Fun thought experiment: have you ever met anyone who has replied to opinion polls?

I asked my dear 80 year old mother that a while ago, she hadn’t. I haven’t.

They are generally conducted by phone, cold calling landlines, or by someone going door to door with a clipboard.

Many unofficial (but still very influencial, including gov.uk) polls are online, and users have to complete hundreds of them to get a nominal payment, £5 I believe.

Now imagine the sort of person who answers their ringing landline/ door and says ‘why yes, stranger, yes I do have 10 minutes to discuss my voting intentions’, and you have the entire ‘over 40 years old’ demographic represented in these results.

Imagine someone who has actively sought out survey websites and sits though at least 100, over 6 months or so, for a tiny amount of pocket money - or even weirder, someone who just decided to do it anyway - and you have the entire ‘under 40 years old’ demographic in these results.

And now, thinking of those door-answerers and survey-clickers, imagine how colourful and exciting their lives must be, and then ask yourself what possible incentive they have to tell the truth when absolutely nobody will ever know if they liven up the tedium slightly by claiming to be a 45 year old self made millionaire with 12 lovely children all planning to vote Jedi in the next election.

And that is why opinion polls always come out way, way more fringe than the reality ever is. Because normal people do not answer them unless they have a strong opinion or an incentive, and those with an incentive generally have no incentive to be honest.

(For reference, I’m not dunking on people who have done these things. I spent about a year answering yougov surveys until it dawned on me that it worked out at less than 5p an hour. If you’re bored or just want to contribute to the national knowledge pool, awesome, but you probably already know you’re not exactly an average voter)