If it is on a collision course we probably have time to do something about it. If we don’t do anything about it it’ll probably hit the ocean and it’s not big enough to cause any kind of crazy mega tsunami or anything like that. If it does hit land it’ll probably hit in the middle of nowhere and kill, like, 12 people, and if it does manage to beat all the odds and hit a major city it will be a major disaster, but it’s not going to be the apocalypse or anything.
Comment on place yer bets
LibertyLizard@slrpnk.net 1 day ago
So what level of calamity are we talking about here? 3% doesn’t sound that low to me.
yozul@beehaw.org 1 day ago
Morgoon@startrek.website 1 day ago
Well we wouldn’t have to worry about global warming anymore
deegeese@sopuli.xyz 1 day ago
This size meteor would destroy a city but not have lasting planet-scale effects. Think Tonguska event.
Xiisadaddy@lemmygrad.ml 1 day ago
Yes we would? This isnt a planet killer. Its a city killer. Plus theyll know where itll hit and can evacuate the area before hand. There is no reason a single person should die from this rock unless someone does something stupid.
Xiisadaddy@lemmygrad.ml 1 day ago
They arent 100% sure on the size but itll be a regional disaster. Few hundred square miles of destruction. And theyll be able to evacuate the area before hand. Itll land somewhere between south america and india theres a line map you can find of the area that could be hit and thatll get narrowed down as time goes on. We will know where its gonna hit far in advance if it does hit.
Enkers@sh.itjust.works 1 day ago
I recall hearing it was medium-ish nuclear weapon sized, but not wipe out civilisation size. Wherever it’s heading would need to be evacuated.
That was a week ago, though, and I’m sure the size projections will be updated as we get more data.
LadyAutumn@lemmy.blahaj.zone 1 day ago
This is correct. Current estimates place a possible impact event at an energy release of ~7.8 Megatons of TNT. Approximately 500 times the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Comparable to the Tunguska Event. This is accounting for current size estimates under 100m in diameter.
It is a very serious asteroid. The Tunguska Event could have killed millions of people. The primary reason it didn’t was because it happened in the middle of Siberia. The primary witnesses to the devastation were local native groups who still lived that for out, of which there were few. It wasn’t properly investigated for nearly 2 decades because of the remoteness of where it happened and the low priority as it didn’t affect very many people. If that happened over a major city the consequences would be utterly devastating.
It’s not K-T Extinction event level, but it is probably the most serious possible impactor since we started monitoring those.
knightly@pawb.social 1 day ago
We’ll get a better idea of whether it’ll hit or not in 2028 the next time it passes close to earth, which will give us plenty of time to respond before it might hit in 2032.
apprehensively_human@lemmy.ca 23 hours ago
Except that 2028 would also be our window to do something about it before it disappears back into space. There needs to be a plan now, even if that plan is to wait and see where it’s going to hit.
knightly@pawb.social 11 hours ago
In short, we already have a plan. DART proved that we can do it, and off-the-shelf rockets like the Falcon 9 have plenty of performance. All that remains is to wait until early 2028 when we get a proper fix on the asteroid, then we’ve got 7 or 8 months to prep and launch a mission before the window of opportunity closes.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Esk1hg2knno
DontRedditMyLemmy@lemmy.world 1 day ago
4 years to develop an effective anti-asteroid response?
knightly@pawb.social 1 day ago
Well, yeah. Deflecting an impact that’s scheduled 4 years in the future wouldn’t take much force and we did it once before with the DART mission. We can just do that again in the months between when the asteroid comes back around and when it flies past us.