auraithx
@auraithx@lemmy.dbzer0.com
- Comment on NOOOOOOO 1 week ago:
20 seconds is the full duration. 1-2s to start.
- Comment on NOOOOOOO 1 week ago:
On average, it takes most mammals, including humans, about 12 seconds to have a bowel movement.
Why tf are you having to pass time?
- Comment on NOOOOOOO 1 week ago:
We know we need fibre now. If it’s taking you more than 20 seconds to shit you’re gonna die early.
- Comment on What did Musk and Trump fall out over? 1 week ago:
Different kind of smart. I dont underestimate them I just see right through them.
They have people who are Ben Carson smart. Domain-specific. Not in general reasoning, critical thinking, or capable of maintaining such a façade. Anyone smart would’ve distanced themselves along time ago unless they are grifting them. And generally those types of smarts don’t end in MAGA to start with. Just like how MAGAts don’t end up as artists. (Name one conservative artist who isn’t shit)
And Trump cannot lie. Yes, all he does it lie. But he also cannot lie. If you ask him if he commited a crime he’ll straight up admit to it. Everytime. He rejects the premise of guilt. The lies he does tell are done out of a mix of unconscious strategic self-presentation and the fact he is just thick as shit and believes whatever he sees on the TV.
- Comment on What did Musk and Trump fall out over? 1 week ago:
Less than 1%.
People vastly overestimate these bozos.
They aren’t lying. They actually believe this shite. They aren’t playing genius 5d chess they are just reactive morons. Look at the leaked Signal group chats.
No doubt Vance is a bit smarter and is acting a bit, given all the ‘Trump is americas Hitler’ stuff. But this is unspoken between them.
- Comment on What did Musk and Trump fall out over? 1 week ago:
Musk was taking all the attention and jumping about like a dick.
First rift was musk was going to get classified briefings on China and Trump put a stop to it.
Also Musk had a fall out with Bessent and Trump sided with Besset.
Also rumoured he fucked Steven Millers wife (who is a left and would blacken a right eye with a hook).
Nothing to do with the bill at all IMO. He does not give a single fuck about that. Just a pain point he knows he can drive a wedge through a big part of Trumps base.
- Comment on 🎄🌲🎄 2 weeks ago:
Elon says Trump is in the Epstein files and has called for him to be impeached.
Trump says he’s considering revoking all Elon’s govt subsidies and Bannon is saying he should deport Elon and confiscate SpaceX
- Submitted 2 weeks ago to [deleted] | 14 comments
- Comment on Steps To Navigate Discord 2 weeks ago:
Fuck up halfwit
- Comment on [deleted] 2 weeks ago:
Man I wish someone would try and create an unhealthy dynamic with me.
- Comment on Is it possible to basically not snore at all? 2 weeks ago:
Rich coming from someone who reads ‘most’ as ‘all’
- Comment on Is it possible to basically not snore at all? 2 weeks ago:
Most people don’t have sleep apnea.
Most people are overweight.
Hence, most people don’t snore unless they’re overweight. Medical conditions are the exceptions to the rule, I didn’t say ‘People can’t snore unless they’re overweight’, which is what you seem to be assuming oddly.
- Comment on Is it possible to basically not snore at all? 2 weeks ago:
Overweight people are more likely to snore because excess fat around the neck and throat can narrow the airway, increasing resistance to airflow and causing vibration during sleep.
So how exactly is that ‘absurd’ lmao?
- Comment on Is it possible to basically not snore at all? 2 weeks ago:
Most people don’t snore unless they’re overweight
- Comment on A Black Eye at the White House: Did Somebody Punch Elon? The list of possible suspects seemed long. 2 weeks ago:
That wee guy is a psychopath, bet our kids end up having to deal with his reign.
- Comment on A Black Eye at the White House: Did Somebody Punch Elon? The list of possible suspects seemed long. 2 weeks ago:
Yeah I was punched in the face frequently in my 20s and it’s surprisingly hard to give someone a black eye. Looks like he’s been legless and cunted it into a coffee table
- Comment on [deleted] 3 weeks ago:
The only place that would force that is the eu so I guess I depends on whether that survives the storm.
- Comment on Thousands to get payouts over forced prepayment meter fitting 3 weeks ago:
Should be getting 10x this at a minimum.
- Comment on [deleted] 3 weeks ago:
I mean to be fair, don’t Universities usually prioritise foreign students because they pay through the nose?
- Comment on how did you and your partner change after having a baby? 3 weeks ago:
Is she a gerbil?
- Comment on Is this a tumbleweed? 3 weeks ago:
It’s Katy Perry
- Comment on Every toddler becomes a hackerman when they find a tablet 4 weeks ago:
Well yes that is what I was referencing. That is how many people use them; out at restaurants, public places, at friends, etc. Often they are watching TV on them anyway.
But outwith that they have a whole host of problems even when used correctly and little upside. Autoplay, bright colors, fast-paced and visually rich interfaces. Locked in 20cm from the screen. Instead of learning to entertain yourself quietly.
Exception is well developed education apps for cognitive impairments, developmental delays, etc where the crazy engagement the design envokes can be useful.
- Comment on Every toddler becomes a hackerman when they find a tablet 4 weeks ago:
More worryingly, shoving them in front of a tablet every time they’re being difficult means they don’t learn how to regulate their emotions.
Difference between my daughter and her cousins is night and day. Few studies confirming this now.
Tried giving it her on a plane once and she had no idea what to do with it and sat and played with her toys instead, so not that intuitive. She has a mechanical keyboard hooked up to a Pi instead.
- Comment on Is it normal for people to ask where you are from online? 5 weeks ago:
Guy from HK in my DMs trying to get me to video call him.
There are plenty of scammers out there too, but some people are just lonely or curious. They might’ve just recently got internet and the only interaction they’ve had previously is from within their slum.
- Comment on people trashing the self-service section of the post office 5 weeks ago:
So what, they’re just lying there and anyone can take them?
Here you either go to the till and they give you the parcel and you leave. Or there’s a lockbox which you can retrieve it and leave.
- Comment on people trashing the self-service section of the post office 5 weeks ago:
Why even have a self service station?
- Comment on What would it mean for the world if America was confident they developed a technology that would act as a fool prove deterrent from nuclear attacks what would that mean for the rest of the world? 5 weeks ago:
We’re cooked.
- Comment on Comment your strangest/dumbest cursed images that you find funny for no reason 5 weeks ago:
- Comment on Selling BTC or not..? 5 weeks ago:
It’s just my own analysis all things considered in alignment with Strauss-Howe generational theory which predicts a mass realignment within the next ten years.
Unfortunately hellish dystopia realignment is the most probable currently. But the fascists have co-opted Bitcoin so probably pump anyway.
- Comment on Selling BTC or not..? 5 weeks ago:
Below is a probability‑weighted baseline for Bitcoin’s average spot price (USD) in each calendar year through 2035, with an 80 % confidence band that reflects:
- Crypto‑native factors – post‑halving supply shocks in 2024 and 2028, ETF demand, miner economics.
- Macro & policy vectors – the stagflation/authoritarian scenarios you asked about, plus rates, dollar strength, CBDCs and potential crack‑downs.
- Adoption growth – institutional weight (e.g., spot‑ETF inflows) and retail penetration in the US/UK.
Year Expected Avg. Price 80 % Band Primary Drivers & Assumptions 2025 $130 k $ 90 k – $ 160 k Post‑2024 halving tailwind, spot‑ETF inflows ($4 bn in three weeks), Standard Chartered’s Q2 guide of $120 k seen as floor. 2026 $170 k $ 110 k – $ 220 k Typical cycle peak 12‑18 mo after halving; ETF share could top 6 % of float; mild US recession & regulatory chill cap euphoria. 2027 $125 k $ 80 k – $ 180 k Post‑peak draw‑down phase; tighter US/UK KYC plus macro softness; safe‑haven bids offset some selling. 2028‡ $140 k $ 90 k – $ 250 k ‡Next halving (≈ Apr 2028) halves issuance; authoritarian capital‑flight tail‑risk vs. harsher AML/CBDC clamp‑downs. 2029 $350 k $ 200 k – $ 500 k Historical bull‑run year after halving; dollar‑confidence slide in debt‑crisis scenario; first major corporate‑treasury allocations in UK. 2030 $500 k $ 300 k – $ 900 k Ark Invest base‑case $710 k anchors upside; widespread Lightning/merchant use, but possible US transaction‑monitoring tax. 2031 $600 k $ 400 k – $ 1 m Network‑effect compounding; mining margin squeeze pushes hash abroad; some states treat BTC as strategic reserve. 2032 $700 k $ 500 k – $ 1.2 m Pre‑halving anticipation; institutional allocators raise target weights to 5 % portfolio average. 2033 $850 k $ 600 k – $ 1.5 m Post‑halving rally phase; digital‑dollar + UK‑Gov CBDC coexist, but capital‑controls risk tempers upside. 2034 $1.0 m $ 700 k – $ 1.8 m If Ark bull‑case ($1.5 m–$2.4 m) starts to realise, corporate pension funds and sovereign wealth pile in; crackdown probability still ~25 %. 2035 $1.2 m $ 800 k – $ 2.1 m Mature asset narrative, but split world: high‑surveillance blocs cap convertibility while liberal blocs treat BTC as “digital gold.” How the bands were built
- Cycle template – every prior halving produced a peak ~500‑600 days later; we applied a ±35 % volatility buffer around those glide‑paths.
- Macro stress scenarios – the stagflation/authoritarian track adds 0–30 % premium (capital flight) or subtracts up to 25 % (criminalisation/transaction bans), weighted by our timeline probabilities.
- Adoption curve – ETF ownership share, corporate‑treasury penetration, and UK/US retail ownership each follow S‑curves calibrated to 2010‑2024 data.
- Regulatory shock factor – discrete risk of US/UK banning self‑custody (~10 % by 2030) or imposing punitive taxes (~25 %), trimmed from the top end of each confidence band.
Key caveats
- Black‑swans – protocol failures, quantum‑attack breakthroughs, or global wartime asset freezes could break the model.
- Confidence bands widen after 2030 because crypto’s long‑run variance remains ~70 % annualised.
- Not investment advice – projections are directional estimates, not guarantees.
These price lanes integrate the authoritarian‑risk timeline you requested; should political repression stifle fiat on‑/off‑ramps faster than expected, the lower bounds would dominate. Conversely, if capital controls bite while self‑custody remains legal, the upper bounds could look conservative.
