I think Switch 2 is more likely.

I obviously don’t know their financials, but I am going to assume a month or two isn’t going to change things all that much.

So they can either launch for Switch 1 (and everything else) and be “just another game”. Or they can launch for Switch 2 (and everything else) and be the ONLY game. Plenty of “nindie” games did exactly that during the, quite frankly disastrous, first year or so of the Switch 1 and it was amazing for their studios.

Launching as part of the XBOX Boy or whatever MS calls their handheld is also an option. But MS is almost definitely going to take advantage of the albatross that was the Series S to have significant cross compatibility.