There’s 2 reasons I think he won’t go easy
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The other owners have seemed to be annoyed with Balmers spending ability to the point they put actual team building penalties like the 2nd apron into the last CBA so think there will be pressure from other owners to throw the book at him especially with it being a star player.
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With gambling legalized and the league promoting it, there’s an expectation the league should enforce fairness even more than before.
The league is already dealing with questions of legitimacy with the gambling investigation on some players, they really don’t want teams skirting cap rules on top of that. They’ll likely get pressure from the sportsbook partners since if people think it’s rigged they won’t bet.