if the bird flu started spreading between humans, how long would you need to stay quarantined before it was safe to come out??

Submitted ⁨⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago⁩ by ⁨FarFarAway@startrek.website⁩ to ⁨[deleted]⁩

Im talking worst case scenario, something like Station 11 or the movie Contagion

If the bird flu started spreading rapidly from human to human, and it devastated our population as it can in birds or marine life, how long would one have to hole up in seclusion before the virus burned through the population and it would probably be safe to come out.

Obviously, this is not the current situation, and this scenario is a long way from becoming any type of reality. This is just a hypothetical. If turds hit the fan, I dont want to waste time trying to figure this out in the moment while everyone’s ill, and can’t answer.

Move over B’s, I want first dibs on the tp!

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Godort@lemm.ee ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
I mean, it wasn’t that long ago that we had an epidemic and a huge amount of people just straight up refused to believe it was real.

People wouldn’t quarantine and it would never actually go away.

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- WeeSheep@lemmy.world ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  It’s totally unfair to judge humanity on just one pandemic when people refuse to wear masks and quarantine. We should also look at the 1918 pandemic.
  
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  - actionjbone@sh.itjust.works ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
    True, that’s two pandemics when people refused to wear masks and quarantine. Makes for much better data to include that. Thanks!
    
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- FarFarAway@startrek.website ⁨6⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  No, definitely people wouldnt quarantine like that. But, H5N1 has a really high mortality rate. From what I can tell, a near 100%.
  
  Not to be macabre, but I don’t mean how long would people have to quarantine to beat back the virus. Im asking how long would an individual have to hide from everyone else, before everyone else, who refused to believe it was real, and whatnot, caught the virus and just…died.
  
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Modern_medicine_isnt@lemmy.world ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
Well, you can’t know until it happens. And even then it will mutate like covid did, so it could keep changing. And what it does in other animals doesn’t map to what it will do in humans most likely. Worst case scenario would be a long incubation time, followed by a long symptom free contagious period, followed by a very short sick time before death. But death isn’t all that advantageous for the virus.

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BallsandBayonets@lemmy.world ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
If the government provides living expenses, as long as it takes. If it provides less than one month’s living expenses over an 18 month period, you don’t need to quarantine at all, dying will be cheaper.

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Etterra@lemmy.world ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
What do you mean “come out?” I became a germophobic shut-in in 2020 and little’s changed since then.

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Mouselemming@sh.itjust.works ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
We killed off one strain of flu by our less-than-perfect quarantining for COVID. If we mask up for Texas Moo Flu, we’d stop spreading COVID around so much and might slow down its mutation too. At least with flu we know how it’s transmitted, and have related vaccines to tweak. Maybe we’ll be able to call off the Return To Workplace bullshit, too.

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- 0x4E4F@sh.itjust.works ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  Some people do actually need to physically be at work… in fact, it’s how most work is done. Just because some are devs/IT workers and see no need to actually show up to work, that doesn’t mean the rest of the world keeps on turning without maintenance.
  
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  - themusicman@lemmy.world ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
    You’re ranting for no reason. “Return to workplace” obviously doesn’t refer to workers who had to be on site the whole time
    
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  - Lmaydev@programming.dev ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
    It’s not just Devs. It’s essentially any office job.
    
    Accountants or lawyers don’t need to be in the same building anymore than Devs do.
    
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- Tywele@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  
  We killed off one strain of flu by our less-than-perfect quarantining for COVID.
  
  We did? Do you have more information on that?
  
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  - ammonium@lemmy.world ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
    www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9524051/
    
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- FarFarAway@startrek.website ⁨6⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  That’s pretty cool! I knew we didn’t really have a flu season, but I didn’t realize we actually killed off a while strain. Not for nothing, I guess.
  
  You do have a point though, we have an existing vaccine and we are more knowledgeable about the flu in general. Maybe there would be more surviviors than one would anticipate. As long as the scientists didn’t dont get infected and die before they could get the vaccine out.
  
  When birds catch the bird flu, there can be up to 100% mortality rate. So, I suppose I’m more refering to a catastrophic, civilization altering illness. More akin the what a zombie virus would do, without the added potential of reanimation.
  
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- GBU_28@lemm.ee ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  I prefer Houstonian butt COVID
  
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Schlemmy@lemmy.ml ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
If everyone goes in lockdown a few weeks should suffice but that’s the ideal scenario. Containment and immobility are the best ways to smother an outbreak.

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- Wiz@kbin.social ⁨6⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  It would be much longer, based on 2020. There's always idiots breaking quarantine.
  
  COVID could have been eliminated if people stayed home for a couple of weeks in March/April 2020. Now COVID is permanent.
  
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  - Schlemmy@lemmy.ml ⁨6⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
    Exact. Quarantine only works when we all participate.
    
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NeoNachtwaechter@lemmy.world ⁨6⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

If the bird flu started spreading rapidly from human to human,

It does, sometimes. Doctors know. Laymen don’t care.

and it devastated our population as it can in birds or marine life

It is less deadly for humans than for birds.

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Mr_Dr_Oink@lemmy.world ⁨6⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
Are you asking for a friend?

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- FarFarAway@startrek.website ⁨6⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  Not this time.
  
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untorquer@lemmy.world ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
Safe is relative. Do you go out right now? Do you trust your (assumed) covid vaccination to protect you?

Ask yourself what level of risk you’re willing to accept. “I need a vaccine to be widely adopted” or “i need to be more likely to die/have complications from X other thing”. Better yet, “If i get infected i’m this likely to spread the disease further”. Your risk tolerance is never zero and neither is your risk to others.

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TheRealKuni@lemmy.world ⁨6⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
Please correct me if I’m wrong, but aren’t a decent number of strains of influenza originally from avian or porcine sources? I know we occasionally make big deals about bird flu or swine flu, but I was under the impression that lots of flu strains either originated with or pass cleanly between animal sources.

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rimu@piefed.social ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
Vaccine development would probably be quicker than the ones made for Covid as we already have vaccines for other strains of flu. Maybe up to a year?

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jordanlund@lemmy.world ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
I guess it would depend on how deadly it was. Corona killed a million Americans and bodies were stacked outside hospitals like cordwood.

If it ended up being MORE dangerous than Corona, I’d guess most of the population would have thinned out in 8 to 10 months.

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- venoft@lemmy.world ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  The fatality rate of is about 55%, so a bit more deadly than corona (about 3%).
  
  Source
  
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stinerman@midwest.social ⁨7⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
As long as the public health officials in your area tell you to.

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- FarFarAway@startrek.website ⁨6⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  But in the situation in imagining, they would all be dead. I’d be stuck there indefinitely!
  
  But you do have a point. Im sure the public health officials in my area would tell everyone that there’s nothing to worry about and to go get infected for fun. :/ guess I’d be the only one left, granted I stay inside long enough to outlive all the infected.
  
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