I would say 100%. Thanks for playing the probability of past events game.
The Odds Are Good When The Goods Are Odd
Submitted 1 day ago by UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world to [deleted]
https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/c7874501-6bba-433e-9d2d-9a657293ef18.jpeg
Comments
TipRing@lemmy.world 10 hours ago
bilb@lemmy.ml 7 hours ago
Ummm, excuse me, the Gulf of WHAT?
meme_historian@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 day ago
Just remember when reading this image: “shift to democrat” doesn’t mean that county was won by democrats. It could also be a shift from 19% democratic in 2024 to 22% in 2026
DontRedditMyLemmy@lemmy.world 22 hours ago
Most importantly, Democrats didn’t “win”! Trump just sabotaged the GOP. What are the chances EVERY Democrat ran a flawless campaign and pulled this off in unison.
I pray next that Democrats seize this once in a lifetime opportunity. Americans cried out “make the last 2 years impossible again!” That is the mandate, not business as usual.
UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 20 hours ago
Democrats didn’t “win”! Trump just sabotaged the GOP.
Democrats have been building momentum in the state since the disaster of 2014. Dem turnout has climbed from the 1.4M low water mark that year. An enormous part of that was driven by the Beto engagement strategies and permanent campaign apparatus begun in 2018.
By comparison, NY Dems turnout out 3.4M voters in '26. California turned out 5.1M. Texas Dems turned out 5.4M.
Compare Texas to Florida, Virginia, Ohio… Nobody came close. This was as dramatic a swing as the elections in Hungary and Serbia. And all credit goes to Texas locals, who organized cadres fully independent of the national party.
laranis@lemmy.zip 18 hours ago
^This. This. And this. I wish the blue tsunami was an awakening of the American people who have learned their lesson from their brush with fascism. They realize human rights apply to all humans, that the rule of law is fundamental to a functioning society, that capitalism needs guardrails.
They didn’t. They voted to oust the party who impacted them personally. And if gas prices and interest rates go down a bit, they’ll be right back to their usual identity politics.
I was wrong about the midterm. I didn’t think the Dems had a hope in hell of winning both houses of Congress. I hope I am wrong about this and Dems get off their asses, work to restore rule of law and immediately shift to real governmental reform to prevent this kind of slide to fascism and corruption much harder. We have done it before, so that gives me hope.
decolo@piefed.social 1 day ago
uriel238@lemmy.blahaj.zone 3 hours ago
less of a Fwooosh! and more of a…
CHAK-THOOM!!
moakley@lemmy.world 8 hours ago
Looks like Cookie Monster.
sangeteria@lemmy.ml 16 hours ago
Awful map design oh my god
arrow74@lemmy.zip 21 hours ago
Anyone have a memed version of this
0ops@piefed.zip 18 hours ago
zeejoo@thelemmy.club 1 day ago
This dumb bitch. Republicans control Texas & the federal government until January. Did they steal the election from themselves?
wezzzy@lemmy.blahaj.zone 1 day ago
No need to call her a bitch ^^
zeejoo@thelemmy.club 1 day ago
Nah, she’s a bitch. You’re free not to use that word, I’m free to use it, c’est la vie. Unless you’d have preferred I call her a cunt, because I’d be happy to oblige.
UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 20 hours ago
Eh. Loomer has been advocating for mass deportation of Muslims for her entire career.
The shoe fits.
aesthelete@lemmy.world 12 hours ago
High because it’s difficult to get more people into the cult when there are already so many of them.
GalacticGrapefruit@lemmy.world 11 hours ago
Actually, his cult has shrunk. By a lot. It’s been some popcorn-munching fun as a cult survivor.
… well, in a disaster-movie way, and I hate living in the disaster movie. But nodding and going, “Yep. Yep, you found out your life is a lie. Aaaand there’re the tears, the mental breakdown. Just let it all out, honey.”
dismay3915@lemmy.world 14 hours ago
My friend said this pattern has happened to every single US president ever except J bush (they lost the midterm elections to the opposing party on their second term). Is there data and facts on it?
Lyrl@lemmy.dbzer0.com 10 hours ago
Presidents not labeled here, but you can look those up separately to figure out what you want: history.house.gov/…/Majority-Changes/
dismay3915@lemmy.world 2 hours ago
Thank you
UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 13 hours ago
Clinton did fine in 98. Reagan did fine in 86
Hikermick@lemmy.world 7 hours ago
? Republicans held both houses after 92 and held them after 98. Not really fine for Clinton
dismay3915@lemmy.world 13 hours ago
I’m more looking for actual stats
JustPlainDave@lemmy.zip 1 day ago
Even though Oklahoma stayed red, every county shifted Democrat.
gh0stcassette@lemmy.blahaj.zone 16 hours ago
Cope, seethe, mald, etc. you transphobic waste of oxygen.
WanderWisley@lemmy.world 16 hours ago
Eat shit bitch!
IpsumLauren@lemmy.world 1 day ago
And the Gulf of Mexico is back again!
imadethis@fedinsfw.app 1 day ago
If we considered ’24 as a single point, then regression to the mean (thinking, as is pretty accurate across most states, that the split between d/r is often a few points off of 50/50) would suggest a large swing back towards ’neutral’ from a +14 point advantage.
So, even discounting the idiocy that is the current american administration and its effects on voters, yes, I would expect most places to vote more democrat.
Burn_The_Right@lemmy.today 1 day ago
Let them cry foul! Agree emphatically when they say it was rigged! Encourage them to take up arms. We need an excuse to finish Sherman’s work. Showing them mercy was a deadly mistake.
As long as conservatives continue to live, they will continue to oppress everyone around them. If we allow them to continue to exist, they will bring us back into fascism. We need to finish them or next time will be MUCH worse for us.
bigfish@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 day ago
Is there a country-wide version of this to browse?
TheTetrapod@lemmy.world 1 day ago
It’s on the New York Times website, desktop mode or app only.
UntimedDiffusion@piefed.zip 1 day ago
I know NYTimes has a graph like this. Unsure if anyone else does
thisfro@discuss.tchncs.de 1 day ago
cnn does too
resipsaloquitur@lemmy.cafe 1 day ago
Indeed.
uriel238@lemmy.blahaj.zone 3 hours ago
Libs of TikTok is the username of various American anti-LGBTQ and far-right social-media accounts operated by Chaya Raichik – Wikipedia
Just a PSA that it’s a creepy source, so don’t trust it much.
skisnow@lemmy.ca 3 hours ago
It does explain the weird way that the question answers itself at the end without its author seemingly realising it. There aren’t the numbers to make it mathematically plausible to shift further right if you’re already at that extreme.