Comment on Why are the Populist Right Surging in Australia?
Zagorath@aussie.zone 1 week ago
Haven’t had the chance to watch it yet, but from the title my answer would be…they aren’t. The Coalition is collapsing, and One Nation is benefitting from that. But the right/left vote is not shifting that much.
But the right/left vote is not shifting that much.
I haven’t looked deep into it, but the polling for two-party preferred vote (which should approximate left-right) has been shifting. The Wikipedia summary chart of ALP:LNP has pretty consistently shifted from around 58 : 42 last June, to around 53 : 47 - a large shift. If we naively extrapolate the trend, the two-party preferred vote would be tied in around three or four months.
Yeah, maybe. But there are a few issues. One is that some regression to the mean is just expected. The last election was an exceedingly good result for Labor.
Another is that there are issues with the data because of the irrationality of One Nation voters. Rationally, we would expect nearly every One Nation vote to flow back to the LNP, but evidence suggests it is actually much more evenly mixed.
There’s also the fact that One Nation’s vote is not nearly as evenly spread as the Coalition and Labor’s votes are. Total percentage may be high, but it’s very unlikely to translate into an equivalent number of seats.
I think there could be that is noticeable in some circles and environment. Dismissing it its a non issue allows this to grow. Is there a growth? given the amount of groups popping up and being blatant about it, i would argue yes, And TBH i have seen it at grassroot level, most people dismiss it, some call it out, and…some listen.
Aus pretends it does not have a racism problem, but it does, the superiority complex and everyone’s keenness to make $ overrides the surface camaraderie and generosity of the Aussies…unfortunately
The divide is also fuelled by a gov after gov of not dealing with social problems. There are opportunities in Aus but it still favours the rich and the old too much. Land of the landlords and the worship of coal is enough to disillusion many. I know this will sound like whataboutism but the truth is people will jump on these things as an excuse and use to draw others in.
Eyekaytee@aussie.zone 1 week ago
my understanding is that both labour and liberal are leaving for ON:
theconversation.com/one-nation-surges-above-coali…
I think part of it is just utter bewilderment that we had 10 years of liberal party rule and in two terms they’ve imploded so hard one nation ffs is taking votes left and right
The scariest prospect is that if Labor/Albo continue to skirt around certain issues we may have our own version of the UK’s reform battling for serious numbers at the next few elections :|
Cherry@piefed.social 1 week ago
I often wonder if Albo did well because of how he captained, because people wanted change or that scomo and the the liberals were just so bad. Either way the average man has gotton much of the same, higher costs and less ability to have a steady future. I appreciate that he made an effort with recognising first nations it is a issue that needs to be tackled but its probs behind 10 other bigger issues.
Until the pollies stand up to coal, houseprices, china…or the money its only gonna get worse, and really, Aus has seen this happen all over the western world and had a good 5 year hindsight.I feel like there is time to turn it around for Aus but there does not seem a politician likely to step up, serve the people and give the tough talks that most need to hear.
‘She’ll be alright’ has changed from a positive call to an excuse to ignore problems and refute progress.