Comment on British public more likely to prefer Count Binface wins Clacton by-election than Nigel Farage

Zorque@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

• echodot@feddit.uk ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  Farage won Clapton with 45% of the vote with multiple candidates. That same showing this time would lose him the vote. Which would be hilarious because not only would it on seat Farage, it would also be the fifth by-election they failed to win.

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  • FishFace@piefed.social ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    You’re assuming that the “same showing” would see every person who voted for someone other than Farage vote for a joke candidate.

    The premise of the “same showing” is already clearly implausible, without adding that on top

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    • StealthLizardDrop@piefed.social ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      in our causality, is binface really a joke candidate?

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      • FishFace@piefed.social ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

        Is this a joke comment? Of course he’s a joke candidate.

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    • echodot@feddit.uk ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      No because it’s percentage of the vote not quantity of votes.

      All sorts of things could happen, perhaps the poor turn out in the last by-election was because people assumed he was a shoe in so didn’t bother to vote. Perhaps people forgot (it seems like the sort of place where voter apathy is quite high). Perhaps people will be more likely to vote in this election because it seems funny. Perhaps he has really pissed off a lot of his voters due to his complete absenteeism from the position.

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      • FishFace@piefed.social ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

        All of these possibilities don’t change the fact that your assumption about the “same showing” is unrealistic. You can’t have the same showing because the candidates previously standing are not, so where do you allocate their votes? Do you think none of the 116 people who voted UKIP (yes, they still existed in 2024!) might vote Farage over Binface? What about a few of the 12,820 people who voted Conservative? Any of them might align better with Farage policies than “nationalise Adele”?

        If you literally have the same showing you’ll have 21,225 votes for Farage, zero votes for any other candidate, and Farage will win with 100% of the vote.

        There are a few far-fetched ways in which Binface could win. It’s possible - I don’t dispute that - but unlikely. My point, though, was about your argument based on the “same showing”.

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  • thehatfox@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    The last election Clayton had a 58% turnout. So there might be some potential Binface supporters who didn’t vote last time.

    I don’t think Clacton is likely to flip, but there is an outside chance.

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  • prole@lemmy.blahaj.zone ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    Farage won Clapton with 45% of the vote

    Now we just need to see if he can win Beck and Page. Maybe we can finally have a Yardbirds reunion.

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