This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/why_doineedausername on 2023-12-24 02:08:57.
Earlier this week, I shared this post about team performance this 2023 regular season. That original model was based exclusively on talent, which led to some odd results. Overall, it was still IMO impressive how well a single number (talent) from the preseason correlated so well with the final season outcome. However, I challenged myself to make the model better so the average fan could find more meaning in it. I incorporated preseason ELO ratings, which significantly improved the correlation from 0.53 to 0.67. ELO ratings go up when you win and down when you lose, and the amount is determined by how much better or worse the team you played was. While it isn’t a good predictor of any individual matchup, it is an excellent indicator of the current state of your program. The unfortunate part is that since ELO isn’t available for every team, some are missing from the rankings. I presented to you the updated (and significantly more accurate) how did your team perform this year.
| Rank | Team | O/U Perf |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | 1.27 |
| 2 | Army | 1.02 |
| 3 | Air Force | 0.97 |
| 4 | Navy | 0.94 |
| 5 | Washington | 0.91 |
| 6 | Wyoming | 0.81 |
| 7 | UNLV | 0.79 |
| 8 | Kansas | 0.74 |
| 9 | Arizona | 0.71 |
| 10 | Missouri | 0.70 |
| 11 | Miami (OH) | 0.67 |
| 12 | Troy | 0.66 |
| 13 | West Virginia | 0.61 |
| 14 | Florida State | 0.58 |
| 15 | Rutgers | 0.54 |
| 16 | Iowa State | 0.53 |
| 17 | Bowling Green | 0.52 |
| 18 | Ole Miss | 0.51 |
| 19 | Oklahoma State | 0.51 |
| 20 | Old Dominion | 0.45 |
| 21 | Ohio | 0.44 |
| 22 | Northwestern | 0.43 |
| 23 | Michigan | 0.40 |
| 24 | Kansas State | 0.40 |
| 25 | Colorado | 0.39 |
| 26 | Northern Illinois | 0.38 |
| 27 | Oklahoma | 0.38 |
| 28 | SMU | 0.38 |
| 29 | Oregon | 0.36 |
| 30 | California | 0.31 |
| 31 | Texas | 0.31 |
| 32 | Duke | 0.28 |
| 33 | Virginia Tech | 0.27 |
| 34 | Hawai’i | 0.26 |
| 35 | Texas State | 0.25 |
| 36 | Toledo | 0.24 |
| 37 | NC State | 0.24 |
| 38 | Oregon State | 0.23 |
| 39 | New Mexico | 0.22 |
| 40 | San José State | 0.22 |
| 41 | Arkansas State | 0.21 |
| 42 | Utah State | 0.20 |
| 43 | Colorado State | 0.20 |
| 44 | Iowa | 0.19 |
| 45 | Tulane | 0.19 |
| 46 | Coastal Carolina | 0.17 |
| 47 | Washington State | 0.16 |
| 48 | Georgia Tech | 0.14 |
| 49 | Central Michigan | 0.13 |
| 50 | Boston College | 0.12 |
| 51 | Georgia Southern | 0.08 |
| 52 | Texas Tech | 0.04 |
| 53 | Syracuse | 0.04 |
| 54 | Kentucky | 0.02 |
| 55 | Florida International | 0.02 |
| 56 | Penn State | 0.01 |
| 57 | Louisville | 0.00 |
| 58 | Memphis | -0.01 |
| 59 | Maryland | -0.01 |
| 60 | Miami | -0.02 |
| 61 | Appalachian State | -0.03 |
| 62 | Louisiana Monroe | -0.03 |
| 63 | Utah | -0.04 |
| 64 | Auburn | -0.05 |
| 65 | Boise State | -0.05 |
| 66 | Ohio State | -0.08 |
| 67 | Western Michigan | -0.09 |
| 68 | Ball State | -0.10 |
| 69 | North Carolina | -0.11 |
| 70 | LSU | -0.13 |
| 71 | Purdue | -0.13 |
| 72 | Marshall | -0.13 |
| 73 | Virginia | -0.14 |
| 74 | Notre Dame | -0.14 |
| 75 | San Diego State | -0.15 |
| 76 | South Alabama | -0.16 |
| 77 | Buffalo | -0.16 |
| 78 | Stanford | -0.18 |
| 79 | UCLA | -0.19 |
| 80 | Eastern Michigan | -0.20 |
| 81 | Alabama | -0.21 |
| 82 | Indiana | -0.22 |
| 83 | UTEP | -0.22 |
| 84 | Georgia State | -0.22 |
| 85 | Louisiana Tech | -0.22 |
| 86 | Louisiana | -0.23 |
| 87 | South Florida | -0.23 |
| 88 | Southern Mississippi | -0.25 |
| 89 | Texas A&M | -0.27 |
| 90 | Arizona State | -0.28 |
| 91 | TCU | -0.28 |
| 92 | Wisconsin | -0.28 |
| 93 | Fresno State | -0.29 |
| 94 | South Carolina | -0.32 |
| 95 | Florida | -0.33 |
| 96 | Nebraska | -0.36 |
| 97 | Minnesota | -0.37 |
| 98 | Connecticut | -0.38 |
| 99 | Vanderbilt | -0.38 |
| 100 | Wake Forest | -0.38 |
| 101 | Western Kentucky | -0.39 |
| 102 | Tulsa | -0.40 |
| 103 | Middle Tennessee | -0.40 |
| 104 | Nevada | -0.40 |
| 105 | Mississippi State | -0.41 |
| 106 | Illinois | -0.42 |
| 107 | UMass | -0.42 |
| 108 | Tennessee | -0.45 |
| 109 | USC | -0.46 |
| 110 | Georgia | -0.47 |
| 111 | Michigan State | -0.47 |
| 112 | Baylor | -0.53 |
| 113 | Clemson | -0.54 |
| 114 | Arkansas | -0.55 |
| 115 | Temple | -0.57 |
| 116 | Akron | -0.63 |
| 117 | Pittsburgh | -0.68 |
| 118 | East Carolina | -0.77 |
| 119 | Kent State | -0.88 |