The last election Clayton had a 58% turnout. So there might be some potential Binface supporters who didn’t vote last time.
I don’t think Clacton is likely to flip, but there is an outside chance.
Comment on British public more likely to prefer Count Binface wins Clacton by-election than Nigel Farage
echodot@feddit.uk 23 hours agoFarage won Clapton with 45% of the vote with multiple candidates. That same showing this time would lose him the vote. Which would be hilarious because not only would it on seat Farage, it would also be the fifth by-election they failed to win.
thehatfox@lemmy.world 21 hours ago
prole@lemmy.blahaj.zone 15 hours ago
Farage won Clapton with 45% of the vote
Now we just need to see if he can win Beck and Page. Maybe we can finally have a Yardbirds reunion.
FishFace@piefed.social 20 hours ago
You’re assuming that the “same showing” would see every person who voted for someone other than Farage vote for a joke candidate.
The premise of the “same showing” is already clearly implausible, without adding that on top
StealthLizardDrop@piefed.social 20 hours ago
in our causality, is binface really a joke candidate?
FishFace@piefed.social 19 hours ago
Is this a joke comment? Of course he’s a joke candidate.
SapphironZA@sh.itjust.works 4 hours ago
Because he is a lot more sane than the other candidate.
echodot@feddit.uk 19 hours ago
But this isn’t a normal by-election this is a by-election caused by someone who is under investigation for parliamentary misconduct and also is simultaneously under police investigation for criminal conspiracy to handle stolen money.
The normal rules don’t apply.
SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca 15 hours ago
And Nigel Farage is not a joke candidate? He took a £5M bribe in crypto, now seeks re election?
Ich bin ein binliner.
BlaestEgnen@feddit.dk 19 hours ago
But he’s the establishment candidate! Just ask Farage!
echodot@feddit.uk 19 hours ago
No because it’s percentage of the vote not quantity of votes.
All sorts of things could happen, perhaps the poor turn out in the last by-election was because people assumed he was a shoe in so didn’t bother to vote. Perhaps people forgot (it seems like the sort of place where voter apathy is quite high). Perhaps people will be more likely to vote in this election because it seems funny. Perhaps he has really pissed off a lot of his voters due to his complete absenteeism from the position.
FishFace@piefed.social 18 hours ago
All of these possibilities don’t change the fact that your assumption about the “same showing” is unrealistic. You can’t have the same showing because the candidates previously standing are not, so where do you allocate their votes? Do you think none of the 116 people who voted UKIP (yes, they still existed in 2024!) might vote Farage over Binface? What about a few of the 12,820 people who voted Conservative? Any of them might align better with Farage policies than “nationalise Adele”?
If you literally have the same showing you’ll have 21,225 votes for Farage, zero votes for any other candidate, and Farage will win with 100% of the vote.
There are a few far-fetched ways in which Binface could win. It’s possible - I don’t dispute that - but unlikely. My point, though, was about your argument based on the “same showing”.
echodot@feddit.uk 16 hours ago
Ah I see, so you’ve divided the world into your enemies and your allies and you think that people who you previously saw as your enemy will still be your enemy. The thing to remember is they don’t know you exist, nor do they care about what you’re thinking.
In the last election they might have voted for the conservatives because they wanted the conservatives to be in charge, a vote for the conservatives is also a vote against Farage, so perhaps they don’t want Reform and will vote for whatever least worst option is presented in order to not get Reform. In the last election that was a Conservative candidate, in this election that’s not an option so it’s binface or Farage, and if they’re voting against him then literally anything will be better.