hr/year.
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    • CaptainPedantic@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago

      I’m gonna need a lot more than 10 square meters of space if everyone is changing their shirts twice a week. Yuck.

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      • Velypso@sh.itjust.works ⁨16⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        On top of that, sharing 1 washing machine for 20 fucking people?

        In what world do the people writing this live? Have they never lived in an apartment building with shared laundry? The machines are never kept clean because people are fucking animals.

        What a stupidly naive study lmao.

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    • yimby@lemmy.ca ⁨4⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      The same paper addresses this directly. 86% of human beings live below this standard of living today.

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    • gandalf_der_12te@discuss.tchncs.de ⁨5⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      I’m actually in favor of keeping a lifestyle that wastes a lot of resources simply for the point that it guarantees that in times of crises, of unexpected shortages of products, there will still be enough products going around to sustain us.

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    • yeahiknow3@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨20⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      A simpler solution is to simply abolish wealth hoarding, impose sensible consumption limits (so, no cars or commercial plane travel, no meat, no 800 watt gaming rigs), and continue to encourage population decline. Boom, everyone is healthy, the air is clean, and you can keep your house.

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      • gandalf_der_12te@discuss.tchncs.de ⁨5⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        that’s how you start a civil war. lots of people will rebel against oppression

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    • BassTurd@lemmy.world ⁨21⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      I’d argue that’s a downgrade for most people. I personally exceed all of those bullet points and the idea of coming close to most of them sounds like Hell to me. If it meant 8.5 billion people met those standards, I could make the sacrifice, but it would be awful.

      Can you imagine if everyone you met was wearing a 3 days dirty shirt? Do other not sweat? And 2100 kcal per day is not safe or sustainable for almost anyone that exercises regularly.

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      • idiomaddict@lemmy.world ⁨20⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        And 2100 kcal per day is not safe or sustainable for almost anyone that exercises regularly.

        I’m a woman with a relatively large frame (~65kg/180cm) who used to do 14 hours of hard cardio a week. At that time, my recommendation was 2250, the first time in my life it had exceeded 2k. For smaller women, the recommendation is sometimes much lower. My stepsister is about 45kg and 155cm tall and her calculated daily calorie burn is like 1300. My ex boyfriend’s mom was told not to go over 1.2k, which I thought was the lower limit for humans generally- things are different when you’re a short, post-menopausal woman.

        All that is to say, it’s probably an average of 2100 calories, spread between people who need on average 1400-1800 calories and those who need 2000-2400

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    • LH0ezVT@sh.itjust.works ⁨14⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      I am amazed by all the people that, when faced with having to give up some of the first-world luxury they are used to, flip completely in their head. It is the opposite of not-in-my-backyard: Don’t take from my backyard, pls.

      Yes, I would rather have the current distribution continue, where hundreds of millions are literally starving, where there are people who would kill to live like this, where people are walking through the desert and taking dinghies over oceans for shit like this, just so I can have my amenities.

      Absolutely wild. We’re so doomed.

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      • gandalf_der_12te@discuss.tchncs.de ⁨5⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        where hundreds of millions are literally starving, […] just so I can have my amenities.

        Note that other people’s suffering is not always directly related to our lifestyle.

        Explain to me how the sudanese war is caused by our consumption of meat?

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    • gandalf_der_12te@discuss.tchncs.de ⁨23⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      1400 kWh/year

      that seems awfully low, considering that germany uses 37 000 kWh /year per person. But that already factors in things such as energy needed to produce your soda bottle, so it’s not “energy used inside your own house/apartment”.

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    • ChonkyOwlbear@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago

      And kill all the pets I assume.

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    • chonglibloodsport@lemmy.world ⁨23⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      The other question is: where are we living? It takes a lot more resources to live in Canada than it does to live in a warm climate to the south. Does that mean we all have to abandon Canada and crowd ourselves into the hot equatorial regions?

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      • usualsuspect191@lemmy.ca ⁨23⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        Yeah, that list sounds like literal prison. That’s a hard sell for a good chunk of people.

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      • truthfultemporarily@feddit.org ⁨23⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        They talk about it in the PDF. Basically its a weighted average. Some people live in colder climates and need more heating/clothes, others need less. It then averages out to those numbers.

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    • Cypher@lemmy.world ⁨18⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      Their idea of ‘decent’ is disgusting.

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      • LH0ezVT@sh.itjust.works ⁨15⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        Their idea of decent is a dream for a good chunk of the world population. We’re the privileged ones. People kill to live like us.

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  • amikulo@slrpnk.net ⁨8⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

    I agree that we can support everyone on earth if we change our social, economic, and political systems.

    I also think it is good that voluntary population decline is already happening and seems likely to continue in many industrialized nations.

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  • shalafi@lemmy.world ⁨21⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

    There was 3.7 billion people when I was born. Since I’m still alive we can guess that’s within a human lifetime.

    Since I was born, 73% of the animals on Earth are gone. Our ecosystems are already crashed, and no one notices.

    Remember COVID? When everyone stayed home and quit buying shit, laid low? Remember Venice seeing dolphins in the streets and Asians seeing mountains you couldn’t see before? Remember how quiet it was?

    SOCIETY can provide, EARTH cannot. Y’all gonna have to die. But hey, between global warming and tanking birth rates fucking our economies in both holes, win, win! The contraction will be of Biblical proportions. I won’t live it, my kids will. Good luck kids!

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    • HalfSalesman@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      I don’t think really that a majority of the population is going to die. I do think significant numbers of deaths will happen around the equator at some point in the near future and spark a functionally unstoppable wave of immigration towards the earth’s poles. This will result in its own strife but again will only cause a small percentage of more of the population to die.

      Thing’s will eventually stabilize as human civilization adapts and green energy and carbon capture take off. Most of the population will survive but almost everyone’s QoL will be NOTABLY worse by various conventional metrics. Though likely better in specific ways due to certain medical and automation advancements.

      Expect birthrates to continue to drop globally however and the earth’s eco system will drastically change and become much less healthy. Most of existing humanity will cling to life though.

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    • Tar_alcaran@sh.itjust.works ⁨18⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      I won’t live it, my kids will. Good luck kids!

      One of the many reasons I didn’t have kids.

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    • ximtor@lemmy.zip ⁨17⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      And what makes you think society is suddenly going to change (any moment now?) and your kids would have a better life, would just everyone keep having kids?🤔

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      • gandalf_der_12te@discuss.tchncs.de ⁨5⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        I think the thing you have to ask yourself is “would i want to be born today” that will tell you whether you should have kids.

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  • benni@lemmy.world ⁨11⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

    The design choices of people who make memes out of their political opinions are so random and funny to me sometimes. Like why is one of them a Russian gopnik? Why is the other one a blushing gamer femboy who paints his nails??

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  • ExLisper@lemmy.curiana.net ⁨15⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

    Define ‘decent living standards’.

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    • Taalnazi@lemmy.world ⁨10⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      I think Maslow’s pyramid of needs would be a good starter. But let’s be more concrete.

      • House (60 m2, +20 m2 per extra person in household), with electrification, and which can withstand severe weather events (heatwaves, blizzards, heavy rain and wind, etc.).

      • Clean air and environment without fine dust, microplastics, PFAS, asbestos, etc.

      • Clean, potable and heatable water available anytime

      • Healthy and clean food free from animal suffering made available for all

      • Everyday and affordable clothes available for all

      • Bodily integrity: only the person themselves can decide over their own body, with the exception of vaccination (because everyone ought to be vaccinated!)

      • Labour rights, such as automatic unionisation, workplace democracy and self-governance, no vertical hierarchy (so no CEO, overreaching holdings, trusts, etc). And ideally, a wageless gift economy system based on needs. If not that, then this: any company lacking one of the above/being too big, may never get bailed out.

      • Protection of personal property, with private property becoming communal property instead.

      • Encouragement of meeting people at sport, hobbies, reading (helps finding friendship)

      • Bicycle and public transit infrastructure being widely available.

      • Free and high-quality public education available for all

      • Same with healthcare. No artificial limit mandating that there be max x amount of doctors or teachers.

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    • Banana@sh.itjust.works ⁨11⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      I’m sure they define that in the study if you read it

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      • piranhaconda@mander.xyz ⁨10⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        Well would you look at that, it sure does.

        Recent empirical studies have established the minimum set of specific goods and services that are necessary for people to achieve decent-living standards (DLS), including nutritious food, modern housing, healthcare, education, electricity, clean-cooking stoves, sanitation systems, clothing, washing machines, refrigeration, heating/cooling, computers, mobile phones, internet, transit, etc. This basket of goods and services has been developed through an extensive literature (e.g., Rao and Min, 2017, Rao et al., 2019) and is summarized in Table 1, following Millward-Hopkins (2022).

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  • brianary@lemmy.zip ⁨22⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

    Does this assume instant, frictionless transportation of goods?

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    • Shareni@programming.dev ⁨17⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      Transportation of goods is mostly a capitalist issue. You don’t need to cover a cucumber with plastic and ship it half way across the world, while selling the local ones to richer countries. The same goes for the vast majority of “goods”. Remove all of that greedy, superfluous shit, and you’re left with minimal shipping needs.

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      • Velypso@sh.itjust.works ⁨16⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        It’s wild that many people on Lemmy dont understand that many things, while completely and absolutely unnecessary, also bring a lot of joy to people.

        Cracking a bottle of beaujolais alongside a dish made from Chinese and Korean ingredients while listening to South American vinyl on my Japanese speakers is part of the spice of life.

        I get that I could live like a 12th century peasant, only consume things I grow myself and use clothing I can make by hand, but Jesus christ, that’s fucking insane.

        Living isnt just about living, its about knowing and enjoying other cultures and the world itself. This study sound like they’d have you live in a cave with no ac while only eating flavorless locally sourced paste.

        How boring and repulsive.

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    • REDACTED@infosec.pub ⁨21⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      And bunch of other sacrifices. One of the points was also about everyone living in a city close by. The study is not applicable to real life, it’s utopia scenario. One of the biggest problems isn’t even resources, but co2 production.

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      • Taalnazi@lemmy.world ⁨10⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        I dunno, I think it would be perfectly doable.

        Don’t have many big cities, but have mid-sized cities near-ish, and smaller towns near the mid-sized ones. A sort of ‘web’ of cities, if you will.

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    • BodyBySisyphus@hexbear.net ⁨20⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      Maybe you should read the paper and find out.

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      • brianary@lemmy.zip ⁨20⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        Why?

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  • carl_dungeon@lemmy.world ⁨22⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

    Why can’t we just have fewer people too? Instead of finding ways to support 50 billion people, how about we have good birth control facilities, education, and economies not based on constant never ending growth? The reality is unending growth WILL end whether people like it or not- wouldn’t it be better to do it on our own terms rather than in a global catastrophe?

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    • gandalf_der_12te@discuss.tchncs.de ⁨4⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      Why can’t we just have fewer people too? Instead of finding ways to support 50 billion people

      line must go up

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    • Shareni@programming.dev ⁨16⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      wouldn’t it be better to do it on our own terms rather than in a global catastrophe?

      The catastrophy is inevitable, it’s just a question of whether any humans will survive.

      For example CO2 has a delayed effect of ~40years (if I remember correctly). The yearly output hasn’t at any point dropped to those levels since.

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    • yogurtwrong@lemmy.world ⁨14⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      Why can’t we just have fewer people too?

      Won’t somebody think of the ECONOMY?

      A lot of countries around the world are living a so called “underpopulation crisis” even though the population is still growing frighteningly fast. Population going down is only a problem for capitalism, and it’s going to doom us all

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    • Eq0@literature.cafe ⁨17⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      Most of the world is far from replacement levels of population and the global trend is a decrease in fertility. Overall, we are at 2.4 kids per woman, the replacement level being estimated between 2.1 and 2.3 (depending how likely you think it is to die from wars). This data has been (mostly) decreasing since the 60s.

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  • gandalf_der_12te@discuss.tchncs.de ⁨23⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

    Technically, earth’s land area is big enough to sustain around 24 billion people. Consider this diagram:

    Image

    It shows that we’re using around 50% of all habitable land for agriculture. Most of the land that we aren’t using is either high up in the mountains (where terrain isn’t flat and you can’t use heavy machinery) or in the tropical regions on Earth close to the equator (south america, central africa, indonesia), or in areas where it’s too cold for agriculture (sibiria, canada). so you can’t really use more agricultural land than we’re already using without cutting down the rainforest.

    In the diagram it also says that we’re using only 23% of agricultural land for crops which produce 83% of all calories. If we used close to 100% of agricultural land for crops, it would produce approximately 320% of calories currently being produced, so yes, we could feed 3x the population this way.

    However, it must be noted that there’s significant fluctuation in food production per km², for example due to volcanic eruptions. So it’s better to leave a certain buffer to the maximum amount of people you could feed in one year, because food shortages in another year would otherwise lead to bad famines.

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  • 8000gnat@reddthat.com ⁨7⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

    what tf kind of game controller is that? three vertical buttons??

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  • Zerush@lemmy.ml ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago

    Most of the 8 billon people are living in the third world and which less resources waste, most recources a wasted by less than 10% of the world population.

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  • flamingo_pinyata@sopuli.xyz ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago

    But image if we can provide so much for 8.5 billion, it means we can provid double for 4 billion. There is no reasonable excuse to keep increasing the human population.

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    • rainwall@piefed.social ⁨23⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      Those 8.5 billion are producing all of that 100%. If you had 4 billion, it would be 45%.

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      • Eq0@literature.cafe ⁨17⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        Production is absolutely not the bottleneck, here. We are producing too much, constantly.

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    • gandalf_der_12te@discuss.tchncs.de ⁨23⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      numbers must go up

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  • BodyBySisyphus@hexbear.net ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago

    The bulk of labor under capitalism goes toward maintaining conditions of artificial scarcity, not supporting wellbeing.

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  • TheGuyTM3@lemmy.ml ⁨16⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

    From what i’ve heard, with the aging population in developed countries and the birthrate getting lower due to longer life expectancy, population should soon stabilise itself around 10 billions. Seems viable.

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    • gandalf_der_12te@discuss.tchncs.de ⁨5⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      Yeah population growth really follows a sigmoid curve:

      Image

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    • Valmond@lemmy.world ⁨16⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      Not when a fraction of it “needs” everything. But that’s another problem ofc.

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  • Sidhean@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago

    Oh, I know!

    wE sHoULd KiLl HalF oF ThEm

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    • Thedogdrinkscoffee@lemmy.ca ⁨22⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      I was going to say “No one is saying that”, but there are many going down that road.

      The preferable approach is degrowth. A lower birthrate leading to a smaller population with no deaths and lower consumption until human civilization can not only fit with our planetary boundaries, but restore a lot of wildlife and wildlands.

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      • Eq0@literature.cafe ⁨17⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        This is already happening, but i don’t think it’s fast enough: with the exceeded life expectancy, we are first seeing an increase and aging of population. Only after the wave of now 50-60 year olds will be dead will we see a stable degrowth. Is that soon enough? Sure it’s preferable to extermination?

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      • A_Chilean_Cyborg@feddit.cl ⁨16⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        I’m not keen on a society were seniors are the majority of the population, it would be a disaster.

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  • kibiz0r@midwest.social ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago

    It’s disturbing, how many people eagerly embrace eugenics and anti-natalism as long as they can cite a left-wing cause like ecology as their reason

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    • bennieandthez@lemmygrad.ml ⁨9⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      Where did you get the idea that this was malthusian? Hickel advocates for a more efficient distribution of resources, not to cut thr world population in half so gringos can keep their 4 cars and lawn.

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    • brianary@lemmy.zip ⁨22⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

      Antinatalism is a strawman slur against anyone that questions the viability of infinite growth.

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      • GreyEyedGhost@lemmy.ca ⁨11⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        So what is calling anyone who has a child a breeder?

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      • Thordros@hexbear.net ⁨19⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

        i-love-not-thinking

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  • ThatGuy46475@lemmy.world ⁨6⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

    Is there a workable plan to get to that point or is it a theoretical idea like communism

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  • Auth@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago

    How did they calculate that? I don’t believe it.

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  • webghost0101@sopuli.xyz ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago

    Anyone have a good pdf source on this research?

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  • iAvicenna@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago

    How detailed is this calculation? Does it take into account where these resources are produced and costs of logistics (nvm difficulty of getting every country on board with this, lets assume we did)?

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