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Comment on 50% survival rate
sjmarf@sh.itjust.works 3 months agoThe normal person thinks that because the last 20 people survived, the next patient is very likely to die.
The mathematician considers that the probability of success for each surgery is independent, so in the mathematician’s eyes the next patient has a 50% chance of survival.
The scientist thinks that the statistic is probably gathered across a large number of different hospitals. They see that this particular surgery has an unusually high success rate, so they conclude that their own surgery has a >50% chance of success.
GoodEye8@lemm.ee 3 months ago
sjmarf@sh.itjust.works 3 months ago
Or do think there’s something special about the person that makes them flip tails more often?
Yes, that’s the conclusion that the scientist has come to. The chance of getting 20 in a row is so extraordinarily unlikely that it’s reasonable to conclude that the chance is not 50/50 for that particular surgeon.
Deconceptualist@lemm.ee 3 months ago
Thanks. I suspect a mathematician would consider the latter point too though.
x00za@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 months ago
Normal people too.
meep_launcher@lemm.ee 3 months ago
And my me mate paul
SaharaMaleikuhm@feddit.org 3 months ago
My aunt Nancy would surely be in the 50% who die
RecluseRamble@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 months ago
The popularity of casinos and lotteries say otherwise.
cazssiew@lemmy.world 3 months ago
Someone who goes to casinos would think exactly like this, that the surgeon is ‘running hot’.
arefx@lemmy.ml 3 months ago
Anyone with a good high school education will understand this.
Deconceptualist@lemm.ee 3 months ago
That’s sort of why I asked. I thought I was missing something but no, the meme is apparently assuming academic professionals are dummies. Not to say that we should expect nuance and robust portrayals from a meme.