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UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

We’re still only 3 days into this war.

The second big Iran-Israel conflict in less than a year.

And yet this is already manifesting right now in real life as we debate it on the internet.

Ah yes. A total nosedive of 0.30%.

This is the Uno-Reverse “Why you complaining when the DOW is over 50,000!” line. Any token sell-off gets reported on like it’s Black Friday.

Because Trump does not have control over the interest rates.

He’s lining up his pick to replace Powell as we speak.

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theunknownmuncher@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
I’ll come back to this in 4 weeks. See you then 😉

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- UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  You gotta at least give yourself a full Friedman Unit.
  
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  - marcos@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
    I wouldn’t take any kind of advice from Friedman…
    
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theunknownmuncher@lemmy.world ⁨5⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
Well, it’s been 4 weeks, so I’m back! Here’s the S&P 500 over the last month, with no end to the Iran war in sight.

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- UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world ⁨5⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  Fair enough. Hope you made some money on the plunge. I would not have guessed an 8% drop, given the weirdly stubborn endless equities enthusiasm, but here we are.
  
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  - theunknownmuncher@lemmy.world ⁨5⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    Yeah 8% over 1 month is pretty huge. Not suggesting this will actually happen, but if the current trend continues at the same rate, it will be a 62% loss over a year.
    
    A short period of time before the Iran war started, I pulled all my money out of the market and am 100% in CDs now. I didn’t time the top perfectly, but that’s never really my goal anyway, and I’m definitely beating the market right now with modest returns.
    
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    UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world ⁨5⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    
    Not suggesting this will actually happen, but if the current trend continues at the same rate
    
    It never does. Markets move periodically - early slow change, mid-point rapid change, tail slow change - for the most part. Nevermind that a 62% sell-off raises the question of “Who is selling?” versus “Who is buying?” Dollars are still far too cheap for a plunge that steep.
    
    A short period of time before the Iran war started, I pulled all my money out of the market and am 100% in CDs now.
    
    CD rates are shit right now, thanks to low interest rates.
    
    You’d be better off in utilities or REITs. US energy companies have done very well in the wake of the Hormuz straight closure. I dropped a bunch into United Healthcare recently, thanks to their bargain basement price. Doubt it’ll pay off soon. But I see a healthy upside long term.
    
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