So this doesn’t entirely answer your question, but it’s worth watching this reallifelore video on Why Iran Is Dying, as it’s good context for that background of what is going on and gives a frame for what’s next. www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8kSGH4I8Ps
🇮🇷 Iran – TL;DR (Markdown)
🔥 Immediate Flash-Points
- Security nosedive: Hezbollah, Hamas, Assad proxies left in tatters; Israeli/US jets roam Iranian skies at will.
- New NATO wedge: US-brokered Armenia–Azerbaijan deal may choke Iran off from Russia via the Caucasus.
- Eastern squeeze: Taliban dams on the Helmand & Hari Rivers cut Iranian water to a trickle → border skirmishes.
- Mass deportation: 1.1 million Afghans expelled in one month in a doomed attempt to force more water downstream.
💧 Depleting, Salting, Sinking
| Metric | Recent Status | Pre-Crisis Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Tehran rainfall | 2025 projection = 100 mm | Historic norm = 260 mm |
| Tehran reservoirs | 258 Mm³ left | Long-term average 618 Mm³ |
| National groundwater | 200 Bm³ gone, most rest is salty | Original 500 Bm³ |
| Land subsidence | 10–31 cm / yr | Critical global = 4 mm / yr |
- Lake Urmia – Former largest lake in ME is 90 % gone; dust-storms surging.
- Isfahan – 23 Bm³ air-void under city after centuries of aquifer tap.
🏗️ How We Got Here
-
1949–1979 – Shah‐Era
- Hoover-Dam envy → launch of mega-dam program. Displaced ancient qanat system.
- Industrialization forced onto the water-scarce central plateau.
-
1979+ – Post-Revolution Float-or-Die Policy
- Iraq war + US embargo → “Food-export-import is treason”.
- IRGC-crony “Water Mafia” bloats projects: 80k wells → 800 k wells, 316 dams (2012) → 647 dams (2018).
-
Climate & Corruption
- Fuel subsidies fund inefficient irrigation; 90 % of drinkable water now feeds ag that earns <12 % GDP.
- 90 % pipeline leakage vs <10 % in advanced countries.
🗺️ Ethnic Break-points
| Region | Issue |
|---|---|
| Sistan-Baluchestan | Helmand dam chokes wetlands → fuels Baloch separatism. |
| Khuzestan | Highly salted Karun River attacks Arab minority irrigation. |
| Azerbaijan & Kurdistan | Vanished Lake Urmia sparks Kurdish–Azeri clashes. |
🔮 Forecast
- Even with optimal policy, models: +2.6 °C, –35 % rain in coming decades.
- Iran already spends more water/year than Turkey (similar pop). Beyond end-game for aquifers.
✋ What Would Fix It (but won’t happen soon)
- Immediate well capping & metering.
- Kill water-intensive farm subsidies.
- Redivert IRGC-controlled cash from nukes & foreign proxies to desalination & pipeline repair.
- Accept food import dependence as necessity.
TL;DR in one bold phrase:
Iran is simultaneous geopolitical whiplash + ecological free-fall..
robomuffin79@lemmy.world 1 day ago
There will be chaos. Imagine Libya but ten times worse. Israel will bomb regularly to maintain instability and the Americans will be pitting groups against each other, with the Saudis and UAE backing ISIL and other extremist groups. If the Shah’s son does get into power, he will need to rule with an iron fist, with the backing of the US, as people still remember the tyranny of his father’s regime. Expect him to bring back the dreaded secret police his father used to have, with arrests, torture and disappearances. Meanwhile, the diaspora in the West, who are chanting for regime change won’t actually go back to live there again
bufalo1973@piefed.social 1 day ago
So the same but without the sharia, right?
ICastFist@programming.dev 15 hours ago
For the Iranians, yeah, different asshole, same shit