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Comment on What are the most mindblowing fact in mathematics?

I find the easiest way to understand Monty Hall is to think of it in a meta way: Situation A - A person picks one of three doors, 1 n 3 chance of success. Situation B - A person picks one of two doors, 1 in 2 chance of success. If you were an observer of these two situations (not the person choosing doors) and you were gonna bet on which situation will more often succeed, clearly the second choice.

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zenharbinger@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago
But the issue is that by switching doors, you have a 66% chance of winning, it doesn’t drop to 50% just because there are 2 doors, it’s still 33% on the first door, 66% on the other doors (as a whole), for which we know one is not correct and won’t choose.

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- _g_be@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago
  
  on the whole
  
  is the key words here
  
  individually the door has that 1:2 chance, but the scenario has more context and information and thus different odds. Choosing scenario B over scenario A is a better wager
  
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  - zenharbinger@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago
    you aren’t talking about the Monty Hall problem then
    
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KarmaTrainCaboose@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago
I don’t understand how this relates to the problem. Yes 50 percent is greater than 33 percent, but that’s not what the Monty hall problem is about. The point of the exercise is to show that when the game show host knowingly (and it is important to state that the host knows where the prize is) opens a door, he is giving the contestant 33 percent extra odds.

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