Comment on Russian APC/IFV/Tank runs out of gas on road to Kiev, Ukranian driver stops to laugh at them
goldenballs@wolfballs.com 3 years ago
Well, Ukraine can probably hold Russia to a 1-1 draw at home, but they will lose more territory if populations polarise in each direction and West Ukraine goes to EU.
iamtanmay@wolfballs.com 3 years ago
Hard to say. Nothing like a common enemy to unite the nation as 9/11 showed. I don't know what life is like for East UA, and how they feel about Russia.
On paper Russia should steamroll with 10x of everything. But they are 10x inefficient compared to Western armies. Soldiers ran out of food/fuel 3 days into a war planned for months. Lost drivers asking locals for directions. Reports from 2010 say conscripts were fed expired and dog food.
UA soldiers still fighting are the loyalists who didn't desert. Strong local support, home advantage and desperation. Sun Tzu would bet on them.
Its Russia's war to lose.
goldenballs@wolfballs.com 3 years ago
I think last week is suggested Kharkhov and Mariupol were vulnerable to Russia. I thought a local rebel insurrection would be the technique. I don't see how Russia can realistically take and hold any more territory. Even getting up to the Dneiper is hard to achieve. Russia seems to be learning a lesson that China wants to avoid, with a failed attempt at grabbing Taiwan, and prompting Kim Wrong Un to make this worse with his almost literal loose cannon fingertips.
iamtanmay@wolfballs.com 3 years ago
Who knows what's going on. Every hour there is an update: this lost, that retaken. Too much noise. Probably in 10-15 days, things will settle down. Russia is too big for UA to defeat directly, unless every UA tank takes out five Russian ones. 2600 UA tanks to 14000 Russian ones.
UA did well in first 3 days, but their air cover is gone. By the end of the week, remaining armor will get picked off from air. Then squishy infantry is left. Russian armor and air power will be untouchable, unless they drive into cities and get MANPADed. Russia lost several aircraft to MANPADs when they flew them low under RADAR to take airbases. Doubtful they will repeat that once UA AA is gone. Then they will drop bombs without fear.
Then limiting factor would be $ and political costs. Air sorties are expensive, so Russia will sacrifice men to capture cities, combined with indiscriminate shelling. But that will cost Putin politically. Seeing how INCREDIBLY shitty Russian logistics are, they will run out of ammo, fuel, food, make mistakes, tons of sabotage to supply lines. This war will go on forever if UA President doesn't surrender. Putin might get overthrown if he it goes on too long.
Its Russia's war to lose, and make a giant fool of itself in the process.
goldenballs@wolfballs.com 3 years ago
Just looking at geography and road links, the Western Ukraine uplands seem a literal uphill struggle for Russia, especially if Ukraine is consistently supplied from Poland and Romania. A stalemate seems likely. The areas of contention are around the Dneiper cities like Kiev and Dnepropetrovsk, and then the coast between Odessa and Kherson. Strategically, Russia would be wiser to retreat to eastern hills above the Dneiper to consolidate, and focus on the south coast. Guard supply lines all the way to Mikolaev and Odessa.