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The original was posted on /r/cfb by /u/chase45424 on 2023-11-08 23:46:22.
What’s up sickos,
I was watching my Cincinnati Bearcats this past weekend and following their game I thought to follow up on a hunch by checking their stats. Turns out, in 4/7 losses they’ve had more total yards than their opponents, and often by a good margin (e.g. the cats had 200 more total yards than BYU in an 8-point loss). I wanted to see if the cats were an outlier in this regard by looking at every FBS team’s total yards and points per game numbers.
Turns out, they are an outlier. In a bad way.
You can see in the above graphic that the Bearcats average about 425 total yards a game for just 20-ish points per game. Michigan, on the other hand, with the same number of total yards a game is averaging 42 points a game. Similarly, Iowa is averaging about 18 points a game (not far off from Cincinnati) but is doing with only a little more than half the total yards.
On the hand, teams like Penn State are outliers in the positive direction, averaging 10 more points a game than their total yards alone would suggest.
For good measure, I also generated the plot for yards allowed / points allowed - the axes are flipped so higher/rightward are better. Kinda wild to see four B1G teams near the top of FBS for fewest points allowed per game.
Like with my PGWE post, I will be updating this one week-to-week with season averages to date and results from that week’s games. Cheers ~
FBS vs. FCS matchups were excluded. The dashed black lines are the averages for the corresponding statistic. The dotted gray line is the line of best fit (which was about 10 yards/point).