Saw 2 notes about this:
theguardian.com/…/australia-election-2025-live-an…
A deeper dive into the YouGov MRP
We reported earlier on bombshell results from the final YouGov MRP model, which suggests Labor will govern with an increased seat count and the Liberals are headed for their worst result in 80 years. All the sitting independents are projected to keep their seats
MRP models work by taking large surveys - almost 36k in this instance - and, using the last census, translate these estimates to an electorate level. But there is uncertainty in these numbers, which are also the median results from thousands of simulations.
Dr Luke Mansillo, a political scientist from the University of Sydney, tells the Guardian he thinks the YouGov model is overestimating Labor’s share, and there’s still about a 25% chance of a hung parliament. This is based on his work on Guardian Australia’s poll tracker, which includes estimating the ‘house effects’ that systematically skew polls either towards Labor or the Coalition.
The increasing vote share for independents and minor parties have made many seats that would have been fought between Labor and Coalition into “three-cornered contests”.
The YouGov MRP projects that Labor will pick up the seat of Brisbane, for instance, which the Greens won off the Coalition at the last election. Labor is projected to have the biggest share of the primary vote, but the Coalition and the Greens are in a tight contest for second place - which will likely determine the winner.
“It’s all based on your assumptions about preferences” says Mansillo. In the last election Labor were eliminated in the penultimate round of counting in Brisbane, and 83% of Labor voter preferences went to the Greens’ candidate. With so many seats likely coming down to the final three, an unexpected result here or there could have a big impact.
The YouGov MRP projects that Labor will pick up more seats despite a lower primary vote than they received in the last election. Mansillo notes that this is true of the Coalition too, and so the preferences that flow back to the major parties will be vital.
and Albos thoughts on it:
Albanese has phoned in for a quick interview with Hamish McDonald on ABC radio Sydney.
He’s asked about the latest YouGov poll, which showed Labor would win 84 seats – a clear majority – if an election was held today.
I have no expectations. After 2019 (election loss), where people got a shock on the night, it’s really important to not get ahead of ourselves on the basis of polling that just essentially answer what people think at a particular point in time.
We’re working really hard. No prime minister has been re-elected since 2004 when John Howard got re-elected.
I know we’ve got a mountain to climb.
Zagorath@aussie.zone 5 days ago
Labor to gain Brisbane off the Greens (prior to Greens it was LNP), but Greens to retain Griffith (Labor prior to 2022) and Ryan (LNP prior to '22), according to this.
Based on this, Dutton likely to retain Dickson, unlike some had hoped.
Note that MRP polls capture broad trends much better than traditional polling, but still fail to capture strong individual ground games. That’s particularly important for independents, and still quite important for minor parties like the Greens.