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Comment on I'm looking to buy a new rig, as I'm not from US the dolar going down will help me immensely. Now how do you think it will behave in the coming weeks?

N0t_5ure@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago

It’s very difficult to anticipate market changes, and that includes currency markets. That said, the dollar is trending downward, but it is unlikely to plummet by a large percentage anytime soon. A more likely scenario is a slow erosion of the value of the dollar over the long term. However, in addition to movement of the dollar, you have to also be concerned about movement in the Uruguay peso. The dollar may be falling, but if the peso falls more, there would be a net gain in the dollar vs. the peso. 21% of Uruguay’s trade is with China, and a contraction in the Chinese economy could impact the peso.

That said, Powell’s term as head of the fed is over in May of 2026, and Trump will definitely appoint a lackey that will do what he wants. Ultimately, between erosion of trade with the trade wars, profligate government spending, and ill-considered monetary policy, I think the dollar will be significantly lower by the end of 2026 than it is today.

In my opinion, I think you’re better off evaluating your purchase in terms of the value it provides to you, rather than trying to time the market with currency exchange rates. People much smarter than I have lost vast sums of money trying to play exchange rates. Consider George Soro’s play in shorting the British pound in 1992, where the pound collapsed and his position gained over $1 billion in a single day. While he was a big winner, there were many big losers on the other side of that trade. The situation was fairly unique, in that at the time the pound was being propped up by the British government, which is unlike the situation with the dollar today.
Further, even if the dollar were to collapse, in all likelihood sellers would demand more dollars for their goods, so it isn’t clear that there would be a big benefit in trying to time the currency markets.

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S_H_K@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago

The dollar may be falling, but if the peso falls more, there would be a net gain in the dollar vs. the peso. 21% of Uruguay’s trade is with China, and a contraction in the Chinese economy could impact the peso.
True but it would be very strange for China to fall down right now even tough they are having those wacky crisis they have enough to mitigate the imapct for now. We are a little decopuled from Argentina luckly and the rest of the region is doing kinda alright. Not great but handles it. Also here is pretty stable at least for the time being.

I think the dollar will be significantly lower by the end of 2026 than it is today.
My question is more in the near future as for 2026 maybe markets reajusted and inflation would have kicked in.

In my opinion, I think you’re better off evaluating your purchase in terms of the value it provides to you, rather than trying to time the market with currency exchange rates.
Absolutely true but the cheapskate in me cannot help to hope to squeeze a little more bang for my buck 🤣

Further, even if the dollar were to collapse, in all likelihood sellers would demand more dollars for their goods, so it isn’t clear that there would be a big benefit in trying to time the currency markets.

Yes buuut in the time that readjusts maybe I can get a good price.

To be more specific I’m thinking into going for it next week or the other just want to doublecheck a little the when exactly.

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- N0t_5ure@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago
  If you’re looking at making the purchase next week or in a month, I doubt there would be a significant difference in the exchange rate. I’d be more concerned about whether the item I’m buying incorporates foreign made parts subjected to tariffs, and the potential for price increases as a result of more costly inputs.
  
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  - S_H_K@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago
    This is pretty much my suspicion but asking around doesn’t hurt. Ty for the help!
    
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