> First, the researchers have a high degree of credential credibility. […] These are very much not software engineers who think they’ve solved alchemy after talking with ChatGPT for a year or something. […] > Optimistically, in my mind this leaves about 10% odds that fusion energy becomes commercialized or at least piloted over the next couple decades and Marathon Fusion’s approach for the alchemical production of gold becomes a meaningful consideration for these fusion plants! That’s pretty high, and implies a high value for continuing to research this technology, even if not necessarily for Marathon Fusion specifically. Manifold traders are giving this proposition ~20% odds, which likely reflects the discount rate on a market that only resolves in 10 years, although it also leaves room for other potential methodologies for gold production (presumably also through fusion energy but who knows).