auraithx
@auraithx@lemmy.dbzer0.com
- Comment on Which is more likely in the future: Smartphones eventually becoming more "open" OR Computers eventually becoming more "locked-down"? 19 hours ago:
The only place that would force that is the eu so I guess I depends on whether that survives the storm.
- Comment on Thousands to get payouts over forced prepayment meter fitting 2 days ago:
Should be getting 10x this at a minimum.
- Comment on [deleted] 6 days ago:
I mean to be fair, don’t Universities usually prioritise foreign students because they pay through the nose?
- Comment on how did you and your partner change after having a baby? 1 week ago:
Is she a gerbil?
- Comment on Is this a tumbleweed? 1 week ago:
It’s Katy Perry
- Comment on Every toddler becomes a hackerman when they find a tablet 1 week ago:
Well yes that is what I was referencing. That is how many people use them; out at restaurants, public places, at friends, etc. Often they are watching TV on them anyway.
But outwith that they have a whole host of problems even when used correctly and little upside. Autoplay, bright colors, fast-paced and visually rich interfaces. Locked in 20cm from the screen. Instead of learning to entertain yourself quietly.
Exception is well developed education apps for cognitive impairments, developmental delays, etc where the crazy engagement the design envokes can be useful.
- Comment on Every toddler becomes a hackerman when they find a tablet 1 week ago:
More worryingly, shoving them in front of a tablet every time they’re being difficult means they don’t learn how to regulate their emotions.
Difference between my daughter and her cousins is night and day. Few studies confirming this now.
Tried giving it her on a plane once and she had no idea what to do with it and sat and played with her toys instead, so not that intuitive. She has a mechanical keyboard hooked up to a Pi instead.
- Comment on Is it normal for people to ask where you are from online? 2 weeks ago:
Guy from HK in my DMs trying to get me to video call him.
There are plenty of scammers out there too, but some people are just lonely or curious. They might’ve just recently got internet and the only interaction they’ve had previously is from within their slum.
- Comment on people trashing the self-service section of the post office 2 weeks ago:
So what, they’re just lying there and anyone can take them?
Here you either go to the till and they give you the parcel and you leave. Or there’s a lockbox which you can retrieve it and leave.
- Comment on people trashing the self-service section of the post office 2 weeks ago:
Why even have a self service station?
- Comment on What would it mean for the world if America was confident they developed a technology that would act as a fool prove deterrent from nuclear attacks what would that mean for the rest of the world? 2 weeks ago:
We’re cooked.
- Comment on Comment your strangest/dumbest cursed images that you find funny for no reason 2 weeks ago:
- Comment on Selling BTC or not..? 2 weeks ago:
It’s just my own analysis all things considered in alignment with Strauss-Howe generational theory which predicts a mass realignment within the next ten years.
Unfortunately hellish dystopia realignment is the most probable currently. But the fascists have co-opted Bitcoin so probably pump anyway.
- Comment on Selling BTC or not..? 2 weeks ago:
Below is a probability‑weighted baseline for Bitcoin’s average spot price (USD) in each calendar year through 2035, with an 80 % confidence band that reflects:
- Crypto‑native factors – post‑halving supply shocks in 2024 and 2028, ETF demand, miner economics.
- Macro & policy vectors – the stagflation/authoritarian scenarios you asked about, plus rates, dollar strength, CBDCs and potential crack‑downs.
- Adoption growth – institutional weight (e.g., spot‑ETF inflows) and retail penetration in the US/UK.
Year Expected Avg. Price 80 % Band Primary Drivers & Assumptions 2025 $130 k $ 90 k – $ 160 k Post‑2024 halving tailwind, spot‑ETF inflows ($4 bn in three weeks), Standard Chartered’s Q2 guide of $120 k seen as floor. 2026 $170 k $ 110 k – $ 220 k Typical cycle peak 12‑18 mo after halving; ETF share could top 6 % of float; mild US recession & regulatory chill cap euphoria. 2027 $125 k $ 80 k – $ 180 k Post‑peak draw‑down phase; tighter US/UK KYC plus macro softness; safe‑haven bids offset some selling. 2028‡ $140 k $ 90 k – $ 250 k ‡Next halving (≈ Apr 2028) halves issuance; authoritarian capital‑flight tail‑risk vs. harsher AML/CBDC clamp‑downs. 2029 $350 k $ 200 k – $ 500 k Historical bull‑run year after halving; dollar‑confidence slide in debt‑crisis scenario; first major corporate‑treasury allocations in UK. 2030 $500 k $ 300 k – $ 900 k Ark Invest base‑case $710 k anchors upside; widespread Lightning/merchant use, but possible US transaction‑monitoring tax. 2031 $600 k $ 400 k – $ 1 m Network‑effect compounding; mining margin squeeze pushes hash abroad; some states treat BTC as strategic reserve. 2032 $700 k $ 500 k – $ 1.2 m Pre‑halving anticipation; institutional allocators raise target weights to 5 % portfolio average. 2033 $850 k $ 600 k – $ 1.5 m Post‑halving rally phase; digital‑dollar + UK‑Gov CBDC coexist, but capital‑controls risk tempers upside. 2034 $1.0 m $ 700 k – $ 1.8 m If Ark bull‑case ($1.5 m–$2.4 m) starts to realise, corporate pension funds and sovereign wealth pile in; crackdown probability still ~25 %. 2035 $1.2 m $ 800 k – $ 2.1 m Mature asset narrative, but split world: high‑surveillance blocs cap convertibility while liberal blocs treat BTC as “digital gold.” How the bands were built
- Cycle template – every prior halving produced a peak ~500‑600 days later; we applied a ±35 % volatility buffer around those glide‑paths.
- Macro stress scenarios – the stagflation/authoritarian track adds 0–30 % premium (capital flight) or subtracts up to 25 % (criminalisation/transaction bans), weighted by our timeline probabilities.
- Adoption curve – ETF ownership share, corporate‑treasury penetration, and UK/US retail ownership each follow S‑curves calibrated to 2010‑2024 data.
- Regulatory shock factor – discrete risk of US/UK banning self‑custody (~10 % by 2030) or imposing punitive taxes (~25 %), trimmed from the top end of each confidence band.
Key caveats
- Black‑swans – protocol failures, quantum‑attack breakthroughs, or global wartime asset freezes could break the model.
- Confidence bands widen after 2030 because crypto’s long‑run variance remains ~70 % annualised.
- Not investment advice – projections are directional estimates, not guarantees.
These price lanes integrate the authoritarian‑risk timeline you requested; should political repression stifle fiat on‑/off‑ramps faster than expected, the lower bounds would dominate. Conversely, if capital controls bite while self‑custody remains legal, the upper bounds could look conservative.
- Comment on [deleted] 2 weeks ago:
It’s not it’s mostly daft memes and pictures. I wish it was more political.
- Comment on What would it mean for the world if America was confident they developed a technology that would act as a fool prove deterrent from nuclear attacks what would that mean for the rest of the world? 2 weeks ago:
I think the US has already achieved it and aren’t saying anything.
Think how much money they’ve poured in there over the decades, as much as the rest of the world combined.
They were working on directed energy weapons in the 80s to neutralise them from space, but the tech was ‘decades away’. They had a working pilot way back in 2000 too.
- Comment on Excellent tip 5 weeks ago:
Also google photos, Facebook, and lots of other places people store photos.
- Comment on Heat pumps to be sold ‘smart-ready’ in plans to save households money 5 weeks ago:
You just need to fit a few treacle extractor vents. Takes sometime with the right tools a few minutes to do.
- Comment on Uncovered emails showed how Meta struggled to keep Facebook culturally relevant 5 weeks ago:
They could’ve just added some opt-in privacy features / data protection and people would’ve loved it.
- Comment on How wil people react if Trump is right about Tariffs? 1 month ago:
Brother you should take a step back from politics if this is the depth of analysis you’re capable of.
- Comment on Did sites end up making money from API restrictions? 2 months ago:
You can still scrape Reddit without the api. Main reason was to prevent people using 3rd party apps.
- Comment on Why do most Americans use an iPhone? 2 months ago:
Because id rather pay more for a product than be it.
- Comment on Why do most Americans use an iPhone? 2 months ago:
I have no need for third party apps.
For anything beyond texting or scrolling, I have a desktop.
- Comment on Does Aphantasia exist for senses other than vision? 3 months ago:
People with aphantasia have improved spatial memory that tries to compensate for episodic memory.
So the first thing that I feel when I try to remember something is my position in the room, or where the person speaking to me was standing.
Same thing if I try and ‘see’ a circle. I’ll just feel the dimensions. Hard to describe but it’s almost like pressure in my frontal cortex. A circle feels like coming down from the left and right in a circular pattern, whereas a tree feels like the pressure is at the bottom pushing up.
- Comment on Does Aphantasia exist for senses other than vision? 3 months ago:
Yes I’m blind across all internal senses.
- Comment on Ye Takes Back Apology and Calls Himself a Nazi in Social Media Rant 3 months ago:
He’s now saying it’s autism btw.
