the gambler’s fallacy is the opposite of what applies to #1

“is the belief that, if an event (whose occurrences are independent and identically distributed) has occurred less frequently than expected, it is more likely to happen again in the future (or vice versa).” -per wikipedia

#2 is an optimist? A glass half full type of guy

#3 i’d guess is inferring that the statistics are based on an even distribution where the failures are disproportionately made up of by the same select few surgeons. or maybe that’s #2 and the scientist actually know the theory of how the procedure works in addition to what #2 knows.