Comment on Hrmmmmm
Socialism_Everyday@reddthat.com 4 days agoBecause that’s the name it was given by the Ukranian peoples that survived it?
Then why don’t we use any Indian names for the very many famines in India due to British occupation? Why do we call them neutral names like “Bengal famine” and not “exterminatron 3000”?
millions of “lives saved” (pop quiz: how do you measure that?)
Demographic extrapolations and comparative economics.
Warl0k3@lemmy.world 4 days ago
Do you mean dramatized names like the Great Bengal Famine? The Bengali name is “Chiẏāttōrēr mônbôntôr (lit. 'Famine of ‘76’)”, which is pretty vague given how many famines have happened in the world. Probably it merits the fancier name because it was the first one under british rule. Or did you perhaps mean the Skull Famine, which you know, not very dramatic at all.
Hi! I’m a data scientist specializing in public health data modeling and I’m sorry, that was a little mean of me to bait you like that, it’s a trick question: proving lives saved is the classic example of bad statistics and proving negatives. The assumptions required to make a definite statement about lives saved in a historical event are easy to make, but are necessarily so restrictive that they render any conclusions valueless unless you have definite conditions within a narrow time scope (like in a vaccine rollout or cholera outbreak). That’s why meaningless phrases like “Demographic extrapolations and comparative economics” are such an easy thing to parrot - you’re just saying “and then we do statistics, QED” without having to engage with the actual difficult part (the math).
Does comparative economics correlate to deaths? Sure! It correlates to just about everything you could ever want! The most famous example is the hemline index, which has spurred over a century of debate as to the actual causal connections (and if the theory itself even has merit). But proving that causal link to lives saved? Now that’s a damn tricky problem, and some really promising methodology has only recently arisen from the management of ventilator shortages during covid in the US (and it’s still being developed!) I highly recommend looking into it, it’s a fascinating field of research right now.
Socialism_Everyday@reddthat.com 3 days ago
Hmmm. Fair enough. Now let’s do an exercise: let’s go to lemmy.world search, and look for the words “skull famine”, see how many results we get. Oh, we get exactly 2 results containing the words “skull famine”, two copypastas from 2 years ago which are simply a list of western atrocities. I wonder why a famine in India with 10+ million deaths has only 2 results in lemmy.world… Compare that to the search of the word “holodomor”. My point stands, doesn’t it?
Good that you’re a data scientist specializing in public health data modeling! Will be interesting. The thing is, you can easily do these studies for the particular case of the transition to capitalism, because you can use many metrics: alcohol consumption, violent crime statistics, drug use, deaths from certain diseases, expenditure in healthcare, number of suicides… etc. You can take all of those metrics and see how they all vastly increase in the transition to capitalism. Sure, if it were just one of those metrics, then you maybe would be able to say it’s because of another reason, but when all of these metrics consistently rise sharply during a horrifying economic crisis byproduct of capitalism in several post-soviet republics at the same time, you can quite confidently both calculate numbers, and blame them on capitalism. As a matter of fact, this has been done widely for modern capitalist Russia, with this study talking of 3.5 million probable deaths between 1990 and 1998 alone, and this other study by Paul Cockshott reaching the figure of 12 million excess deaths between 1986 and 2008, though this latter one using much simpler methodology. Similar studies can be carried out for Ukraine, which suffered even harder since the crisis took longer to recover, and either way the numbers point towards the millions. And this is only excess deaths, not including lack of childbirth and economic migrations, both also counting in the millions.
Warl0k3@lemmy.world 3 days ago
Your point was that we don’t use big scary names taken from the native language for other famines like the ones that happened under british indian rule thus “Holodomor” must clearly be a politicized name. Except you were flat wrong and we totally do the exact thing you said we didn’t. Prior to that, your point was that Holodomor sounded like “Holocaust” so clearly it must be a politicized name. And then you were dead wrong, because despite it being obviously true that the two share a common lingusitic root, Holodomor was coined a good twenty years before “The Holocaust” happened, so it can’t have been a reference.
Now your point is that it must be a politicized name because it’s more talked about than a different famine, one which wasn’t ever punishable with death to be discussed, which there is no active effort to deny it’s severity or cause, which has no relevancy in the broad political climate, on a tiny website, and even using the world’s most arbitrary and cherry-picked metric you got the number wrong (there’s 11 results, including my comment above, but for some reason (possibly related to LW’s search indexing being notoriously unreliable - which is true across pretty much all of lemmy) excluding your comment. So, we can chalk it up to 12 and also question the reliability of the methodology as a whole.
Here: Yes, the Holodomor is political - it was absolutely the result of political actions, and is the subject of a great many conspiracy theories and weirdo apologist movements today. No, the name Holodomor was not made up just to be scarier by association with The Holocaust to discredit the Soviets who caused it like you’re implying - the word existed twenty years before the coining of the term Holocaust. You’re just plain flat out wrong in the particulars you’re claiming.
Can you please move on?
Okay, new topic:
Cockshott’s (great name) paper is just pretty awful in general (which is probably why it’s in a magazine and not a journal) and his methodology for calculating excess deaths is, even he acknowledges in the text, extremely dubious (which is fine, he does that to illustrate a tangential concept). but it does make some good points towards the end and I agree with his overall thesis about planned economies (once I figured out what it was). Rosefielde’s (great name) paper is excellent, and breaks down his calculations in an extremely easily digested manner. I might even use it as an example of decent demographic calculation at some point, it’s just a really good overview of the process and details the factors effecting (hehe) the
However: Both of those papers answer show examples of addressing death rates, and make no attempt the problem of calculating lives saved. Lives saved is the metric in question, not death rate. They’re terrible examples for your point, because they make no attempt to address your point whatsoever.
If your claim, “you can easily do these studies for the particular case of the transition to capitalism”, were actually true, why would you cite these papers, instead of ones that have nothing to do with your point at all?
Socialism_Everyday@reddthat.com 3 days ago
My claim isn’t that the word Holodomor was coined to make it sound scary, it’s that the word becoming the one to refer to the event in the western world is no coincidence. The etymological origin can be whichever it is.
Now, why oh why does the Skull Famine not have relevancy on the political climate? That’s exactly my point. Other famines are depoliticized (the article on Wikipedia for example chalks most of it down to climate) but “Holodomor” is made out to be by western anticommunist propaganda an attempt of genocide against Ukrainians. The motivations, followup or precedents are left to guess, though, but that’s fine, nobody will question it because first, questioning genocide is a risky thing to do, and secondly, it’s le evil Russian commies doing it, so ofc we will all believe it in the west.
Just a small remark: the two search results I referred to after searching “skull famine” came from not just searching those words on lemmy.world, but also from doing a Ctrl+F search for the words to be together. After ignoring our conversation, only two results meet that condition.
Ok. Funny to me that you hadn’t seen any of this before. Given the proximity to our modern times of this excess mortality numbering the millions in Russia alone, it should be a political hotbed shouldn’t it? Especially now that sensibilities with Ukraine are high, I wonder, why is it that similar studies but regarding the impact of capitalism in Ukraine aren’t constantly discussed? Be honest, were you aware of the scale of death and suffering caused by capitalist restoration in the eastern block? Given your original dismiss when I talked of drug abuse, organized crime, suicide rates, malnutrition and preventable disease, I doubt it. You seem to know so much about Holodomor though, so ask yourself: why is that? Why do you only seem to know about the millions of Ukrainians who died under socialism 90 years ago but you didn’t quite know what happened in the region in terms of life metrics for the past 35?
Cool, but I addressed that already. I already gave you the Brazil example. Tell me any other underdeveloped country that, between 1930 and 1960, had a doubling of life expectancy from 28 to 60. Comparative economics is a valid method, and there is no country that had this growth at the time, which is even more relevant in the case of the USSR because for equally developed countries, socialist ones consistently give better life metrics. You don’t believe in comparative economics, or in the idea that economic development correlates (especially in socialist societies) with increased life expectancy and reduced mortality?