What are the differences between 1) probabillities, 2) possibillities, and 3) plausabillities?

⁨18⁩ ⁨likes⁩

Submitted ⁨⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago⁩ by ⁨cheese_greater@lemmy.world⁩ to ⁨[deleted]⁩

source

Comments

Sort:hotnew top

golli@sopuli.xyz ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago
My understanding would be:

Probabilities: Chance of a certain outcome happening. E.g. Outcome A has a 70% chance B a 20% and C 10%

Possibilities: what outcome scenarios exist. E.g. there exist 3 (A B C).

Plausibility: looks at the degree of truth of a statement. So if it logically makes sense and is the correct answer/is what happened.
source
- Toes@ani.social ⁨23⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago
  
  A coin toss has two possible outcomes (possibilities). Head and tails.
  
  There is also the extreme implausibility with a >1% probability that it will land on its edge but still more possible than 1000 heads in a row.
  
  source
CrazyLikeGollum@lemmy.world ⁨17⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago
Probabilities - The mathematically determined chance that something will happen given a specific scenario.

Possibilities - The set off all things with a >0% chance of happening given a specific scenario.

Plausibility - The outcomes of a specific scenario, that when presented to a reasonable person, that person would determine that they are possible.
source
whaleross@lemmy.world ⁨21⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago
Coin toss:

Heads or tails are 50/50 probability.

It is possible that the coin lands on its side.

It is implausible that it splits in two.
source
loomy@lemy.lol ⁨22⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago
likelihood

is it impossible?

can you imagine it happening, or not?
source
Libra@lemmy.ml ⁨20⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago
Decent chance of happening.

Is theoretically possible but unlikely.

Could happen, but there’s no data on how likely it is.
source
salacious_coaster@infosec.pub ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago
Possibility: it can technically happen Probability: statistically significant likelihood of happening Plausibility: a possibility that passes the laugh test

source
- cheese_greater@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago
  
  passes the laugh test
  
  Actually a great heuristic, thanks!
  
  source
Stillwater@sh.itjust.works ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago
Probabilities will likely happen.
Possibilities could happen if chances go right.
Plausibilities could, within reason, happen, but are not necessarily likely.

source
- cheese_greater@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago
  Prob = > 50% Possibillities = > 0% Plausibillity <= 50%
  
  source
  - Stillwater@sh.itjust.works ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago
    They’re not just different ranges of probability.
    
    Probable = likely to happen
    Possible = able to happen
    Plausible = able or likely to happen according to reasonable inference
    
    source
nimpnin@sopuli.xyz ⁨23⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago
Probability is a numeric value between: 0 and 1 of how likely an event is going to happen. Depending on the definition, I would say that possibilities and plausabilities are both events with a nonzero probability. Colloquially, possibilities are more likely than plausabilities I guess. Source: two thirds of a stats phd and C2 level english skills lol

source
- cheese_greater@lemmy.world ⁨23⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago
  when people say its plausible tho, I feel like that means its a bit more likely or they entertain the chance of it happening or being correct more than a mere possibillity tho
  
  source
  - jbrains@sh.itjust.works ⁨17⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago
    Plausible is more like conceivable.
    
    It’s possible that when I slam my hand on the table, it will go through the table, but it’s not plausible. We can’t imagine it actually happening, even though we know it can.
    
    source
  - nimpnin@sopuli.xyz ⁨22⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago
    maybe all the stats have eroded any intuition I had for these words
    
    source
Successful_Try543@feddit.org ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago
If you throw a coin, the result has two possibilities: It may show either the obverse side (head) or the reverse (tails). These possibilities have equal probability (“50:50”).

source
- cheese_greater@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago
  How would you distinguish the 3 terms?
  
  source
  - Blemgo@lemmy.world ⁨23⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago
    Possibilities are all possible outcomes of a certain scenario. With the example of a coin toss, it’s heads or tails. However, these are dependent on your definition of what you want to observe. For example, at a dice roll, you could define the possibilities as:
    
    any number less than 5 is rolled
    
    a 5 is rolled
    
    a 6 is rolled
    
    Probabilities are attached to possibilities. They define how likely an outcome is. For example, in an ideal coin toss heads and tails have a probabilitiy of 0.5 (or 50%) each.
    
    With my 2nd example, the probabilities would be:
    
    any number less than 5 is rolled: 4/6 (or 2/3 or 0.666… or 66.666…%)
    
    a 5 is rolled (1/6 or 0.1666… or 16.666…%)
    
    a 6 is rolled (1/6 or 0.1666… or 16.666…%)
    
    All probabilities must add up to 1.0 (or 100%), otherwise your possibilities overlap, which is generally not something you want.
    
    Plausibility is a bit more tricky, as it also depends on your definition, namely a cutoff point. You could see the cutoff point as a limit of how much you want to risk. I’ll only examine the example for the coin toss for that. Say you will toss a coin 100 times. This would mean there are 2^100^ possibilities, but we will examine only 2 for this matter:
    
    you will get 100 times tails
    
    you will get as many tails as heads
    
    Let’s say the cutoff point is 0.01, i.e. 1%. This would make the first possibility improbable, as 1/(2^100^) is far lower than 0.01. The second possibility is 0.5, which is greater than 0.01, and therefore probable.
    
    source
    -> View More Comments
  - TranquilTurbulence@lemmy.zip ⁨20⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago
    A common dice has 6 possible outcomes. Unless it’s a special D6, it’s impossible to get a zero or some other value outside the usual range of 1-6.
    
    Normally, each side has a probability of 1/6. If it’s a loaded dice, one value will have a higher probability, while the other sides will have a lower probability.
    
    Let’s say you have two dice, you roll them, and hope to get 6 on both of them. It’s possible to get that on the first try, but it’s much more plausible that you have to roll them many times before that happens.
    
    source