Authors:
Elisabetta Canteri Postdoctoral Researcher, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen Damien Fordham Associate Professor of Global Change Ecology, University of Adelaide
Excerpt:
Caribou will likely face population declines rarely experienced in 21,000 years due to climate change. That’s the main finding from our recently published research on the historical resilience of caribou populations.
Caribou, also called reindeer, are a majestic species with remarkable adaptations to the cold Arctic environments of Eurasia and North America. Despite surviving through large climatic fluctuations in the past, future climate warming may cause a drastic decline in caribou populations. Arctic environments are extremely sensitive to climate change, and they are expected to warm two times more than the global average.
In our research, we simulated how caribou population abundance shifted in response to climate change since the last ice age to the present day, and projected it into the future to 2100. This allowed us to directly compare past and future rates of declines.
We decided to look back 21,000 years because, in the past, Arctic climates have fluctuated abruptly, with temperatures in areas such as Greenland increasing by up to 10 degrees in just a few decades. We figured that if we could identify the traits that helped caribou to survive these past warming events, we would be able to better predict their vulnerability to future climate change.
To do this we combined fossils and historical observations with climate reconstructions to map caribou habitat suitability across regions and time at a high resolution. We then used computer modelling to simulate how populations responded to changes in the suitability of these environments following the last ice age.