Comment on Does The US President have a better chance to win a second term with or without Kamala Harris?

number6@feddit.nl ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

Biden can’t win the election without Harris.

Keep in mind that U.S. elections are not popular elections. You have to look at key swing states. Technically, none of the other 43~ states matter much because their outcomes are already statistically pre-determined. It doesn’t matter how much people like Biden in California or New York, if he loses key states. For instance, Hillary Clinton had twice as many popular votes in California as Trump in 2016. But those extra 4 million extra votes didn’t matter to the outcome because California is just one State.

For example, Michigan is a key electoral state. It is predominantly a red state. But Barak Obama won it two elections in a row because minorities from the densely populated areas, especially Wayne county, turned out for him. Those same minorities did not turn out when Hillary Clinton ran in 2016. They came back … just barely … when Biden ran with Harris as VP. This same story is repeated in Georgia and Wisconsin – both swing states that usually lean heavily Red.

So, to sum up. It doesn’t matter how much people in red states hate on Harris. Their election results have already been factored. What matters is how she is perceived in key swing states. While some red state voters won’t vote for Biden because they fear he might keel over, other swing state voters will … for exactly the same reason!

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