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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/Jimmy_G_Wentworth on 2024-01-30 02:11:19.

Every year, at one point or another, the discourse around success for one reason or another becomes a conversation of QB vs QB.

Recently, this post was made and will act as a primary example:

Last I checked, QBs don’t play against each other on the field. QBs face off against Defenses. Thus, I feel like it’s important for us to look at the Defenses QBs faced on their way to winning the Super Bowl, as a way to determine the difficulties they faced along the way (and compare one run vs another).

So, I went ahead and made a spreadsheet showing the following: Super Bowl Winning QB, their Team’s Defensive Rank, and the Defensive Rank for every team they faced in the playoffs on the way to winning it all.

A few things to note:

  • Defensive Rank here is based on Pts Per Game. It’s the most static stat over the years and is the best indicator of how good a Defense is. (Also couldn’t find data far enough back on stuff like DVOA. Please let me know if you have any suggestions!)
  • This only goes back too 1978, when the Wild Card round was put into place. Data, stats, and averages before that become more difficult to pull & put into context
  • I would have built the table in here instead of linking the spreadsheet, but I am not sure about how to format that, nor do I have the time to learn currently

Now, for some interesting things I learned while putting this together.

Since 1978:

  • The #1 Defense (Pts/g) has made it to 16 Super Bowls (35.6%)
  • The #1 Defense (Pts/g) has won the Super Bowl 12 times (26.7%)
  • The Super Bowl Winner had a Top 10 Defense (Pts/g) 37 times (82.2%)
  • The Super Bowl Winner has played in the Wild Card Round 12 times (26.7%)

So, while having a #1 Defense undoubtedly helps win the Super Bowl, being in the top 10 is what really matters (along with getting a first round bye). Those are just some team / league trends we see though. We came here to compare elite runs by QBs in the Playoffs on their way to the Super Bow, so lets get into it!

When looking at the Average Defensive Rank of Playoff Opponents based on Points Per Game, the following are the top 9 (after 9 we start seeing ties):

  1. 1998, John Elway
  2. 2006, Peyton Manning
  3. 2017, Nick Foles
  4. 1985, Jim McMahon
  5. 1990, Jeff Hostetler
  6. 1984, Joe Montana
  7. 2007, Eli Manning
  8. 1988, Joe Montana
  9. 1996, Brett Favre

Out of this group:

  • only 2 played in the Wild Card Round
  • only 4 faced a top 5 defense in the Super Bowl itself
  • only 4 had sub-Top 5 defenses on their own team.

Interestingly, the only two people that fall into each of the categories listed above? Peyton Manning in 2006 and Eli Manning in 2007.

In 2006, Peyton Manning’s Colts had were the 23rd DEF Rank (Pts/g). They faced the #11 Defense against KC, #1 Defense against Baltimore, #2 Defense against New England, and #3 Defense against Chicago. In the history of the NFL, no other QB has beaten the Top 1,2, and 3 Defenses on their way to becoming Super Bowl Champs. The closest was Elway in 1998 who beat the 1,2, and 4.

In 2007, Eli Manning’s Giants had the 17th DEF Rank (Pts/g). They faced the #3 Defense against the Bucs, #13 Defense against the Cowboys, #6 Defense against the Packers, and #4 Defense against the Patriots.

Lastly, I’d be a fool to not go into the QB / Team that faced the best average Defense on the way to a SB Championship: The previously mentioned 1998 Elway Broncos.

In 1998, John Elway’s Broncos had the #8 DEF Rank (Pts/g). Unlike the Mannings, he did not have to play in the Wild Card round after securing a Playoff Bye. That said, he faced the #1 Defense against Miami, #2 Defense against the Jets, and #4 Defense against the Falcons.

Overall, when looking at the best QB playoff runs, it’s hard to choose a 1 & 2 between 1998 Elway and 2006 Manning. They faced similarly stout defenses during their runs, but Manning had a SIGNIFICANTLY worse defense of his own and had to play an extra game in the wild card.

While no set of data will ever tell the whole story, I hope we can stop talking nonsensical “QB vs QB” narratives and talk more about the defenses some of these QBs have had to power through on their way to Glory.

PS - bias shout out to Foles sitting Top 3 on the list of averages.

Edit: I decided to add a column that looks at Average Defense Rank of Opponents without the Wild Card round since so many of these QBs didn’t play in the Wild Card and it was dropping averages down a LOT. What I’ve gathered is that it ranks Peyton Manning’s 06 as the highest, and significantly highlights the defenses faced by Aaron Rogers faced in 2010 and Ben Roethlisberger in 05. This is also where we see Flacco’s 2012 average sky rocket and puts into context the legendary run we all remember him having.