Right now, no one knows your chosen third-party candidate exists. Let’s suppose you, personally, set out to change that. Let’s suppose you’re the best campaign manager ever, and that you and your friends lead the best grassroots campaign in history, so much so that come November you’ve convinced everyone who would have voted third party and two-thirds of the people who would have voted for Biden to vote for your candidate instead.
Let’s suppose that, had you done nothing, the vote breakdown will be the same in 2024 as it was in 2020. Biden got 51.3% of the popular vote, Trump got 46.8%, and that leaves just under 2% who voted third party. In 2024, thanks to your heroic efforts, the green party candidate gets 36.2% of the vote and Biden gets 17.1%, but oh no – Trump wins by a landslide because Trump supporters, who care not for your left-of-center politics, stuck by their guy and gave him 46% of the vote again, and in first-past-the-post voting, that’s all that matters! Your heroic efforts to get your message out about your better candidate only resulted in splitting the vote and ensuring Trump would win!
In 2024, thanks to your heroic efforts, the green party candidate gets 36.2% of the vote and Biden gets 17.1%, but oh no – Trump wins by a landslide because Trump supporters, who care not for your left-of-center politics, stuck by their guy and gave him 46% of the vote again, and in first-past-the-post voting, that’s all that matters! Your heroic efforts to get your message out about your better candidate only resulted in splitting the vote and ensuring Trump would win!
This would be the greatest accomplishment for the working class in American history if it happened. The Greens would then start to win congressional seats, and being the process of taking over the government just like the Morena party just did in Mexico.
It’s also completely impossible. A campaign that could convince two thirds of Biden voters to switch would shatter every record for a grassroots campaign (heck, even a corporate backed campaign) that had ever been set. You are not going to convince a statistically significant number of people to switch their vote, especially not between now and November.
I also feel like you’re missing the part where even if you DID accomplish that, Trump would still win the presidency! If you vote third party you might as well not vote!
goldenlocks@lemmy.world 2 months ago
I think the Green party is better, that’s why I vote for it. Google “democracy” and find out why!
AVincentInSpace@pawb.social 2 months ago
Let me put it this way.
Right now, no one knows your chosen third-party candidate exists. Let’s suppose you, personally, set out to change that. Let’s suppose you’re the best campaign manager ever, and that you and your friends lead the best grassroots campaign in history, so much so that come November you’ve convinced everyone who would have voted third party and two-thirds of the people who would have voted for Biden to vote for your candidate instead.
Let’s suppose that, had you done nothing, the vote breakdown will be the same in 2024 as it was in 2020. Biden got 51.3% of the popular vote, Trump got 46.8%, and that leaves just under 2% who voted third party. In 2024, thanks to your heroic efforts, the green party candidate gets 36.2% of the vote and Biden gets 17.1%, but oh no – Trump wins by a landslide because Trump supporters, who care not for your left-of-center politics, stuck by their guy and gave him 46% of the vote again, and in first-past-the-post voting, that’s all that matters! Your heroic efforts to get your message out about your better candidate only resulted in splitting the vote and ensuring Trump would win!
goldenlocks@lemmy.world 2 months ago
This would be the greatest accomplishment for the working class in American history if it happened. The Greens would then start to win congressional seats, and being the process of taking over the government just like the Morena party just did in Mexico.
AVincentInSpace@pawb.social 2 months ago
It’s also completely impossible. A campaign that could convince two thirds of Biden voters to switch would shatter every record for a grassroots campaign (heck, even a corporate backed campaign) that had ever been set. You are not going to convince a statistically significant number of people to switch their vote, especially not between now and November.
I also feel like you’re missing the part where even if you DID accomplish that, Trump would still win the presidency! If you vote third party you might as well not vote!