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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/practicalist on 2023-12-30 20:49:50.
QB Score is an attempt to create a QB rating system that can account for the non-passing stats and value a modern hybrid quarterback brings to the position. For comparison, Passer Rating & QBR have been included for each quarterback in addition to their QB Score.
This is the cliffnotes version of the full article: QB Score vs QBR vs Passer Rating Through Week 16
TLDR: Look at the chart below. It is sorted by QB Score.
QB Score Metrics
Here are the metrics for calculating QBS. All NFL QBs are scored in 14 statistics:
Completion %
Passing Yards / Game
Intended Air Yards / Pass Attempt
Completed Air Yards / Game
Completed Air Yards / Pass Attempt
Intended Air Yards/ Pass Attempt - Completed Air Yards / Pass Attempt (Inverse)
On Target %
Touchdown %
Interception % (Inverse)
1st Down Success %
Sack % (Inverse)
Rushing 1st Downs
Planned Rushing Yardage per game
Scramble Rushing Yardage per game
Three statistics have (Inverse) next to them. This simply means when calculating, a lower value is better. At the bottom of every metric you can see the average and the size of 1 unit SD range.
QB Scores In The 14 Metrics - 11 Passing Stats & 3 Rushing Stats
Quarterback Types
There are two components of QB Score: Pass Score and Rush Score. The sum of the two is QB Score. By looking at the Pass/Rush Score pairings, you can see that most quarterbacks will fit into one of the following categories.
Pocket Passer - High Pass Score and negative or average Rush score. Keep them upright and don’t expect them to run.
Prototypes: Purdy & Goff
Hybrid Passer - Will have mid range Pass and Rush Scores but pass will be relatively higher. These guys have either a little power or wiggle to their running game, but aren’t a Hurts or Jackson.
Prototypes: Prescott & Lawrence
Hybrid Rusher - Will have a higher Rush score than pass score, though pass score will still be well above average. There are only a few of these who have the pass game to complement their rushing skils.
Prototypes: Hurts & Jackson
Pure Hybrid - This is a quarterback with both high pass and rush scores, but the pass score is higher. This is probably the rarest type of quarterback.
Prototypes: Allen & Mahomes(in a typical year)
Cagey Veterans - Above average pass scores and fairly negative rush scores due to age.
Prototypes: Stafford, G. Smith & Flacco
Average Quarterback - Both Pass & Rush scores hover around 0.00. There is nothing special about them but they aren’t disasters waiting to happen.
Prototypes: R. Wilson, Garappolo, Ridder(has been a disaster in the red zone)
Run Around & Chuck It - Negative pass scores and positive rush scores.
Prototypes: Fields, Murray
Walking Timebombs - Negative pass and rush scores, many with quite negative efforts in both categories.
Prototype A: O’Connell & M Jones
Some will have a modicum of rush ability but then even worse pass scores
Prototype B: Z Wilson & B Young.
The Quarterback Tiers
We can use the Standard Deviation (6.13) of QB Score to create Quarterback Tiers. In paranthesis is the amount of quarterbacks in each tier through week 16.
QB Score of 6.14 or Higher (8 QBs)
From Purdy to Stroud would be considered the elite QBs of 2023 by QB Score rankings. The QB Score for these quarterbacks are at least 1 SD unit higher than an average quarterback.
QB Score of 0.00 to 6.13 (16 QBs)
From Lawrence all the way down to Joe Burrow with a QB Score of 0.13 would be the next tier which would be the very good quarterbacks down to the serviceable. The QB Score for these quarterbacks are bewteen 0.00 and 1.00 SD unit higher than an average quarterback.
You have the classic group of savvy veterans in here like Stafford, Carr, Flacco, Mayfield.
QB Score of -6.13 to 0.00 (11 QBs)
Anthony Richardson would be the beginning of the average to below average tier. It runs down through Mitchell Trubisky who is the caboose of the “Use In Case of Emergency” group. This group has QB Scores somewhere between -1.00 SD and 0.00.
QB Score of -6.14 & Below (10 QBs)
Mac Jones down to Zappe is the “You really don’t want to send them out there” tier. Daniel Jones is the only patch of green(3.70 Rush score), but he balances it out nicely by having a dead last Pass score of -10.12(Tommy Devito is next to last at -10.06). These quarterbacks’ QB Score are all at least 1 full SD unit worse than an average quarterback
Top QB Score Through Week 16
The ranking of quarterbacks based on QB Score.
The 5 Quarterbacks who can win MVP
If QB Score were used for MVP consideration, it would be down to just 5 quarterbacks. Four in a virtual dead heat, and a fifth with an outside shot at coming back and stealing the title in the final two games.
Brock Purdy Pocket Passer (10.49)
Purdy’s score is dependent on Completion %, Pass Yards/game, Completed Air Yards/Pass Attempt, TD%, & 1st Down %. He will need to keep up the pace in all those stats to avoid losing points.
If Purdy could run a bit in the last 2 games, that would be his best chance to make up any points loss in the passing stats he gets huge points in. He does get the Commanders in week 17 who haven’t put up much resistance to any type of offense in the second half of the season.
Jalen Hurts Hybrid-Rusher (10.37)
He scores ridiculously high in 1st Downs per game, and quite high in planned rushing yards. So like Purdy he will need to keep up the pass in those categories or risk losing points to the field.
Two good games against weak opponents could see Hurts rack up the passing stats he needs to take the QB score title. If you need passing stats, the Cardinals & Giants are a pretty tasty menu.
Lamar Jackson Hybrid-Rusher (10.29)
Jackson(3.24 Pass 7.06 Rush) gets massive points in planned rushing yards per game, and high points in 1st downs per game and scramble yards per game.
Just like Hurts Jackson is middle of the pack in many passing stats so a couple of good passing games could see him make up a lot of points in the pass metrics. Unfortunately he has Miami’s pass defense in Week 17 to contend with so if he does put up big numbers, he will have earned it.
Of all the players in the hunt, Jackson is most vulnerable to himself. He must keep up the other worldly rushing metrics or lose points simply for not be superhuman at times.
Dak Prescott Hybrid-Passer (10.24)
Prescott(10.20 Pass 0.04 Rush)sits on the borderline between Pocket Passer and Hybrid-Passer and I just chose the latter. You could easily call him a Pocket Passer. Prescott is decidely average at all the rushing metrics and therefore the overall rush score as well.
To stay in the race Prescott will simply need to make good decisions: keep completion % & TD% high, and chip in with a run here and there. The Lions pass defense could be just what Dak needs to pad his passing stats.
If Prescott were to have 2 good rushing games, he could make up the points he needs without having to do anything more in the passing game than status quo.
Josh Allen Hybrid (9.75)
No other QB ranks as high in both Passing stats and Rushing stats as Allen. Hurts & Lamar have each other to point to as a similar quarterback. There is no other QB to point to when it comes to Allen’s mix of high level passing and high level rushing. Mahomes in a normal season would be this type of unqualified Hybrid.
Allen needs to stop throwing INTs and gunslinging. His INT % and IAT/PA - CAY/PA scores are hurting him aginst the other 4 quarterbacks. A couple successful planned QB draws or sprint out options would help his rushing scores.
The downside is he doesn’t control what the other four quarterbacks do. If any of the four put together 2 really good games, they may be impossible to catch.
Good Season But Eliminated
Tua Tagovoiloa Pocket Passer (8.49)
Tagovoila(11.33 Pass -2.84 Rush) is just too far out of it to have a legitimate chance at winning the QB Score title.
His best hope would be a rushing outburst the likes of which could get him hurt which clearly isn’t worth the cost. Beating the Ravens in week 17(with his arm being a major component) would be a must if Tagovailoa wants back into the MVP conversation.
C.J. Stroud Pocket Passer (7.15)
Easily the best rookie QB and a very solid 8th overall(7th if you discount Cousins). The d…
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