booly
@booly@sh.itjust.works
- Comment on Where does the revenue gathered from taxes go and what is national debt? 1 week ago:
The Federal Reserve is the entity that can creates dollars out of thin air, bevause they control the interest rate of the dollar.
They control the base currency by physically printing dollars and lending money directly to banks. Then, more significantly, they influence the money supply by influencing how much commercial banks are lending, through interest rate operations, and sometimes through market operations that provide liquidity for certain types of securities (especially government bonds).
Taken together, it’s the power to create or destroy money in response to macroeconomic trends.
- Comment on Where does the revenue gathered from taxes go and what is national debt? 1 week ago:
The Federal Reserve system is independant of the US federal government.
Kinda. The board of governors is chosen by the president to 14-year terms, theoretically making them independent of any specific President’s specific priorities. But there’s a Supreme Court case heading when the President can fire the governors, which might effectively end or limit Fed independence.
The individual federal reserve banks also operate in their regions with a lot of leeway to meet local needs, and those are public/private partnerships where nationally chartered banks also have a voice in their operations.
- Comment on Where does the revenue gathered from taxes go and what is national debt? 1 week ago:
In my mind the concept was one of regulatory oversight.
No, the core concept is one of whether a bank has full reserves, sufficient to cover all of the deposit liability. If the bank keeps only a fraction of the total liability in reserves, then that’s a fractional reserve.
Do you think that when a bank loans money to another bank they are creating money out of thin air?
Yes, that creates money.
If they can do that then why do they need to borrow money?
They need to borrow money for liquidity, to cover the payments they owe to others. An IOU isn’t money, so having a bunch of IOUs in the asset column may require a bank to pledge those IOUs to borrow some money from someone else, maybe even another bank. Then, with money in hand, they can make payments to fund their own operations (pay employees, rent, vendors, taxes, etc.) and pay depositors on demand.
And as a financial institution borrows too much and pays that interest, or is overextended without enough assets to remain solvent/liquid to be able to make payments as they’re due, they may find themselves with insufficient creditworthiness to be able to borrow freely (as other banks are wary of lending to someone who might not pay back). And they might fail. So that general concern always provides a limit on how much they can borrow from other private entities.
They can borrow from the central bank as a lender of last resort, but that carries a cost (and can still only borrow as much as their assets can support). If they’re paying more interest to their creditors than they’re collecting from their borrowers, they’re gonna fail.
Do you believe that the US government must collect taxes before it can spend money? Or do you agree that government spending is self financed and money creation (in spending by the US government) is only limited by concerns of inflation?
No, the government can (and does) borrow money to finance its operations, as well. For the U.S., the sheer amount of government spending is such a high percentage of economic activity that it would be highly inflationary to combine the fiscal power of spending money with the monetary power of controlling the money supply (through creation of base currency, influencing private transactions and interest rates to control bank-created money, and buying/selling securities on the open market).
I think if we lived in a different system without an independent central bank, we’d see a lot of different things going on, including a temptation to elected officials to just create money without regard to inflationary effects. But in the current system, most of the money is created by banks.
Do you believe that Banks hold digital money in their reserves? I do.
Yes, that’s what we’ve been talking about the whole time. When a commercial bank creates a loan, that’s just a ledger that creates an asset in one column and a liability in another column. It could be paper, or it could be digitally stored. If the funds are transferred electronically to another bank, that’s often an electronic record with no physical movement of anything. So yes, those are effectively digital dollars that can be withdrawn as paper money on demand at any given time.
- Comment on Where does the revenue gathered from taxes go and what is national debt? 1 week ago:
it’s true that banks can create money when they lend more than they have in reserves and assets
To be clear, the article is saying (and I’m saying) that the bank creates money every time it makes a loan, in the amount of the loan. Regardless of whatever its reserve and asset situation is. An asset and a liability are created in that moment that cancel out, and then each side can take their asset and do something with it: the borrower uses that cash to spend, and the lender uses that loan balance as an asset it can borrow against or otherwise count on income from.
IMO bank loans are credit but the bank loans are repaid with actual money.
It’s repaid with actual money, but it’s all actual money. When the loan is created the balance in the deposit account can be withdrawn or transferred from there and it’s real money that can buy real goods and real services. The money is created, and then it’s real money in the economy. Then the loan is repaid with real money, and then destroyed in the act of repayment and reducing the balance owed on the loan.
Also, you mentioned fractional reserve banking but that no longer exists. It ended around 2020 when the government changed regulations and no longer requires banks to hold any ratio of reserves to debt.
No, that had the opposite effect of what you think. The minimum reserve requirement was abolished, so banks could then do fractional reserve banking in any fraction they pleased, including even smaller ratios than what was previously allowed. The change in regulation didn’t eliminate fractional reserve banking; it eliminated limits on fractional reserve banking, and every bank continued to hold a reserve that is much, much smaller than 100% of the amount of their deposit liabilities. So the fractions still exist. And can continue to exist in any number, with other practical limits on their ability to loan (creditworthiness and solvency).
- Comment on How much money should one person realistically make or have? 1 week ago:
VTWAX is still like 65% US equities. It hasn’t diversified out of U.S. exposure (and frankly, international stocks aren’t protected from U.S. economic crises). A lot of people think about full blown collapse and crisis, but wouldn’t know what to do about lethargy and stagnation for decades, but still roughly the same economic and financial paradigm.
I think U.S. equities are overpriced right now, especially when looking at market cap weighted indexes (because the U.S. tech bubble seems to represent a much higher percentage of any given index). And I’m concerned that the correction will just be decades of tepid growth or even stagnation where decades of investment won’t actually earn a good return. Not that I’m investing in something else, other than maybe the soft skills I’ve described in my earlier comment.
- Comment on Where does the revenue gathered from taxes go and what is national debt? 1 week ago:
Your own link from the Bank of England starts off with the thesis that agrees with me:
This article explains how the majority of money in the modern economy is created by commercial banks making loans
And you might as well link to the canonical URL of the PDF or the Bank of England website landing page for that article instead of Google Drive acting as a middleman.
The money in the bank’s reserves started its life by being created by the federal government.
No, you’re misunderstanding how the money supply works. The creation of physical printed money might happen by the government, but those physical dollars represent such a small portion of the overall money supply.
First of all, through fractional reserve banking, one physical dollar can get multiplied many times over to represent many dollars in circulation. Especially because most transactions happen on paper, through a ledger that transfers funds from one account to another.
Everything you’re saying still relates to the practical limits of money creation by commercial banks, in terms of creditworthiness (banks don’t want to lend money they can’t get back) and liquidity/regulation (banks don’t want to be left vulnerable without sufficient reserves to satisfy account holders demanding their deposits).
Realistically, the bank takes one of their own assets, such as the balance on the loan, and uses that as collateral to borrow liquid cash as needed for its own reserves (which are only a fraction of the total deposits in its accounts). And every dollar in a circle in a closed loop that doesn’t touch the Fed is a dollar that doesn’t actually trace back to a governmental entity. The Fed is a lender of last resort, but they’re a last resort because they generally charge higher interest than bank to bank loans.
So of the entire money supply, the vast majority of it is dollars created by banks, not dollars created by the government.
- Comment on How much money should one person realistically make or have? 1 week ago:
To me, exploitation by association is still exploitation.
But by this telling, the billionaire isn’t any less moral than the person who buys the tickets. If simply transacting with this system is unethical, then the billionaires aren’t any worse than the millionaires, or even the people barely subsisting on what they have.
In my eyes, there’s a huge difference between the person who actively exploits others, and one who incidentally interacts with a person who exploits others. Especially if choosing to opt out wouldn’t actually reduce the exploitation happening. There are still degrees to things, so it’s entirely possible for the billionaire artist to be ethically superior to the millionaire venue operator, even when they both rely on the other.
Not to mention, there’s a difference in kind when talking about exploitation in terms of a team effort where not enough of the fruits of the labor get shared fairly with all team members (positive sum interactions) versus when one actively takes from another, and that victim is worse off from the transaction.
- Comment on Where does the revenue gathered from taxes go and what is national debt? 1 week ago:
Money begins its life by being spent by the federal government.
No, in the modern system, money is created by commercial banks when they give a loan.
At the moment a loan for $1 million is created, a bank takes $0 and then turns it into two accounts: a loan with a balance of negative $1 million owed, and a deposit account with a balance of $1 million that can be withdrawn. From the bank’s perspective, and the borrower’s perspective, they went from having $0 to suddenly each having $1 million in assets and $1 million in liabilities, for a net value of zero. Obviously there are going to be fees and stuff paid out, and interest charged over the life of the loan, but you can think of that as fees for services rendered.
The money in that deposit account, created out of thin air, can then be spent elsewhere and enter the economy.
The limits on the ability of banks to do that indefinitely is default risk (the bank is left holding the bag if the borrower doesn’t repay) and liquidity (the bank needs to be able to use the loan balances as an asset on its balance sheets to go and borrow cash for its own operations so that its accountholders always have the ability to withdraw money on demand) and government regulation (the Federal Reserve and the FDIC have various regulations requiring their balance sheets to be able to survive stress tests and other adverse economic events).
So even though the government, through Federal Reserve policy, controls how private market participants might choose to create money, the actual act of money creation happens in the banks, not in the government (except when the government is acting as a bank by lending money through its loan programs).
- Comment on How much money should one person realistically make or have? 1 week ago:
but 3.25-3.5% is basically impossible to go broke with,
Historically it has not been enough to draw down funds that are invested in a broad American stock market index like the S&P500. But that doesn’t make it impossible. A 20-30 year run that looks like the Nikkei 225 between 1990 and 2020 could wipe out portfolios on a 3% withdrawal rate. Even a 2% withdrawal rate would’ve run out of money in 32 years.
I’m kinda bearish about the continued dominance of the “invest in publicly traded large cap American equities” strategy over the coming decades, so I’m a bit more conservative in my savings rate, and what securities/assets I’m actually invested in, including soft assets like my own earning ability if I were to bail on this country and move somewhere else (fluency in another language, job skill sets that translate outside of the US borders, relationships/network with people who don’t rely on the US).
And I know that’s not the central point you’re making. But there are plenty of people who might not feel secure with $1.5 million or even $3 million or $6 million in investible wealth, especially if it’s tied up in one particular asset or asset class, or otherwise less liquid than publicly traded securities.
- Comment on How much money should one person realistically make or have? 1 week ago:
I’ve also heard salaries over $£€70,000 no longer increase happiness.
No, that study was debunked. Turns out that some subset of unhappy people will remain unhappy even if you give them all the money in the world, so looking purely at the least happy people in America, you’ll notice that their happiness stops going up at $75,000 in 2010 dollars. But if you focus on people who are already on the happier side of the spectrum, more money keeps buying them more happiness, even if the slope of that relationship tapers a bit.
Side note, the way the two sides reconciled their methodologies, that produced different results, was a really interesting way to perform science, and should be followed in the future whenever there are well respected studies that contradict each other.
- Comment on How much money should one person realistically make or have? 1 week ago:
It’s impossible to become a billionaire after that without exploiting others, whether that is workers, employees, investors…whoever.
People say this, but I don’t think it’s true.
If I simply ask for people to give me money if they like me, and I get 1 million people to give me a dollar each, then I become a millionaire. Nobody’s being taken advantage of, everyone is voluntarily doing this.
Getting to a billion is a lot harder but not impossible. If I ask and 10 million people give me $100 each over the course of 10 years, I might make a billion dollars that way.
So who can do this kind of “ask people for money” at these scales? Anyone who provides a service where the marginal cost of each additional recipient of that service doesn’t cost anything. A musician playing music in a subway station performs basically the same amount of work whether 10 people walk by or 1000 people walk by in the time that he performs. And if you’re a recording artist, you might release a song that literally over a billion people enjoy.
Yes, sports leagues and movie studios and record labels and Ticketmaster and book publishers and live venues and broadcasters and tech platforms are often exploitative in many ways, but authors, musicians, artists, filmmakers, comedians, and other creators can and do sometimes do things that make the world better by billions of dollars worth of happiness, while taking a cut worth hundreds of millions, or even billions.
Ultimately, we do things that produce value in some way or another. Sometimes we get to keep the fruits of our labor, and sometimes we get to profit from that value created. Often, as in the world of intellectual property, the value is very far removed from the actual cost to produce, including the cost in terms of human labor. When that happens, sometimes the excess value is worth billions. Even without a big team creating that value.
- Comment on Is there a point we can track down when we stopped caring about doctors, nurses, teacher, etc? And thought it was a great idea to pay atheletes millions and screw everyone else? 1 week ago:
There are about 500 NBA roster spots. Total basketball related income across the league is $10.25 billion, and the CBA requires that player income make up half of that. So there’s $5.13 billion to split between 500 players, an average/mean of $10.25 million per full time player (some players get called up or put on reserve when injuries or something like that happen).
There are about 3.8 million public school teachers in K-12. If you took literally every dollar paid to NBA players and gave it to public school teachers, that’d be about $1350 per teacher.
There are other sports, of course, but we’re also talking about nurses and doctors and EMTs and public librarians and other important underpaid jobs. Taking all money from sports isn’t going to make much of a dent in those other jobs’ pay.
- Comment on Is there a point we can track down when we stopped caring about doctors, nurses, teacher, etc? And thought it was a great idea to pay atheletes millions and screw everyone else? 1 week ago:
Ridiculous pay for star athletes and celebrities is at least fair
Put another way, we as a society actually do spend wayyy more money on doctors, nurses, and teachers. It’s just that there are many millions of people who have to split that pot of money, whereas for pro athletes there are only a few dozen or a few hundred to split that comparably smaller pot of money with.
I might have the same favorite NBA player as literally millions of people in this country. I for sure don’t have the same favorite doctor or favorite teacher, though.
So if a genie showed up and said “give $1 to your favorite celebrity and give $100 to your favorite teacher,” we as a society would give way more money to the teachers, but each individual teacher would receive less than each individual celebrity who gets paid under this system.
- Comment on 2 weeks ago:
there is a exact method to get the right answer and you can easily check/prove why you’re right.
There might be many methods to get the right answer, and you might not know which ones are easy and which are really difficult (and which are tricky enough to make mistakes more likely) until you try a few different approaches and maybe hit a few dead ends.
What is the sum of every integer from 1 to 99? Well, you can manually apply the arithmetic, adding two numbers at a time, but that’s going to take forever. Better to use a particular method of summing arithmetic sequences and get an easy answer in fewer steps.
Or take this deceptively simple looking problem of trying to integrate x to the x power, where the question asker is messing up their initial approach and the answers show several different concepts that are useful for solving.
With actually difficult problems, the difference between a good approach and a bad one can be the difference between the problem being actually solvable versus not solvable using the resources to have at your disposal (computing power, actual time, etc.).
- Comment on Gotta Catch 'Em All 2 weeks ago:
Yeah, seems like someone could pass the test by only knowing pokemon, which isn’t what we’d want in testing people on their drug knowledge.
- Comment on Gotta Catch 'Em All 2 weeks ago:
Actually, I suppose a name being used for a drug or a Pokémon precludes it from being used for the other, so it is a very shared issue, lol.
Theoretically, unrelated trademarks can have the exact same name in different fields, owned by completely different owners, but that generally only applies to trademarks that are regular words that are already in use: Apple Computer versus Apple Music (which the Beatles owned and ended up selling to Apple Computer), Monster Energy Drink versus Monster Cable versus Monster Jobs, Dove soap versus Dove chocolate, etc.
Still, the law looks to likelihood of customer confusion, and maybe it would be too confusing to have a Pokemon named Ozempic.
- Comment on U.S. consumers are so fucked up, that they put more than $1 billion on buy-now, pay later services during Cyber Monday 4 weeks ago:
Yeah but it’s pretty nice to be able to take advantage of a promo deal as long as it’s not a sticky long term relationship. Some people in this thread are talking about a reward system of 20% cash back on what you put on BNPL, and 0% interest, as some kind of Paypal promo going on during Black Friday.
If you take the deal as a one time thing, it’s a great deal. They hope that you might get used to using the service next time it’s not such a great deal, but if they don’t have a way to lock you in, then just take the money and run.
See, for example, the glorious year of MoviePass setting its own money on fire. People got great deals on movie tickets, and then the company went bankrupt and didn’t keep their customers.
- Comment on happy buy nothing day to those who celebrate 5 weeks ago:
The base price of TVs have gotten so cheap that in terms of absolute savings, even a true 50% discount wouldn’t seem like a big deal.
30 years ago, when a big screen TV might cost the same as 3 months rent in a 3 bedroom apartment, getting 50% off was like getting 1.5 months rent. Now, when a big TV costs less than a quarter of a month’s rent for a studio apartment, getting 50% off a TV is like getting 3 days rent.
Modern life is expensive because of housing, not because of stuff. Giving us better prices on stuff doesn’t even help make this life more affordable.
- Comment on The existence of billionaires is a policy failure 1 month ago:
Honestly, the space race part of it isn’t concerning to me at all. The fact that it’s between billionaire-backed companies is several policy failures, though.
NASA has traditionally relied heavily on defense/space contractors. The space shuttle was built by Rockwell International (which was eventually acquired by Boeing).
The Saturn V rocket that took people to the moon was manufactured by Boeing, Douglas (which became part of McDonnell Douglas, which was acquired by Boeing), and North American (which got acquired by Rockwell, which was acquired by Boeing).
But through consolidation in the American aerospace industry, the bloated behemoth that is modern Boeing has serious issues holding it back. And so the rise of new competition against Boeing is generally a good thing!
Except the only companies that were started up to compete with Boeing were funded largely as ego projects by billionaires who made so much money in other fields that they have excess billions to throw around.
NASA’s new approach to contracting is fine, too: basically promising prizes to companies that hit milestones, which put the risk (and potential reward) on the private companies. Then, once SpaceX did demonstrate feasibility, NASA switched to fixed price contracts for a lot of the programs and did save a ton of money compared to previous cost-plus contract pricing. It’s unclear whether other space companies can deliver services at prices competitive with SpaceX, but their attempts at least force SpaceX to bid lower prices.
Ideally, we would’ve retained a competitive aerospace industry in the past few decades, and a bunch of companies would be competing with each other to continue delivering space services to NASA and other space agencies (and private sector customers that might want satellite stuff). And these companies would be big corporate entities where the major shareholders aren’t exactly household names (like Boeing today).
The way Bezos and Musk became billionaires would be a problem even if they didn’t try to go to space. The way they’re trying to go to space doesn’t really move the needle much, in my opinion.
- Comment on Shamelessly stolen from Reddit 4 months ago:
Why are you forgiving student loans?
That’s the federal government’s administration of a federal government program, so no, that’s not the same at all.
Why do you tip servers in America?
That’s the basic deal. If a restaurant implements a no tipping policy, they’re allowed to do that. I don’t see how that’s the same or different from a restaurant implementing a “discount for veterans” or “no discounts for veterans” policy. It sounds like we’re in favor of a system where the restaurant chooses what they want to be about, whether it’s a tip-based system or not, or a discounts for vets place or not.
So in a sense, it sounds like you agree with me that we should let the restaurants choose. Neither choice is a “punishment” of anyone.
- Comment on Shamelessly stolen from Reddit 4 months ago:
But really you’re just punishing veterans with PTSD
Failing to give special treatment to someone is not punishing them. Especially when we’re talking about special treatment for an entire category of people, most of whom don’t have PTSD (estimates range from 6-27% of those deployed to a war zone, and not all veterans served in a war zone), many of whom are financially well off.
Maybe the VA and the federal government should do more for vets. Maybe the military itself should take care of the troops a bit better. But asking private businesses to prop up veterans at their own expense seems like a misguided approach.
- Comment on Anon breaks up 5 months ago:
defend yourself criminally
Robust criminal defense
These court proceedings aren’t criminal cases. They’re more like hearings on restraining orders and things of that nature. Like I said, this is generally less than a single day’s work for a lawyer, 2-5 hours.
I’m comparing middle of the road prices for handguns ($500-$1200) to middle of the road prices for a lawyer who can handle one of these hearings ($500-$1500). I still think it’s financially irresponsible to own more than 3 guns and not have a $1000 emergency fund.
- Comment on Anon breaks up 5 months ago:
If you can’t see the difference between buying one gun every x months and paying a lawyer 4 to 5 figures all in one go that’s on you.
You’re off by an order of magnitude. I’m saying the lawyer would cost between 3 to low 4 figures, generally less than a single gun.
Time is linear and you can’t sell what was taken from you.
The ownership of the gun hasn’t changed. That owner can sell the gun even if they can’t physically possess it. Federal law requiring relinquishment of firearms (like upon conviction of a disqualifying felony or domestic violence misdemeanor) explicitly provides for selling the guns as a way to comply with the order. Each state is different in their rules on selling weapons already in the police’s possession, and states require that transfer to go through an FFL, but most do not.
Look, I’m a gun owner. And I think part of being a responsible gun owner means having the financial means to actually deal with the consequences of owning, and potentially using, that firearm. I think it’s a defect of American gun culture that there are so many people with concealed carry licenses who wouldn’t even know how to contact a lawyer if they were to actually fire a gun in a real situation, whether it’s a legitimate self defense situation or a negligent discharge. Gun ownership carries important responsibilities, and there is such a thing as someone who is too poor to responsibly own a gun (much less enough to where the phrase “all my guns” carries its own implicit meaning).
- Comment on Anon breaks up 5 months ago:
The issue with red flag laws is that they completely bypass this.
It’s my understanding that every state with a red flag law imposes a procedure similar to involuntary commitment: a court weighing evidence presented to it under penalty of perjury, with a heavy presumption that these orders are only for extremely rare situations.
Florida’s procedure, for example, requires a petition from the police to the court, and requires the police to show the court that the person is suffering from a serious mental illness, has committed acts of violence, or has credibly threatened acts of violence (to self or others). In ordinary cases the person whose guns are being taken away has an opportunity to be heard in court before the judge decides, but in emergency cases the court can order the guns be taken away for up to 14 days, and requires an opportunity for the person to be heard in court.
So in practice, in Florida, someone would have to convince the police they’re a danger, and then provide enough evidence that the police can persuade a judge. Private citizens aren’t allowed to petition the court directly, and the process requires proof of a serious enough set of facts to justify taking guns away.
- Comment on Anon breaks up 5 months ago:
Gun suicides are a huge problem, so there is a legitimate need for interventions in the appropriate circumstances. Suicidal ideation is also usually an impulsive or fleeting idea, so removing the means of suicide only temporarily can be a solution to that temporary problem.
The Swiss saw suicide rates drop with reduced access to firearms in shrinking their military, and the Israeli military has seen weekend suicide rates drop by simply having troops check in their weapons into armories over weekends, without a corresponding change in weekday suicides.
Anti-suicide nets on bridges work very well, too, because simply making a suicide more inconvenient, or require a bit more planning, is often enough to just make it so that the suicide attempt never happens.
So yeah. I’m generally against restrictions on firearm ownership or access for people who can be responsible with them, but I’m 100% on board with interventions for taking guns away for mental health crises, and restrictions on those found by a court to have engaged in domestic violence. And, like, convicted criminals, too.
- Comment on Anon breaks up 5 months ago:
Do you really believe that “all my guns, bullets and reloading material” is cheaper than a lawyer for a hearing like this? In my mind that phrase represents thousands of dollars worth of gun stuff, and a lawyer who can represent you in a TRO hearing might be about $500-1500 ($200/hour, maybe 2-8 hours of work for that first hearing).
- Comment on Anon breaks up 5 months ago:
Florida seems to be the state most likely to use the law.
I wonder if the stat is skewed by the fact that Florida has the largest population of Florida Men.
- Comment on When will we have reached enough productivity? 5 months ago:
Increasing productivity of workers is met with demand for more production-intensive products. It’s like how every time hardware improves, software becomes more complex to take advantage of that increased capability. It’s like Jevon’s Paradox, but applied to productivity of workers.
One prominent example: our farmers are more productive than ever. So we move up the value chain, and have farmers growing more luxury crops that aren’t actually necessary for sustenance. We overproduce grains and legumes, and then feed them to animals to raise meat. We were so productive with different types of produce that we decided to go on hard mode and create just-in-time supply chains for multiple cultivars so that supermarkets sell dozens of types of fresh apples, tomatoes, potatoes, onions, etc., and end up eating much more fresh produce of diverse varieties compared to our parents and grandparents, who may have relied more heavily on frozen or canned produce, with limited variety.
- Comment on 5 months ago:
apparently then it was around 20% to 25% as well
No, the unemployment rate was around 20-25% under the traditional definition. It’s currently 4.2% under that definition.
If you want to use this LISEP definition, fine, but recognize that it’s been above 30% for most of its existence, and has only been under 25% since COVID. Basically, if you go by the LISEP definition then you’re saying that the job market after COVID has been better than it has ever been before.
- Comment on 5 months ago:
When the definition of unemployed is changed to exclude the majority of working age people without jobs then it is no longer a helpful statistic.
U-3 has used the same definition of unemployed since 1940.
Whatever metric you want to use, you should look at that number and how it changes over time, to get a sense of trend lines. LISEP says the “true” unemployment rate is currently 24.3% in May 2025, which is basically the lowest it’s ever been.
Since the metric was created in 1994, the first time that it dipped below 25% was briefly in the late 2010’s, right before COVID, and then has been under 25% since September 2021.
Under this alternative metric of unemployment, the unemployment rate is currently one of the lowest in history.