Yeah if you’re going only on the seats that have been officially called so far on the ABC, it looks premature. Labor + Greens have more seats than LNP. But dig in more and the likely winners of spots not yet called, and it paints a very different picture. Heaps more LNP is likely, and it’s just a question of which ones get in.
Comment on Labor concedes Tasmanian election, leaving Liberals to negotiate with new crossbench
MHLoppy@fedia.io 3 months ago[Based on ABC's calls] They would've needed the support of every other non-Coalition member to successfully form a minority government, which they might have considered untenable.
Zagorath@aussie.zone 3 months ago
MHLoppy@fedia.io 3 months ago
Following up (more generally than at your reply specifically), our lord and saviour Antony Green has the following counts/predictions:
- Liberal: 13, possibly up to 15 (with 14-15 sounding more likely than 13 based on other coverage)
- Labor: 10, with an unlikely 11
- Greens: 4, with a good chance of 5
- JLN: 2, with an unlikely 3
- IND: 2
Additionally, Labor apparently said (quoting ABC news coverage) they were unwilling to form government with Greens, so rip.
Zagorath@aussie.zone 3 months ago
Labor apparently said (quoting ABC news coverage) they were unwilling to form government with Greens
lol bs. They can afford to say that because they know it’s not feasible. 100% if Labor + Greens had a combined majority, but Labor alone did not, they’d do it.
But honestly I fucking hate that Labor pulls this shit. We need to embrace coalitions (lower case c!!), not play into the LNP’s anti-democratic bullshit.
TassieTosser@aussie.zone 3 months ago
It’s been a thing since the disastrous Labor-Greens minority govt in 2010. The Greens held up Labor’s legislative agenda to get concessions around environmental issues. The end result was the utter bollocking by the Liberals in 2014. Suggesting Labor work with the Greens in Tas has been poison since.
AllNewTypeFace@leminal.space 3 months ago
Who are the independents? Are we talking teals or cookers?
TassieTosser@aussie.zone 3 months ago
Krisite Johnson, closer to the Greens, and David O’Byrne, ex-Labor leader who got done in by sexual harassment allegations.
dillekant@slrpnk.net 3 months ago
To maybe make my point clear: The Greens didn’t “concede”, and neither did JLN. Labor appears to be stating (although the auto-summary below seems to throw some grey area in here) that they’re just not interested in a minority government, and I just don’t think that’s what the voters wanted them to do here.