Life ain’t fair. Neither is Monopoly. That’s the point!
Comment on The house always wins
Bongles@lemmy.zip 1 week agoI’ve heard one time around the board, but not two. The idea though was so the first player to go doesn’t have an advantage (which is kind of irrelevant after the first couple rolls unless they keep rolling high, but it FEELS like it matters I’m sure).
hansolo@lemmy.today 1 week ago
kossa@feddit.org 1 week ago
Which is basically just a die cast, but extended for no reason 😅
thebestaquaman@lemmy.world 1 week ago
I… the player that goes first has the EXACT SAME statistical advantage, regardless how many round trips you do before allowing purchases. No matter how many times you roll the dice, each player will, on average, be ≈7 places in front of the person that rolls after them (not exactly 7, because there are rules for rolling again on matching dice etc.). This is true for the first roll of the dice, and it is true for the millionth roll. The distance between two consecutive players is on average equal to the mean number of places you move on a turn.
Amir@lemmy.ml 1 week ago
Well, if you do infinite die rolls, your standard deviation becomes so high the “7” spaces bias will be relatively less significant
However, replacing first-mover advantage by RNGesus advantage is not significantly better
thebestaquaman@lemmy.world 1 week ago
That’s not how standard deviations work though. The point is that if you are n players, the probability of any given player starting is 1/n. After an arbitrary number of dice throws, the probability that a given player is ahead remains 1/n, when you account for the throw that decided who would go first.
Let’s put it this way: Would it be “more random” who goes first if you throw ten dice to decide instead of one? Of course not. But that’s essentially what you’re doing when you go “warm up” rounds. You’re just throwing the dice more times, and letting whoever has the highest total go first. Clearly, the probability that any given player gets the highest total remains 1/n, regardless how many dice are thrown.
Amir@lemmy.ml 6 days ago
I didn’t mean dice rolls for who starts, but moving around the board.
If you go around the board 0 times, there’s a 100% chance the player who started will be ahead.
If you go around the board 1 times, there’s a less-than-100% chance the player who started will be ahead.
Every added round around the board increases the.standard deviation of spaces moved. While the expected amount of spaces moved will still be higher for the first mover after their turn, the significance of this difference goes down as the standard deviation goes up.
Therefore, running 100 rounds around the board before starting the game will change the first-mover advantage from being ahead 100% of the time to, likely slightly more than 25% of the time but very close to 25%.