A Polling Risk for Trump | His advantage may not be as stable as it looks.

Comments

• givesomefucks@lemmy.world ⁨5⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  This article is wild…

  Importantly, these low-turnout voters are often from Democratic constituencies. Many back Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate. But in our polling, Biden wins just three-quarters of Democratic-leaning voters who didn’t vote in the last cycle, even as almost all high-turnout Democratic-leaners continue to support him.

  He’s trying to spin Dem voters not wanting to vote for Biden, as a good thing for Biden…

  And for “regular voters” he ignores literally any election besides 2020…

  So if someone voted for Trump in 2016 when trump won, but not 2020 when Trump lost, this guy says we can ignore them in 2024?

  Also

  One important factor might be media consumption. While Biden holds nearly all of his support from voters who consume traditional mainstream media — national newspapers, television networks and the like — the disengaged are far likelier to report getting their news from social media. Biden defectors are concentrated in this group. (A TikTok analysis found nearly twice as many pro-Trump posts on the platform as pro-Biden ones since November.)

  Correlation isn’t causation.

  Biden’s best demographic is boomers, and he doesn’t even get all of them. So of course his supporters watch cable news still and believe what they say. Earlier the article even mentioned they were more likely to say the economy is good or even excellent.

  Biden’s biggest supporters are cable news addicted boomers completely disengaged from reality.

  Author even thinks low turnout would help a Dem, despite that not happening in…

  So long I don’t even know if cars were invented yet.

  Low-turnout voters also pose a challenge for pollsters. While millions of them will undoubtedly turn out this November, no one knows just how many of them will ultimately show up — let alone exactly which ones will do so. This is always a challenge for pollsters. But in this cycle, if enough of them stay home, Biden could do much better on Election Day than it appears in the polls.

  Low turnout is how republicans win, because most people disagree with Republicans.

  The last is less obvious, but it’s really getting frustrating the media isn’t talking about it.

  With that history in mind, Democrats can hope that November’s election will draw a disproportionately anti-Trump group of irregular voters to the polls. There were signs of this yet again in The Times’s recent battleground polls.

  We can’t just keep counting on anti trump votes.

  For an 18 year old voting in their first election, they might not even remember a Republican presidential candidate that was trump, he’s been the candidate 3 elections in a row.

  It was one thing when he first popped up, but not enough.

  Getting him out of office was/is the outlier.

  It’s insane to think we’re going to get the same level of turnout as when he was actively the president.

  But like I said, that whole article is crazy, the author is just grabbing random data, and then filling in the blanks till they get the conclusion they want and ignoring literally everything. And when these people do this shit, when they’re wrong idiots take away from it “don’t trust polls” when it’s the shit analysis that’s the problem, not the data

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  • snooggums@midwest.social ⁨5⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    Biden’s biggest supporters are cable news addicted boomers completely disengaged from reality.

    Trump’s biggest supporters are MAGA idiots who only watch stuff like Fox News, Newsmax, and other Russian disinformation outlets. At least the Biden supporters are getting a filtered version of reality and not complete fiction.

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