This is an automated archive made by the Lemmit Bot.
The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/why_doineedausername on 2023-12-10 17:59:30.
I calculated all team’s performances in bowl games since 2013. All teams ranked by performance per game (minimum 3 games).
Methodolgy: Using pre-game win expectancy from CFBdata, performance was calculated as follows. If a team wins a game, they get (1 minus odds to win) points. If they lose, they lose odds to win points. For example, if a team has a 75% chance to win, if they win they get 0.25 points (1-.75), if they lose they get -0.75 points. In this way, teams are rewarded for upsets and punished for losing games they should’ve won.
| Rank | Team | Games | Perf | Perf/Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Troy | 3 | 1.299 | 0.433 |
| 2 | Louisiana Tech | 7 | 2.885 | 0.412 |
| 3 | Hawai’i | 4 | 1.402 | 0.351 |
| 4 | Northwestern | 5 | 1.693 | 0.339 |
| 5 | Air Force | 6 | 1.922 | 0.320 |
| 6 | Liberty | 4 | 1.159 | 0.290 |
| 7 | Texas Tech | 5 | 1.432 | 0.286 |
| 8 | Syracuse | 3 | 0.847 | 0.282 |
| 9 | Minnesota | 8 | 1.958 | 0.245 |
| 10 | Michigan State | 7 | 1.690 | 0.241 |
| 11 | Western Kentucky | 8 | 1.920 | 0.240 |
| 12 | Tennessee | 6 | 1.432 | 0.239 |
| 13 | Wisconsin | 10 | 2.252 | 0.225 |
| 14 | Duke | 5 | 1.103 | 0.221 |
| 15 | Appalachian State | 7 | 1.528 | 0.218 |
| 16 | Arkansas | 5 | 1.088 | 0.218 |
| 17 | TCU | 6 | 1.287 | 0.215 |
| 18 | Wake Forest | 6 | 1.284 | 0.214 |
| 19 | Navy | 5 | 1.030 | 0.206 |
| 20 | San Diego State | 7 | 1.398 | 0.200 |
| 21 | Buffalo | 4 | 0.772 | 0.193 |
| 22 | Oklahoma State | 10 | 1.680 | 0.168 |
| 23 | Army | 4 | 0.642 | 0.161 |
| 24 | Florida Atlantic | 3 | 0.471 | 0.157 |
| 25 | Nebraska | 4 | 0.608 | 0.152 |
| 26 | Nevada | 5 | 0.759 | 0.152 |
| 27 | Marshall | 9 | 1.328 | 0.148 |
| 28 | Kentucky | 7 | 0.992 | 0.142 |
| 29 | Georgia | 13 | 1.548 | 0.119 |
| 30 | Ohio State | 12 | 1.392 | 0.116 |
| 31 | Rutgers | 3 | 0.340 | 0.113 |
| 32 | UAB | 4 | 0.436 | 0.109 |
| 33 | Texas | 6 | 0.652 | 0.109 |
| 34 | Oklahoma | 8 | 0.852 | 0.107 |
| 35 | UCF | 8 | 0.790 | 0.099 |
| 36 | Notre Dame | 7 | 0.668 | 0.095 |
| 37 | Wyoming | 5 | 0.473 | 0.095 |
| 38 | Ohio | 7 | 0.629 | 0.090 |
| 39 | Oregon State | 3 | 0.251 | 0.084 |
| 40 | Georgia State | 5 | 0.417 | 0.083 |
| 41 | Texas A&M | 7 | 0.582 | 0.083 |
| 42 | Louisville | 7 | 0.579 | 0.083 |
| 43 | Clemson | 11 | 0.827 | 0.075 |
| 44 | California | 3 | 0.208 | 0.069 |
| 45 | East Carolina | 3 | 0.172 | 0.057 |
| 46 | LSU | 7 | 0.365 | 0.052 |
| 47 | Middle Tennessee | 7 | 0.364 | 0.052 |
| 48 | Purdue | 3 | 0.150 | 0.050 |
| 49 | Stanford | 6 | 0.283 | 0.047 |
| 50 | Tulane | 5 | 0.206 | 0.041 |
| 51 | Georgia Southern | 5 | 0.150 | 0.030 |
| 52 | South Carolina | 5 | 0.124 | 0.025 |
| 53 | Virginia | 3 | 0.073 | 0.024 |
| 54 | Washington | 8 | 0.150 | 0.019 |
| 55 | Kansas State | 8 | 0.069 | 0.009 |
| 56 | Florida State | 7 | 0.058 | 0.008 |
| 57 | Penn State | 8 | 0.052 | 0.007 |
| 58 | Alabama | 14 | 0.055 | 0.004 |
| 59 | Boise State | 7 | 0.017 | 0.002 |
| 60 | Louisiana | 7 | 0.007 | 0.001 |
| 61 | Houston | 8 | -0.001 | 0.000 |
| 62 | Georgia Tech | 4 | -0.001 | 0.000 |
| 63 | Southern Mississippi | 5 | -0.016 | -0.003 |
| 64 | Fresno State | 5 | -0.018 | -0.004 |
| 65 | Baylor | 8 | -0.117 | -0.015 |
| 66 | Rice | 3 | -0.074 | -0.025 |
| 67 | Tulsa | 4 | -0.100 | -0.025 |
| 68 | Ole Miss | 6 | -0.150 | -0.025 |
| 69 | Arizona | 3 | -0.080 | -0.027 |
| 70 | Maryland | 5 | -0.143 | -0.029 |
| 71 | Utah State | 8 | -0.260 | -0.033 |
| 72 | Miami (OH) | 4 | -0.143 | -0.036 |
| 73 | NC State | 7 | -0.265 | -0.038 |
| 74 | Mississippi State | 10 | -0.379 | -0.038 |
| 75 | South Florida | 4 | -0.167 | -0.042 |
| 76 | Iowa | 8 | -0.348 | -0.044 |
| 77 | Oregon | 9 | -0.406 | -0.045 |
| 78 | Florida International | 3 | -0.157 | -0.052 |
| 79 | Iowa State | 5 | -0.295 | -0.059 |
| 80 | Florida | 8 | -0.536 | -0.067 |
| 81 | Virginia Tech | 7 | -0.499 | -0.071 |
| 82 | Western Michigan | 6 | -0.481 | -0.080 |
| 83 | Arkansas State | 7 | -0.584 | -0.083 |
| 84 | Pittsburgh | 8 | -0.674 | -0.084 |
| 85 | Ball State | 3 | -0.305 | -0.102 |
| 86 | USC | 7 | -0.780 | -0.111 |
| 87 | BYU | 9 | -1.028 | -0.114 |
| 88 | Utah | 8 | -0.975 | -0.122 |
| 89 | Missouri | 5 | -0.682 | -0.136 |
| 90 | Eastern Michigan | 5 | -0.688 | -0.138 |
| 91 | Memphis | 8 | -1.218 | -0.152 |
| 92 | UCLA | 5 | -0.838 | -0.168 |
| 93 | Boston College | 4 | -0.712 | -0.178 |
| 94 | Vanderbilt | 3 | -0.541 | -0.180 |
| 95 | Toledo | 7 | -1.274 | -0.182 |
| 96 | North Texas | 7 | -1.324 | -0.189 |
| 97 | West Virginia | 7 | -1.383 | -0.198 |
| 98 | Central Michigan | 6 | -1.253 | -0.209 |
| 99 | North Carolina | 8 | -1.870 | -0.234 |
| 100 | Arizona State | 7 | -1.678 | -0.240 |
| 101 | Coastal Carolina | 3 | -0.771 | -0.257 |
| 102 | Washington State | 8 | -2.217 | -0.277 |
| 103 | Auburn | 9 | -2.794 | -0.310 |
| 104 | Cincinnati | 7 | -2.179 | -0.311 |
| 105 | San José State | 3 | -0.937 | -0.312 |
| 106 | Northern Illinois | 4 | -1.287 | -0.322 |
| 107 | Miami | 7 | -2.459 | -0.351 |
| 108 | Colorado State | 5 | -1.801 | -0.360 |
| 109 | UT San Antonio | 4 | -1.469 | -0.367 |
| 110 | Bowling Green | 4 | -1.494 | -0.374 |
| 111 | Illinois | 3 | -1.136 | -0.379 |
| 112 | Michigan | 7 | -2.673 | -0.382 |
| 113 | Temple | 5 | -1.953 | -0.391 |
| 114 | South Alabama | 3 | -1.221 | -0.407 |
| 115 | Indiana | 4 | -1.985 | -0.496 |
| 116 | SMU | 3 | -1.916 | -0.639 |
These 5 games were the most surprising upsets in the past decade
| Year | Upset Probability | Winner | Loser |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 13% | UCF | Baylor |
| 2013 | 14% | Oklahoma | Alabama |
| 2016 | 19% | Idaho | Colorado State |
| 2018 | 19% | Texas | Georgia |
| 2013 | 19% | Texas Tech | Arizona State |
The following teams have played in fewer than 3 bowl games since 2013
| Team | Games | Performance | Perf/Game |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico State | 2 | 0.986 | 0.493 |
| Akron | 2 | 0.620 | 0.310 |
| Kent State | 2 | 0.267 | 0.134 |
| Old Dominion | 2 | 0.089 | 0.045 |
| New Mexico | 2 | 0.088 | 0.044 |
| UTEP | 2 | -0.409 | -0.205 |
| Connecticut | 2 | -0.572 | -0.286 |
| Colorado | 2 | -0.834 | -0.417 |
| Idaho | 1 | 0.815 | 0.815 |
| Charlotte | 1 | -0.315 | -0.315 |
| UNLV | 1 | -0.327 | -0.327 |
| Kansas | 1 | -0.473 | -0.473 |
| UMass | 0 | - | - |
| Texas State | 0 | - | - |