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Comment on What does everyone think of the economic outlook for the next year?

CompactFlax@discuss.tchncs.de ⁨1⁩ ⁨month⁩ ago

I’m pretty gloomy based on

Pax Americana destabilizing/collapsing; wouldn’t be surprised to see some minor parties make a move
Hormuz will remain closed, because USA is anti-diplomatic and Iran has nothing to lose
AI spending will continue, but the money will start to need to be real, and the firings will continue until AI wins
El Niño will further disrupt food security
global warming will disrupt everything

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oeuf@slrpnk.net ⁨1⁩ ⁨month⁩ ago
Which foods do you think will see the highest inflation?

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- iocase@lemmy.zip ⁨1⁩ ⁨month⁩ ago
  Most modern cereals are bred to respond to nitrogen well for obvious reasons, and they also happen to be fodder for meat and animal products. Flour, rice, meat, eggs .etc. anything that grows in a grain based feedlot or is grain finished.
  
  Rapeseed should go up in price too. Same with soy. Both of these are high protein high oil fodder crops.
  
  Nitrogen fertillizer turns into protein pretty directly. So the higher the protein content of what we’re talking about, the more fertillizer you need to give it the building blocks it needs to make amino acids into proteins.
  
  I bet farmers will rotate into legumes next year to help replenish their soil and to get better yields for animal fodder. Same with beans if you can grow them, although that can need ammonia too even if it’s less than soy or canola.
  
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  - oeuf@slrpnk.net ⁨1⁩ ⁨month⁩ ago
    That’s very interesting about the relationship between nitrogen and protein.
    
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    iocase@lemmy.zip ⁨1⁩ ⁨month⁩ ago
    Yeah protein can’t be made without fixed nitrogen to work with. It is kind of fascinating that in all likelihood the vast majority of the protein in our bodies was made using natural gas due to Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) being the primary method for making the hydrogen needed for the Haber-Bosch process.
    
    Ammonium nitrate is effectively solidified natural gas which is also neat to think about.
    
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- CompactFlax@discuss.tchncs.de ⁨1⁩ ⁨month⁩ ago
  Foods that need fertilizer, eat fertilized crops, or are transported.
  
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Drusas@fedia.io ⁨1⁩ ⁨month⁩ ago
I agree except that I suspect Iran wants to open the straight and to toll everything that passes through. They just need the US to get out of there and let ships pass.

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