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The original was posted on /r/nfl by /u/JPAnalyst on 2023-12-28 19:04:21.
Kansas City receivers have been famously bad this year, dropping passes, giving up interceptions that hit them in the hands, etc. The eye test tells us that Patrick Mahomes has been unlucky as a result of things outside of his control, but how unlucky? I used Sports Info Solutions IQR (Independent Quarterback Rating) and compared it to the QBs standard passer rating to get the difference. (Passer Rating minus IQR). If a QB ends up with a negative number, it means their IQR is better than their passer rating. If they have a positive number, their IQR is worse.
Here is how Sports Info Solutions defines IQR: proprietary quarterback metric builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by considering the value of a quarterback independent of results outside of his control such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc.
Mahomes ends up with the 2nd largest negative score behind Josh Allen. These are the five most “unlucky” quarterbacks this year:
| Player | Passer Rating | IQR | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen | 93.7 | 103.0 | -9.3 |
| P.Mahomes | 91.7 | 99.2 | -7.5 |
| J.Burrow | 91.0 | 97.6 | -6.6 |
| Z.Wilson | 77.2 | 83.7 | -6.5 |
| L.Jackson | 97.2 | 103.6 | -6.4 |
These players have the largest positive values, with Passer Ratings above IQR. In other words, this could be interpreted as the 5 luckiest QBs so far:
| Player | Passer Rating | IQR | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| W.Levis | 85.3 | 70.6 | +14.7 |
| M.Jones | 77.0 | 67.6 | +9.4 |
| D.Jones | 70.5 | 62.1 | +8.4 |
| B.Zappe | 83.1 | 74.7 | +8.4 |
| D.Ridder | 82.2 | 74.6 | +7.6 |
Here is the difference for all QBs this year with a minimum of 150 pass attempts: