Yeah. I also assumed it was closer to 40 but figured I would check howlongtobeat.

And yeah, if you know what you are doing you are going to be closer to the golden ending than not on any given run. But if someone is doing a genuinely blind run (rather than following gamefaqs) they have good odds of missing out on the truly optional character, missing a lot of good loot, possibly missing out on the semi-optional character, etc.