This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/why_doineedausername on 2023-12-17 18:27:59.
Fit Plot showing performance calculation fit
| Rank | Team | O/U Performance |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Air Force | 2.39 |
| 2 | James Madison | 2.2 |
| 3 | Army | 2.04 |
| 4 | Navy | 1.9 |
| 5 | Liberty | 1.6 |
| 6 | Wyoming | 1.05 |
| 7 | Troy | 1.04 |
| 8 | Washington | 1.04 |
| 9 | Kansas State | 0.92 |
| 10 | Michigan | 0.91 |
| 11 | UNLV | 0.87 |
| 12 | Ohio | 0.84 |
| 13 | Florida State | 0.82 |
| 14 | Miami (OH) | 0.82 |
| 15 | Tulane | 0.62 |
| 16 | Old Dominion | 0.61 |
| 17 | Oregon State | 0.58 |
| 18 | Iowa State | 0.55 |
| 19 | New Mexico State | 0.55 |
| 20 | Kansas | 0.5 |
| 21 | Oklahoma State | 0.5 |
| 22 | Ole Miss | 0.45 |
| 23 | Iowa | 0.41 |
| 24 | Toledo | 0.41 |
| 25 | Missouri | 0.39 |
| 26 | Texas | 0.38 |
| 27 | Utah | 0.38 |
| 28 | Arizona | 0.37 |
| 29 | Northern Illinois | 0.37 |
| 30 | West Virginia | 0.36 |
| 31 | Washington State | 0.34 |
| 32 | Penn State | 0.32 |
| 33 | Boise State | 0.3 |
| 34 | Bowling Green | 0.3 |
| 35 | Central Michigan | 0.3 |
| 36 | Duke | 0.29 |
| 37 | San José State | 0.28 |
| 38 | BYU | 0.26 |
| 39 | Appalachian State | 0.25 |
| 40 | Oregon | 0.24 |
| 41 | Utah State | 0.24 |
| 42 | Georgia Southern | 0.21 |
| 43 | NC State | 0.2 |
| 44 | Buffalo | 0.19 |
| 45 | Ohio State | 0.19 |
| 46 | SMU | 0.19 |
| 47 | Fresno State | 0.18 |
| 48 | Marshall | 0.17 |
| 49 | UCF | 0.15 |
| 50 | Colorado State | 0.14 |
| 51 | Louisville | 0.14 |
| 52 | Oklahoma | 0.14 |
| 53 | Alabama | 0.11 |
| 54 | San Diego State | 0.1 |
| 55 | Coastal Carolina | 0.09 |
| 56 | Georgia | 0.09 |
| 57 | Texas Tech | 0.09 |
| 58 | Western Kentucky | 0.09 |
| 59 | UT San Antonio | 0.08 |
| 60 | Louisiana | 0.07 |
| 61 | Maryland | 0.06 |
| 62 | Memphis | 0.05 |
| 63 | California | 0.04 |
| 64 | Eastern Michigan | 0.04 |
| 65 | Hawai’i | 0.02 |
| 66 | Rice | 0.01 |
| 67 | Rutgers | 0 |
| 68 | Texas State | -0.02 |
| 69 | Northwestern | -0.03 |
| 70 | Syracuse | -0.03 |
| 71 | Minnesota | -0.04 |
| 72 | Kentucky | -0.05 |
| 73 | Western Michigan | -0.05 |
| 74 | Ball State | -0.07 |
| 75 | Georgia State | -0.07 |
| 76 | Notre Dame | -0.07 |
| 77 | Tennessee | -0.07 |
| 78 | Virginia Tech | -0.07 |
| 79 | LSU | -0.08 |
| 80 | South Alabama | -0.09 |
| 81 | Illinois | -0.1 |
| 82 | New Mexico | -0.1 |
| 83 | UTEP | -0.14 |
| 84 | Wake Forest | -0.14 |
| 85 | Arkansas State | -0.15 |
| 86 | North Texas | -0.15 |
| 87 | Louisiana Monroe | -0.16 |
| 88 | UCLA | -0.17 |
| 89 | Auburn | -0.19 |
| 90 | Wisconsin | -0.21 |
| 91 | TCU | -0.22 |
| 92 | UAB | -0.22 |
| 93 | Southern Mississippi | -0.24 |
| 94 | Purdue | -0.31 |
| 95 | Boston College | -0.37 |
| 96 | Mississippi State | -0.37 |
| 97 | North Carolina | -0.37 |
| 98 | Georgia Tech | -0.38 |
| 99 | Baylor | -0.4 |
| 100 | Middle Tennessee | -0.4 |
| 101 | Virginia | -0.41 |
| 102 | Houston | -0.42 |
| 103 | South Carolina | -0.42 |
| 104 | Cincinnati | -0.44 |
| 105 | Tulsa | -0.44 |
| 106 | Arizona State | -0.49 |
| 107 | Arkansas | -0.5 |
| 108 | Louisiana Tech | -0.5 |
| 109 | Clemson | -0.56 |
| 110 | Colorado | -0.57 |
| 111 | Pittsburgh | -0.57 |
| 112 | Nevada | -0.58 |
| 113 | Nebraska | -0.59 |
| 114 | USC | -0.59 |
| 115 | Indiana | -0.6 |
| 116 | Florida | -0.62 |
| 117 | Florida Atlantic | -0.62 |
| 118 | Texas A&M | -0.62 |
| 119 | Michigan State | -0.64 |
| 120 | East Carolina | -0.69 |
| 121 | Connecticut | -0.72 |
| 122 | Kent State | -0.72 |
| 123 | Miami | -0.74 |
| 124 | Florida International | -0.75 |
| 125 | Stanford | -0.76 |
| 126 | South Florida | -0.82 |
| 127 | Vanderbilt | -0.84 |
| 128 | Akron | -0.88 |
| 129 | Charlotte | -0.9 |
| 130 | Temple | -1.02 |
| 131 | UMass | -1.32 |
Methodology: If we plot team performance vs 247Sports talent composite, we can see a fairly strong correlation. To quantify performance, I wanted to use a SOS adjusted win% rating as opposed to a power rating which doesn’t necessarily tell you how well a team actually did. There were several good metrics for this, but I went with Massey’s rating (NOT power), because it’s easily accessible and I trust the math. From there, we can calculate how far above or below the fit line a team is. Because of the nature of service academies, they tend to have little or no talent and still manage to perform well each year, so service academies were excluded from the fit as outliers. This effect is apparent in the image at the top demonstrating the fit.
In the offseason, I will be posting the best over and under performances of the past decade.