Probability.... Need I say more?!

Comments

• SirSamuel@lemmy.world ⁨11⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  I understand some of these words

  Brb, gotta go eat a crayon

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  • nova_ad_vitum@lemmy.ca ⁨11⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    There’s various technicalities of how and where Beysian statistics apply to the world but I really interpreted it as meaning “if the world is ending then it doesn’t matter and if not then I’m up $50”. The Beysian is just ruthlessly practical.

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    • callyral@pawb.social ⁨11⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      Not only that, but there’s a higher chance of the detector lying than the Sun supernova-ing, so it’s probably a false positive. Yes I did just read 3–4 Wikipedia articles.

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  • subtext@lemmy.world ⁨11⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    For the rest of us:

    explainxkcd.com/…/1132:_Frequentists_vs._Bayesian…

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    • SirSamuel@lemmy.world ⁨11⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      Thank you, I’ll check it out eventually

      BTW they call it Peach but it tastes like candle

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• Bye@lemmy.world ⁨11⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  I don’t like this comic because the frequentist statistician is operating with an effective n=1. You’d ask the detector 1000 more times, and use those results to get your answer.

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  • lseif@sopuli.xyz ⁨11⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    sample size of 1 is usually fine. source: i surveyed 1 person

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  • General_Effort@lemmy.world ⁨11⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    Take it as a commentary on publication bias.

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• don@lemm.ee ⁨11⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  “Detector! Has the sun gone nova?”

  “Calculating… results available in 9 minutes and 14 seconds.”

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• troyunrau@lemmy.ca ⁨11⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  Missing: any sort of physicist who will tell them both that the forward model says that the sun won’t explode for a few billion years, and so far that model hasn’t been wrong.

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  • Moghul@lemmy.world ⁨11⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    Isn’t our sun too small to explode at all? IIRC the sun will expand enough to engulf the earth’s orbit but will eventually shrink to a dwarf.

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