Submitted 4 weeks ago by BadmanDan@lemmy.world to [deleted]
https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/70a880a8-175e-4dcc-b799-4afb88a328ef.jpeg
Now that we have final numbers. It appears that Harris had all the white & black support she needed for an EC victory. But Trump outright flipping Latino men and making huge gains with Latino women seems to have made all the difference.
What do you think?
First image is 2024, second is 2020.
Don’t forget all the people who voted for Biden in 2020 and didn’t fucking vote in 2024
15 million of them. That is a staggering number.
15 million of them. That is a staggering number.
It’s also not an accurate number. The official count for Biden in 2020 was about 81.3 million (found many places online, but the official one is a good choice) and the unofficial count for Harris by AP so far is about 74.3 million. That’s about 7 million, which is less than half of what you claimed.
People have got to stop just posting straight up false information. If you don’t know, don’t post.
“Are we out of touch with our core voters?”
“No, it’s the voters who are wrong”.
This will probably be how the Democrats regroup after the loss.
White people are so obsessed with blaming an optgroup like what about all the white guys that voted for him
What about all the white women who voted for Trump? Benefitting from structural racism is a helluva drug
… but he’ll make my racist life better, he told me! /s
Need some titles on those columns. I’m guessing red/blue are the usual party colors, but what is the 3rd?
The biggest factor really is disengagement. There where millions who where involved in 2020 that just skipped out this time.
3rd is the percentage of the vote amongst all demographics.
Why are columns 1 & 2 shifter between the two images? Makes comparison harder.
The 3rd column might be the relative share of registered or eligible voters.
The fact that any group aside from white men voted for trumpism is the issue. The disconnect was the complicit main stream media sane washing the craziness. They put racism/homophobia/fascism on the same level as Harris’ policies.
Idk, white folks voting for Trump is an issue if you ask me, a white guy. Too many white folks sane washing his shit. Morning Joe went from “he’s a fascist” to “let’s put out differences aside”. Other whities need to realize this is a grift that will likely kill your own.
I object!
White men voting for trumpism is also the issue.
For sure, though I get the op point that at least Trump pretends to promise them something unlike every other group
Your narrative is that Latinos “shifted right” but I think this is a false framing- it was the Biden/Harris administration that shifted hard right on its proposed immigration policies and it left many Latino voters feeling politically abandoned.
Look at the Democrats’ 2024 immigration bill- it is deportations, immigration quotas, and building the wall - while including nothing “left of center” such as amnesty. It is literally a Trump 2016 wishlist.
So the solution to not liking the democrat shift right is to join in with the side off the scale right? I’m not following the logic there…
Populist messaging is popular because it acknowledges that people are suffering and offers easy “solutions” to it.
Most folks don’t actually want to hear the details, they’re both busy and don’t fucking understand it without the benefits of a educational system that has been systemically destroyed for decades.
Trump said he’ll fix the economy and blamed Biden, Harris wanted to pretend that the lines went up so things were good because she was effectively burdened as an incumbent candidate.
Harris decentivized her base of support by chasing Lucy’s football of Republicans that aren’t fucking fascists, going after the Cheney votes of all fucking things, Trump siphoned votes from people that don’t quite know how to fix the problem but know there is a problem.
You can point to Harris’s specific policies all you want, the people you need to get to the polls and vote for you don’t know about them because they’re boring.
I’m not proposing a “solution” here, but the logic is obvious: as the Democratic Party moves to the right, their traditional base becomes more alienated and less incentivized to vote.
A lot of Latinos are fairly conservative people, a lot of them are strongly Catholic with all of the baggage that comes with it, etc.
Basically the only major policy reason they ever leaned towards the democrats is immigration, so with the Dems going further right on immigration it makes a lot of sense for some of them to be jumping ship
Why go with republican-light if the real thing exists? Catering to the center and right wing as Democrats is off-putting to basically everyone except libs
wow, you answer one question about abortion by saying immigrants are rapists and suddenly people feel abandoned. tsk tsk.
I think you’re trying to force a narrative on to this that doesn’t exist. You’re assuming that many of these Latino voters are against harder immigration policy. Polls are telling us the opposite. Poles are telling us that a lot of these Latinos that voted for Trump want this. They didn’t think Biden was too strong on immigration they thought he was too weak.
This literally makes no sense. That immigration bill was bipartisan. And if Latinos felt Dems shifted to far right (which is laughable if you actually look at the policies), why would they vote even further right? THAT MAKES NO SENSE!
As a data analyst, the way the two graphs are setup terribly. There’s really not enough information to come up with any conclusions from the charts.
Also, first, there’s not enough information from the graphs to determine the situation since it’s only by percentages and not population. Second, our system is based on the winners of each state and used by the electoral votes. So overall popular vote isn’t going to determine who got elected, even if the chart showed all blue for all demographics.
Please be careful whenever you ask these questions. It’s so easy to blame one single minority group for a widespread failure. Of course analysis of individual voting groups is legitimate, as long as you properly frame what you’re doing.
This is a serious issue both because of the connection with racism (i.e., it’s the Latinos’ fault) and abdication of responsibility (i.e., we bear no responsibility).
White people voting for the right is the problem. Like how can we go on here and blame Latinos for shifting when such a high percentage of white people voted for him? Especially when you factor in the population size and not just % left or right.
I am ashamed of my peers.
Less white people voted for trump in 24 though. The Latino bit is concerning because Democrats believed they had a demographic inevitability, and that appears to not be the case.
It shouldn’t be concerning, it should be enlightening.
But it won’t be. Not for the party leadership.
Over the past 40 years they’ve gone from being the champion of blue collar and union workers nationwide, and being able to take those votes for granted…to having the rust belt become the biggest swing region in the country (which their opponent swept this month). Did they take this as a wake up call and do more for the blue collar voters to win their loyalty back?
Nah, they just blame them and talk down to them, and tell them they’re too stupid to know what’s best for them.
In that same time frame, they were seen as abandoning the blue collar worker to court the minority vote, talking their efforts at helping factory workers and turning them toward helping minorities in race and gender. While they were actually doing this they did indeed appear to gain that loyalty at the ballot box. Of course once they had it, they felt no need to keep up the good work for these people and have slowly become a party who does nothing for anyone, and runs on a platform of essentially admitting they do nothing, but that their inaction is better than the other side, so they should still be owed votes.
Once again, this isn’t working out for them, and once again, rather than take it as a rejection of what they’re doing, no…it’s the voters who are wrong.
I despise the GOP as much as any reasonable person, and I firmly believe that many of their voters won’t like what they voted for once they start to get it…but there’s no denying that the GOP has a message, goals, and demonstrable progress toward them. And to counter that…the Democrats have…“I think things are good and I wouldn’t change anything. You should vote for me because I’m not MAGA aligned, and if you don’t, it’s your fault not mine.”
Arrogance is off-putting, and it appears it’s going to take at least a half century for the Democrats to figure that out.
Yeah, only around 2-3% of the white voters switching Dem would make up for the Latinos voting for Trump. On the other hand, blaming the voter instead of candidate is losing the point.
Whole thread full of people blaming an entire race and sex whether that’s Latinos, Latino men, Whites, or White men. You ask a stupid question and you get stupid answers.
Kamala lost because the Dems didn’t show up. Again. Look at the number of votes for 2020 vs 2024. All those “undecided” and “obstainers” that didn’t just stay home. They didn’t bother doing a mail in.
Second highest voter turnout in the US. A difference of only 2,624,285 as per University of Florida estimates so far (the number is likely to go down).
This excuse is getting old. One, you are assuming people who did not vote would vote dems. Two, you are pushing blame to the voters who did not show up (and based on the lack of choice it is wild so many showed up) Three, by pushing that blame on to voters you are almost asking for this to happen again. (By letting the dems keep being crap, pissing off voters, and getting people angry at their neighbours helps the republicans)
First, an explanation isn’t an excuse. It’s a reason. It doesn’t make it okay, it doesn’t place or shift blame, it just correctly points something out.
In this case, Trump broadly received the same number of votes as he did 4 years ago, while the Democrats got millions fewer.
There’s no assumption there, it’s just an observation.
It’s not pushing or assigning blame. Maybe they didn’t vote because they were lazy. Maybe they didn’t vote because they didn’t like Harris. Maybe they didn’t vote because they didn’t like the process by which she became the nominee. Maybe they didn’t vote because they’ve lost faith in the entire system.
Regardless of reason, and regardless of how any observer decides to interpret it or assign blame, the facts speak for themselves.
Yes, we are comparing the numbers to the highest voter turn out (which was last election). Biden was able to move 6-7 million more people to vote than Kamala, whereas Trump got about the same as he got in 2020.
Voters have to take some responsibility here. Trump’s base are all being con’d because they are ignorant on how most of the world works beyond their own backyard. Its possible that this is partly true for the 6-7 million people who didn’t vote this election cycle.
The issue isn’t so much that they didn’t vote for Kamala, but rather they did not have the ability to recognize Trump as the con that he is. Me being of average intelligence feels like this should have been easy to decipher.
Only 5% of Latino men shifted. That chart says Latino men were 4% of the total vote. Harris needed more than another .02%
I think you’re getting confused by the column placement. This appears to be a 16 point shift with another 3% loss for Harris on top of that.
Yup… You’re right. 19% of 4% is 0.76%.
Much more, but not enough to tip the scales.
Quiet you, it has to be our fault. There’s just no way he got someone with satellite network access to fuck with the numbers while everyone got distracted by an unusually large number of bomb threats specifically in the swing states.
Democrats failed to solve people’s issues. That’s just it.
But Americans are in for a hard awakening if they think that in general Latin American population is progressive or left leaning. And that democrats have their guaranteed vote.
Each person is different, of course. And the average doesn’t change any person individual values.
But on average Latin American countries tend to have overwhelming conservative cultures when compared with USA/Europe.
Many legal immigrants get pissed if you conflate them with illegal immigrants. They try very hard distance themselves from those people. Couple that with pervasive machismo and Catholic ignorance and this is what you get.
Actually beautiful comment. Thank you.
To actually answer the post title you’d have to go state by state in the swing states to see if she could flip enough of them to make a difference. I suspect the bigger problem is still lack of turnout rather than any specific demographic.
I know! Let’s blame EVERYBODY. That way nobody is left out and we can just admit we ALL fucked up so next time we can constructively work together to NOT fuck up instead of slinging mud at each other for the next four years.
not gonna happen. harris supporters still think genociding and massive wealth inequalities are okay. dems have lost my vote nationally until they start supporting labor and stop fucking warmongering.
Congrats on your surplus privilege! But I have some bad news for you…
It’s really unclear, to me, what these tables are even saying. What’s each column?
Collumn 1 is Percentage that voted for the Winner (Republican 2024/Democrat 2020), Column 2 the Loser, Column 3 is the percentage of the people polled.
So row Latino men: 55% voted for Trump, 43% Voted for Harris, and 6% of the exit poll said they were Latino men.
The first two columns is what percentage each party receive for that particular demographic. The third column is the percentage that demographic made up of the total votes.
So the each rows first two columns should add the 100%. The final column should add to 100%.
Decades of under-education could only lead to shit. But even for a cynical asshole.like me, your country electing the best friend of the most notorious pedo, after he tried to overtake the previous election is quite something.
The culture war means more than that.
These are national statistics. They bear no direct relation to the outcome.
They do, because no state exists in a vacuum.
43 states and one district didn’t matter this time.
Only seven states mattered.
I don’t think this is what you intended OP but we should be careful not to blame voters here. Trump and his enablers are to blame for what he does, not voters.
That said, this is interesting. The shift to Trump among most communities was tiny, which could explain why most people were so surprised by this outcome. But why did Latinos shift to the right so much? That’s what I’d like to know.
I’m not blaming anyone, I’m just pointing out the actual data and asking how & why? For example,
White turnout increased this election, but trump lost some white men & women support again like he did in 2020. And it appears Harris did bettter with white women than Obama, Hillary or Biden. The white vote didn’t change that much.
Black turnout was slightly down, and Trump was able to make a small 2% gain from black men, which isn’t much considering they made up 5% of the electorate this election.
As for the “other” demo. It’s every other ethnicity, but none of them are really big enough to have really big impact unless a specific state has a very large percentage of them and they all go overwhelmingly one way.
So I’m just saying, the only big outlier I see is the Latino vote. Which shifted HUGE for trump, and it appears that’s what won him the election. And I’m asking is that true? And if so, why? Compared to other demos.
Kamala Harris lost cause she’s female. And didn’t lie promise (that much) to voters. And had the richest 0.5% of US voters against her. This is cause the oldest wannabe-democracy of the world lost his state long ago.
It is also crazy that I lived long enough to see more Latino men vote Republican than white women 😂
Do some rough math say there are 200,000,000 total eligible voters.
2024 would have 12,000,000 male Latino voters 2020 would have 10,000,000 based on the 3rd column
Even if 100% went left to right at most you have a 12M shift.
That shift though in absolute numbers was far less than that though based on the R/D split, so not a tremendous impact over all.
There was just a lot less people showing up over all for any reason.
Since Trump’s number one message was about immigration, it makes me wonder how Latinos took that message. A bystanding white person might think that Latinos should be appalled at the way Mexican immigrants were painted as criminals. But then again, maybe Mexican immigrants who’ve been in the US a while look down on that recently arriving, or don’t want more of them to compete with. After all if you are a Mexican immigrant, you probably compete with other Mexican immigrants for work on some level. So there again we have the failure of identity politics. It’s about economics, not identity.
Oh no doubt in my mind it’s the same as the stockholm syndrome afflicted gay men who were all over social media supporting Trump. It doesn’t matter what the Republican party does or says, men in the US want to support it and delude themselves that they aren’t it’s targets.
I live in the Rio Grande Valley. The prevailing sentiment I’ve heard from people regarding trump-supporting Latino relatives was that they seem to be of the opinion that trump is only going to go after the undocumented. There’s also a fuckton of anger at the word “Latinx.”
Mind you, this is anecdote based on my personal observations living in the area, and I make no claims beyond that.
Couple this with the Democratic Party moving to the right on immigration. Now the people who once had common cause with Democrats and would begrudgingly vote for them in spite of their misgivings regarding abortion and trans people had no reason to stick with the party and either voted trump or stayed home.
It also doesn’t help that we lost our NPR affiliate a few years back. The valley is really spread out and a lot of people get their news from terrestrial radio on their work commute. Now the only non-music programming is trumpist grievance screaming.
As a Latin American, the Latinx word just invokes unyielding rage into us, and marks everyone who uses it as a forever enemy
A functional, coherent working class policy would’ve ticked some of those numbers in the campaign’s favor across the board without even having to divide by race or gender.
I don’t think anyone shifted right. They just didn’t want whatever it was that Harris was selling.
Someone pointed out that a lot of Latinos are effectively white, like Cruz and Rubio.
If that lasr column is population, latino men are 1/7 compared to white men. So the larger difference is much smaller than it appears. And how did there get to be so many more latino women than men.
Kamela lost because the policies of the Democrats suck for working class people. And the Democrats are in general corrupt as fuck. It’s as simple as that. Just as in Russia, if the system is super corrupt, better make it explicit by making corruption THE system. USA has been an oligarchy for quite some time. Trump 2.0 just made it explicit.
Ever cosider that there’s a reason why the latinos moved to the right?
deegeese@sopuli.xyz 4 weeks ago
I think white men and white women bear more of the blame here purely by population size.
hendrik@palaver.p3x.de 4 weeks ago
Agreed. Despite all the nuances, which are important, too. Judging by this table, the biggest blame it on white men, followed by latino men and white women.
WoahWoah@lemmy.world 4 weeks ago
Latines make up 20% of the population. They are the largest “minority” population. They make up closer to 30% of under 18 demographics. If population trends continue, they will be the largest ethnic group in the country in about 25 years. That’s three eight-year presidential terms.
They’re a minority ethnicity, but the largest one and the second-fastest growing one behind Asians, who, despite one of the lowest birth rates, have proportionally the highest rate of immigration. Trump also gained 12% in the Asian electorate as well. I would say these voting trends, if they continue, look extremely promising for Republicans in the future.
All that said, Black, Asian, and Latine men and women voters combined comprise roughly 29% of the voting public in presidential elections. White women alone comprise 38%. Latino men are 5% for comparison. White women are the largest voting demographic by far.
In 2016, 39% of white women voted for Trump. In 2020, 44% of white women voted for Trump. In 2024, 53% of white women voted for Trump.
I’m all for blaming minorities for the democrats sagging support (I’m not), but if we’re looking for someone at which to point our fingers, if white women had voted like they did in 2016 when Trump was elected the first time, every single Latino man (I realize that’s redundant) could have voted for Trump, and Harris would have still received more total votes.
pennomi@lemmy.world 4 weeks ago
With how thin our election margins are, I wonder if literally just misogynists can swing the election. Would 1 in 100 Americans refuse to vote for a woman for president? I think maybe yes.
FourPacketsOfPeanuts@lemmy.world 4 weeks ago
It’s hard to separate out the factors. Would a man have also struggled with a campaign starting so late (and doing so poorly in a previous primary). Would a white women? How can we separate out the influence of race, sex and the less than ideal running circumstances.
Given who she is, and running when she had to, she actually did pretty damn well.
Tbh looking for blame beyond biden seems pointless to me. She has every sign of having been able to win over more people had she been prepped as the nominee fun the start…
2nd_Fermenter@lemmy.world 4 weeks ago
As another White Dude for Harris, I concur entirely. It’s definitely an issue with white dudes.
nonailsleft@lemm.ee 4 weeks ago
Who’s talking blame?