I am a big fan of Timberborn, but if we go all pedantic about it, Timberborn’s flood mechanics aren’t all that realistic.

A game that came somewhat close to realistic flood mechanics was Pharaoh/Cleopatra (1999/2000). Even though it used an abstract/statistical model (due to the technical limitations of the time), it felt a lot closer to reality than Timberborn even if there were some gamey elements like how well you respected Osiris.