Submitted 2 years ago by iamtanmay@wolfballs.com to freeforum@wolfballs.com
https://youtu.be/0W6FXaSjXmg?t=5788
Robert Barnes has generally been ahead of the curve himself, sometimes by months, especially legally/politically.
Martenson, was a guest on Jan 6, and is a self proclaimed ahead of the curve "future predictor". Well, this prediction came true:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/farms-are-failing-as-fertilizer-prices-drive-up-cost-of-food-11642770182
One good outcome seems to be that some developing farmers are trying some new tricks:
"farmers in his area have resorted to using monosodium glutamate, or MSG, a flavor enhancer that contains high levels of nitrogen and is used in local dishes. He and others are also trying organic methods, like spreading ash and plant debris"
I think all asians prob learn in middle school - nitrobacter - nitrogen fixing bacteria, are naturally present in legumes like beans. Planting them in a fallow season, enriches the soil naturally with nitrogen.
Synthetic Ammonia started the Green revolutions across the world, and why we have global food surplus today. Specifically the Haber process of cheaply producing large quantities. Before that, people relied on collecting bird droppings (guano) to get Ammonia for fertilizer.
My pet theory was that the lack of Ammonia was an important reason for WWII. Germans invaded neighboring countries and shipped their food back, indicating their agriculture was suffering. Germany had no natural supply of Nitrates, and had exhausted its synthetic supply during WWI for bombs. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process#History)
On the same principle, after WWII, the US exported Ammonia around the world to prevent future wars by increasing agriculture production.
I hope that we are not going to slide back to those times........
A long time ago I did a study for my own information about the idea of "going green". I looked at 3 key industries that would have to be converted to a carbon neutral process: Ammonia, cement, and steel production.
Ammonia would have to be converted to a process that uses electrolysis to separate oxygen and hydrogen from water. My prediction at the time (around 2008) is that it would take about 30% of ALL hydroelectric, nuclear, and other renewable electricity sources on the planet at the time just to move over this one industry. Alternatively, we use 2% of natural gas production.
It really helped me understand the scope of the problem and that anyone selling solutions to us as "easy" are lying.
First of all, I am not a Climate activist. I think temperature trend is fine, and the hysteria is over the top.
Regarding Cement and steel.... right now we just throw construction waste in landfills. Its cheaper to buy new material than hire people to sort and recycle. Steel scrap does get recycled, but steel and cement in construction waste goes en masse to landfill. Same with lumber
If we charged the environmental cost of landfills to people demolishing stuff, it would be more economical to upgrade old buildings or recycle construction materials.
If we turned off construction steel and cement factories TODAY, we still have a giant surplus of abandoned buildings that could be recycled. Steel and cement can be recycled endlessly.
We waste a lot because we are very efficient at digging stuff from the ground and making it new.
Ammonia is similar. Considering obesity ~40% and food waste ~40%, we would actually need ~50% less Ammonia if we didn't overeat and waste food.
Then there is the whole argument of eat meat or not. If you compromise and have non-ammonia meat, i.e. no animal feed only grazing, then meat would be much more expensive, but no more Ammonia powered GMO feed would be needed.
Also, turning off gas cars is dumb. Its more effective to use old vehicles instead of new electric shit.
Without switching to more renewables, we can already decarbonize a huge amount. I personally think its counterproductive. But if you seriously wanted to do it, that would be the roadmap.
sj_zero@lotide.fbxl.net 2 years ago
Prices will go up if we're lucky.
If we aren't lucky there just won't be food.
I grabbed a significant supply of non-perishable food late last year because I predicted a cold winter.
It's been bad, but not cataclysmically -- yet. Price controls will probably be the straw that breaks the camel's back. Without bravery from people in charge, they're coming.
iamtanmay@wolfballs.com 2 years ago
Fuck, I haven't had to worried about this kind of madness in decades. If 2022 and 23's harvests fail, you will see the result with a 6 months lag to supermarkets, not immediately. Futures prices should also predict in advance when this happens.
The ones to starve first will be the poor people in Africa/SA/Asia, who can't afford to suddenly pay 4-10x for food. There will be a pretty big famine if the supply doesn't come back.
I bought around 50 kilos of potatoes from a farmer recently just coincidentally. I don't expect things will get so bad in Europe, but I was about to buy rice for long term storage also.
sj_zero@lotide.fbxl.net 2 years ago
This is one of the things that blows me away: The people who are driving this claim to be champions of the poor, but everything almost seems calibrated specifically to harm the poor.