Comment on Billions lost to Brexit could make NHS waiting lists disappear, top economist says

• Natanael@infosec.pub ⁨1⁩ ⁨month⁩ ago

  And suffocating your exports as a part of it. Your leadership is obsessed with natural gas, pretending it’s cheaper than renewables (blatantly false). Your national security laws are unhinged enough to threaten export of IT related services due to the jurisdiction.

  www.bbc.com/news/articles/cyv0m164m84o

  The numbers range from about 3% to 8%. “The fact that it is harder to trade with the EU is about half the hit, in line with previous forecasts,” says lead author of the NBER research, Nick Bloom.

  He attributes the rest to the consequences of what at times felt like near-nightly political meltdown during the Brexit negotiations. "The other half is the uncertainty from the fact the Brexit process itself was such an enormous mess… We can never get that second 4% back

  www.nber.org/papers/w34459

  We estimate that investment was reduced by 12% to 13%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%. These negative impacts reflect a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources from a protracted Brexit process

  …org.uk/…/The-Economic-Impact-of-Brexit.pdf

  Considering all of the evidence, the consensus view – that Brexit’s economic impact would be negative and large – has been borne out. The 2019-2024 parliament raised taxes by around £100 billion, and if we take the OBR’s 4 per cent loss of productivity to be the true figure, £40 billion of those tax rises were needed because of EU withdrawal.

  warwick.ac.uk/…/new_research_maps_the_regional_co…

  source

  • deHaga@feddit.uk ⁨1⁩ ⁨month⁩ ago

    Using a synthetic control approach, the researchers compare each UK area’s actual economic path with a data-driven counterfactual: how that area might have evolved had Brexit not happened.

    Synthetic counter factuals. Bullshit

    source

    • Natanael@infosec.pub ⁨1⁩ ⁨month⁩ ago

      Comparing growth rates and showing UK fell behind is perfectly valid and you’re still ignoring the imposed costs and proof of harmed industries

      source

      • deHaga@feddit.uk ⁨1⁩ ⁨month⁩ ago

        It would be perfectly valid if they used the actual data and not synthetic counter factuals.

        And it’s the net that matters, dirty goods trade has been replaced with clean services.

        source

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