Who knows what's going on. Every hour there is an update: this lost, that retaken. Too much noise. Probably in 10-15 days, things will settle down. Russia is too big for UA to defeat directly, unless every UA tank takes out five Russian ones. 2600 UA tanks to 14000 Russian ones.

UA did well in first 3 days, but their air cover is gone. By the end of the week, remaining armor will get picked off from air. Then squishy infantry is left. Russian armor and air power will be untouchable, unless they drive into cities and get MANPADed. Russia lost several aircraft to MANPADs when they flew them low under RADAR to take airbases. Doubtful they will repeat that once UA AA is gone. Then they will drop bombs without fear.

Then limiting factor would be $ and political costs. Air sorties are expensive, so Russia will sacrifice men to capture cities, combined with indiscriminate shelling. But that will cost Putin politically. Seeing how INCREDIBLY shitty Russian logistics are, they will run out of ammo, fuel, food, make mistakes, tons of sabotage to supply lines. This war will go on forever if UA President doesn't surrender. Putin might get overthrown if he it goes on too long.

Its Russia's war to lose, and make a giant fool of itself in the process.