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Probabilities - The mathematically determined chance that something will happen given a specific scenario.
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Possibilities - The set off all things with a >0% chance of happening given a specific scenario.
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Plausibility - The outcomes of a specific scenario, that when presented to a reasonable person, that person would determine that they are possible.
What are the differences between 1) probabillities, 2) possibillities, and 3) plausabillities?
Submitted 3 weeks ago by cheese_greater@lemmy.world to [deleted]
Comments
CrazyLikeGollum@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
whaleross@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Coin toss:
- Heads or tails are 50/50 probability.
- It is possible that the coin lands on its side.
- It is implausible that it splits in two.
loomy@lemy.lol 3 weeks ago
- likelihood
- is it impossible?
- can you imagine it happening, or not?
Libra@lemmy.ml 3 weeks ago
- Decent chance of happening.
- Is theoretically possible but unlikely.
- Could happen, but there’s no data on how likely it is.
salacious_coaster@infosec.pub 3 weeks ago
Possibility: it can technically happen Probability: statistically significant likelihood of happening Plausibility: a possibility that passes the laugh test
cheese_greater@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
passes the laugh test
Actually a great heuristic, thanks!
Stillwater@sh.itjust.works 3 weeks ago
Probabilities will likely happen.
Possibilities could happen if chances go right.
Plausibilities could, within reason, happen, but are not necessarily likely.cheese_greater@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Prob = > 50% Possibillities = > 0% Plausibillity <= 50%
Stillwater@sh.itjust.works 3 weeks ago
They’re not just different ranges of probability.
Probable = likely to happen
Possible = able to happen
Plausible = able or likely to happen according to reasonable inference
nimpnin@sopuli.xyz 3 weeks ago
Probability is a numeric value between: 0 and 1 of how likely an event is going to happen. Depending on the definition, I would say that possibilities and plausabilities are both events with a nonzero probability. Colloquially, possibilities are more likely than plausabilities I guess. Source: two thirds of a stats phd and C2 level english skills lol
cheese_greater@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
when people say its plausible tho, I feel like that means its a bit more likely or they entertain the chance of it happening or being correct more than a mere possibillity tho
jbrains@sh.itjust.works 3 weeks ago
Plausible is more like conceivable.
It’s possible that when I slam my hand on the table, it will go through the table, but it’s not plausible. We can’t imagine it actually happening, even though we know it can.
nimpnin@sopuli.xyz 3 weeks ago
maybe all the stats have eroded any intuition I had for these words
Successful_Try543@feddit.org 3 weeks ago
If you throw a coin, the result has two possibilities: It may show either the obverse side (head) or the reverse (tails). These possibilities have equal probability (“50:50”).
cheese_greater@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
How would you distinguish the 3 terms?
Blemgo@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Possibilities are all possible outcomes of a certain scenario. With the example of a coin toss, it’s heads or tails. However, these are dependent on your definition of what you want to observe. For example, at a dice roll, you could define the possibilities as:
- any number less than 5 is rolled
- a 5 is rolled
- a 6 is rolled
Probabilities are attached to possibilities. They define how likely an outcome is. For example, in an ideal coin toss heads and tails have a probabilitiy of 0.5 (or 50%) each.
With my 2nd example, the probabilities would be:
- any number less than 5 is rolled: 4/6 (or 2/3 or 0.666… or 66.666…%)
- a 5 is rolled (1/6 or 0.1666… or 16.666…%)
- a 6 is rolled (1/6 or 0.1666… or 16.666…%)
All probabilities must add up to 1.0 (or 100%), otherwise your possibilities overlap, which is generally not something you want.
Plausibility is a bit more tricky, as it also depends on your definition, namely a cutoff point. You could see the cutoff point as a limit of how much you want to risk. I’ll only examine the example for the coin toss for that. Say you will toss a coin 100 times. This would mean there are 2^100^ possibilities, but we will examine only 2 for this matter:
- you will get 100 times tails
- you will get as many tails as heads
Let’s say the cutoff point is 0.01, i.e. 1%. This would make the first possibility improbable, as 1/(2^100^) is far lower than 0.01. The second possibility is 0.5, which is greater than 0.01, and therefore probable.
TranquilTurbulence@lemmy.zip 3 weeks ago
A common dice has 6 possible outcomes. Unless it’s a special D6, it’s impossible to get a zero or some other value outside the usual range of 1-6.
Normally, each side has a probability of 1/6. If it’s a loaded dice, one value will have a higher probability, while the other sides will have a lower probability.
Let’s say you have two dice, you roll them, and hope to get 6 on both of them. It’s possible to get that on the first try, but it’s much more plausible that you have to roll them many times before that happens.
golli@sopuli.xyz 3 weeks ago
My understanding would be:
Probabilities: Chance of a certain outcome happening. E.g. Outcome A has a 70% chance B a 20% and C 10%
Possibilities: what outcome scenarios exist. E.g. there exist 3 (A B C).
Plausibility: looks at the degree of truth of a statement. So if it logically makes sense and is the correct answer/is what happened.
Toes@ani.social 3 weeks ago
There is also the extreme implausibility with a >1% probability that it will land on its edge but still more possible than 1000 heads in a row.