We’ll get a better idea of whether it’ll hit or not in 2028 the next time it passes close to earth, which will give us plenty of time to respond before it might hit in 2032.
Comment on place yer bets
Enkers@sh.itjust.works 1 day agoI recall hearing it was medium-ish nuclear weapon sized, but not wipe out civilisation size. Wherever it’s heading would need to be evacuated.
That was a week ago, though, and I’m sure the size projections will be updated as we get more data.
knightly@pawb.social 1 day ago
apprehensively_human@lemmy.ca 1 day ago
Except that 2028 would also be our window to do something about it before it disappears back into space. There needs to be a plan now, even if that plan is to wait and see where it’s going to hit.
knightly@pawb.social 17 hours ago
In short, we already have a plan. DART proved that we can do it, and off-the-shelf rockets like the Falcon 9 have plenty of performance. All that remains is to wait until early 2028 when we get a proper fix on the asteroid, then we’ve got 7 or 8 months to prep and launch a mission before the window of opportunity closes.
DontRedditMyLemmy@lemmy.world 1 day ago
4 years to develop an effective anti-asteroid response?
knightly@pawb.social 1 day ago
Well, yeah. Deflecting an impact that’s scheduled 4 years in the future wouldn’t take much force and we did it once before with the DART mission. We can just do that again in the months between when the asteroid comes back around and when it flies past us.
DontRedditMyLemmy@lemmy.world 1 day ago
I think the DART mission picked a target of some convenience. This is no arbitrary target - it picked us. The stakes are a lot higher if failure is not an option. And of course, the world is currently tearing itself apart, so that won’t help when the moment for unity and collaboration approaches.
LadyAutumn@lemmy.blahaj.zone 1 day ago
This is correct. Current estimates place a possible impact event at an energy release of ~7.8 Megatons of TNT. Approximately 500 times the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Comparable to the Tunguska Event. This is accounting for current size estimates under 100m in diameter.
It is a very serious asteroid. The Tunguska Event could have killed millions of people. The primary reason it didn’t was because it happened in the middle of Siberia. The primary witnesses to the devastation were local native groups who still lived that for out, of which there were few. It wasn’t properly investigated for nearly 2 decades because of the remoteness of where it happened and the low priority as it didn’t affect very many people. If that happened over a major city the consequences would be utterly devastating.
It’s not K-T Extinction event level, but it is probably the most serious possible impactor since we started monitoring those.