whoops: typed this up immediately after submitting the post, but forgot to actually post the comment.

Greens voters giving preferences to the Coalition have fallen from 21.2% in 2010 to just 11.8% in 2025

Note that Antony Green ascribes this to voters who primarily identify as Coalition voters who previously might have decided to give the Greens their first vote, but who now, thanks to continuing demonisation of the Greens by the Coalition, are less willing to do that.

Green preference now flow to Labor at a rate that the Liberal and National parties struggle to achieve between each other in three-cornered contests. In reverse, Labor preferences to the Greens where counted are often about 10% weaker in flow.

This contrasts with previous wisdom that Labor and the Greens preference each other at roughly the same rate. Disappointing, but not exactly surprising, given how much Labor and Labor’s supporters tend to demonise the Greens…and given the natural votes for where the two parties sit in the political spectrum, with Labor in the middle of the Greens and LNP.