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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/darthnyan39 on 2023-11-10 09:36:41.
Louisville is currently ranked #11 in the CFP rankings. Seven teams are ahead in line for the fourth and final playoff spot. However, I think there’s still a path for them to get there.
10 Penn State & #9 Ole Miss:
Louisville will move up to #9 next Tuesday if Georgia and Michigan hand a second loss to two teams ahead of them- #10 Penn State and #9 Ole Miss.
8 Alabama
This leaves only two SEC teams left in contention- Georgia and Alabama. We can assume Alabama will win out and face Georgia in the SEC championship. If Georgia wins, 11-2 Alabama will not make the playoffs over 12-1 ACC champ Louisville. Especially because Louisville’s best win (FSU) is better than Alabamas best win (LSU).
7 Texas
Louisville needs Texas to lose a game, and preferably the Big 12 championship. Regardless, Louisville needs a two-loss Big 12 champion. A two loss P5 champion has never made the playoffs over a one loss P5 champion.
6 Oregon
Louisville will be rooting for Washington to win out. 15-0 PAC 12 champ will go to the playoffs. A second loss will knock Oregon out of contention.
4 Florida State
Assuming Louisville defeats Florida State in the ACC championship, they will leapfrog Florida State. Both teams will be 12-1, but Louisville will hold the ACC title and head to head.
This leaves just one last team between Louisville and the playoffs. Three spots are claimed
1: 13-0 SEC champ Georgia
2: 13-0 Big 10 champ Michigan
3: 13-0 PAC 12 champ Washington
The final spot will go to either 12-1 ACC champ Louisville or 11-1 Ohio State. Ohio State’s only loss would be away, at #2 Michigan. Louisville’s loss to Pitt is a lot worse. HOWEVER… Louisville will have momentum on their side. They would have just defeated #4 Florida State, which is a lot better than OSU’s win against Penn State. Both share a win over Notre Dame. Plus, Louisville has a conference championship title. A one loss P5 champ has never been left out of the Playoffs. Thus, Louisville jumps Ohio State for the final spot.
So if you’re a Louisville fan- this is what you want!
Georgia, Michigan, Washington win out. Texas loses a game.
And now that I’ve thought about this some more. It probably doesn’t even matter if Michigan wins the big ten or Washington wins the PAC 12. Louisville will still make it over 11-1 runner-up Washington and/or 11-1 runner-up Michigan. Probably would even make it over 11-1 runner-up Georgia. I think there’s a case to be made that Louisville only needs to win out and have Texas drop a game.
THE ONLY THING STANDING BETWEEN LOUISVILLE AND THE PLAYOFFS IS THEIRSELVES…AND TEXAS.