Comment on Jigsaw Trolley Problem
hodgepodgin@lemmy.zip 2 months ago
C3.
Thanks for the explanation, but I cannot follow on this line
Since he knows that Bernard doesn’t know given just the row, each ball in that row is in a column that contains more than one ball.
Why is that? Why couldn’t it be A2 or A3? In this case neither Albert nor Bertrand could tell what row/column this was either, because it would be in a row/column with another ball. How can you exclude any row with overlap with any single-ball columns?
It couldn’t be row A or B because there would then be a possibility the ball was in A6 or B5 and that Bernard actually did know where the ball was. Albert says he knows Bernard doesn’t know where the ball is, which means he is 100% confident, and the only rows that allow for that confidence are rows C and D, because each ball in each row is not alone in its column.
Oh of course, I didn’t consider the “I know you don’t either” part. Thanks, I got it now :)
woodenghost@hexbear.net 2 months ago
Yes and because C3 is a golden ball, you should confidently switch to the second door. Because now it’s just the Monty Hall problem with balls instead of goats. When the madman chose a door to opened, he deliberately chose a bad (mixed) door, otherwise he would have given away the correct location. The fact, that he opened the third instead of the second gives you new information, that you can take advantage of by switching, increasing your chances. Had the ball been silver, it might have been revealed to come from a bad door.
hodgepodgin@lemmy.zip 2 months ago
I have no idea what the ball thing is about. I just assumed that since he was a madman, he was just doing madman things.