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That’s a wild analysis about her lying constantly. It’s so bizarre that someone would hear trumps endless spew of nonsense and then say that about Harris.

Sorry to have to mention reality, but that is not what Silver is saying currently:

…fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

Harris wins 61 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Trump wins 39 times out of 100.

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wintermute_oregon@lemm.ee ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
Just noticed you cited 538 when I was citing Nate Silver. 538 has nothing to do with Nate Silver. He left some time ago and has called out the bad changes to their model.

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wintermute_oregon@lemm.ee ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
It’s weird that I mentioned Kamala and that you kick in talking about Trump. Are you unable to talk about Kamala?

news.yahoo.com/…/nate-silver-slammed-over-trump-1…

No, that is what he has been saying.

Last week, for instance, his forecast gave Trump a 64% chance of winning the Electoral College while giving Vice President Kamala Harris just a 35% chance of victory, even while the same forecast saw Harris as more likely to win the popular vote and his polling averages had her leading in enough swing states to take the election.

You article is from today, so I will have to read that.

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- Zeppo@sh.itjust.works ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  We can discuss Harris, sure. However, the topic was a debate - so yes, the idea is comparing the two. Trump was slovenly, unhinged and incoherent, but you somehow didn’t notice and claim that Harris did a bad job? Your interpretation is so distorted that I’m not sure it’s worth addressing.
  
  okay, so Silver is working for Peter Theil now. Good to know.
  
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  - wintermute_oregon@lemm.ee ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
    It is weird how you think it was comparing the two when talking about Harris. It is the TDS the left has. It is weird as hell.
    
    Who cares who Nate works for? He explains his work, it’s detailed and has been very accurate. He has also said he is going to vote for Harris, as everyone should.
    
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    Zeppo@sh.itjust.works ⁨2⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
    Yeah bro, TDS, the left!
    
    We were comparing their debate performances as far as I can read it, so pretty sure that’s not “TDS” (which is an absurd term, and fuck Charles Krauthammer for introducing that to the lexicon - about Bush, of course).
    
    I don’t really trust anyone once Theil is involved. Maybe that’s just my Theil Derangement Syndrome, since of course criticizing conservatives always means mental illness.
    
    There are other experts who have analyses too, of course. You might check out this one:
    fortune.com/…/trump-vs-harris-election-odds-who-w…
    
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