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jackr@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨5⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

I… don’t know if I want to believe someone who cites a gambling site as a credible source.

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Ludrol@szmer.info ⁨5⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
Prediction market is a tool to predict a future more accurately than asking people what will happen[1][2]

You can’t cash out on manifold.markets so I would not mark it as gambling unlike polymarket. It works like premium in-game currency
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- jackr@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨5⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  Yeah, I don’t think “asking people what will happen” is a reliable way to measure pretty much anything, let alone the future, so being more accurate than that is whatever. Additionally, I tried to find where the substack got his numbers for these chances from, and it seems like the answer is out of his ass? So that isn’t very credible either in my opinion.
  
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HeyThisIsntTheYMCA@lemmy.world ⁨5⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
i’d take the citation for economics. maybe business. not physics.

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